Macroeconomic interpretation: The U.S. Senate has historically passed the (GENIUS Act), marking a key step forward for federal-level regulation of stablecoins. This bill, promoted by Republican Senator Bill Hagerty, establishes the first national regulatory framework for the chaotic stablecoin market. Although the bill still needs to be coordinated with the House version (the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability Promotion for Better Ledger Economy Act), its passage itself has released positive signals to the market about the gradual formation of a regulatory framework. As a core link connecting traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, the compliance process of stablecoins will significantly lower the entry threshold for mainstream capital.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting tonight to discuss easing supplementary leverage ratio requirements for large banks, which may exempt safe assets like government bonds, releasing liquidity for banks to participate in the government bond market. If the policy is implemented, along with the current market expectation of an 85.5% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates within the year, expectations for U.S. dollar liquidity easing will continue to rise. This macro backdrop subtly echoes Zhou Xiaochuan's warning at today's Lujiazui Forum: global monetary policy coordination remains in a 'three no state' (no institutions, no tools, no consensus), and the spillover effects of reserve currency policies are increasingly prominent. The potential pivot of the Federal Reserve is akin to throwing a stone into a global capital pond, with ripples spreading into the realm of risk assets.
On-chain data is revealing the resilient foundation of the Bitcoin bull market. Market analysis shows that the current selling behavior of long-term holders (LTH) has approached historical lows, and this typical 'holding back' state often corresponds to a market accumulation period. Historical experience indicates that after the occurrence of four similar signals in the past, Bitcoin's price has increased by 18%-25% within 6-8 weeks. More critically, changes in holding days momentum and on-chain indicators like the MVRV Z-score (currently close to neutral) further validate the accumulation of upward momentum. This phenomenon of 'old hands holding' resonates with technical signals—although the predictive power of the global liquidity model on BTC's trend has weakened, Bitcoin's performance in defending the support range of $105,000-$110,000 still aligns with its projected 13-week oscillation rhythm. If this technical structure holds firm, the impact of reaching $140,000 by the end of summer is not a fantasy.
However, beneath the prosperity lie structural challenges. The mining community is experiencing 'post-halving growing pains': data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin transaction fees dropped below 1% in June, hitting a new low since 2022. Although the value of block rewards remains high at $327,000 due to the increase in coin prices, Compass Mining points out that the overall income of the industry is still close to historical lows. This paradox of 'high coin price, low income' originates from insufficient network usage activity (average transaction fee is only $1.45) and intense competition in computing power. The harsh reality is forcing mining farms to accelerate technological iteration—only companies with efficient mining machines and low-cost electricity can weather the cycle, and industry reshuffling is inevitable.
Institutional dynamics reflect strategic adjustments of capital. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has sold nearly $100 million worth of Circle shares over two consecutive days as Circle's stock price reached a new high. This stands in stark contrast to its initial investment of $373 million on Circle's listing day. Although this operation has raised market concerns about stablecoin concept stocks, it essentially reflects institutions taking profits after regulatory frameworks became clearer, rather than pessimism about the industry. The deeper logic is that the advancement of the (GENIUS Act) has reduced policy uncertainty, and early investors choosing to take profits also aligns with the principles of capital operation.
Regulatory breakthroughs have opened the institutional ceiling, on-chain accumulation indicates upward momentum, and expectations of liquidity easing provide macro fuel. Despite the short-term challenges in mining and volatility from institutional rebalancing, the core logic of the market remains unchanged—global demand for non-sovereign value storage continues to expand. As the Federal Reserve approaches the interest rate cut window and the regulatory path for stablecoins becomes clearer, coupled with the fermentation of the on-chain accumulation cycle, Bitcoin is likely to welcome a new round of value discovery after a period of consolidation. Investors need to focus not only on price fluctuations but also on three major variables: mining clearing efficiency, the speed of regulatory details implementation, and the turning point of U.S. dollar liquidity, which will collectively outline the roadmap for Bitcoin to reach new highs.
#BTC Data analysis:
CoinAnk data shows that according to the latest market dynamics in June 2025, the proportion of Bitcoin network transaction fee income has sharply decreased to below 1%, the lowest level in three years. Although the increase in coin prices has kept block rewards high at $327,000, the total income of miners is still approaching historical lows, forming a significant 'revenue divergence' phenomenon. The root cause lies on one hand in the weakness of on-chain transaction activity (the average single transaction fee is only $1.45), and on the other hand in the inevitable result of intensified competition in overall network computing power. This dual pressure is driving deep transformations in mining: the iteration of efficient mining machines and layout of low-cost electricity have become key to survival, accelerating the industry reshuffle process.
From a market impact perspective, the continuous shrinkage of the proportion of transaction fees may undermine the network's security foundation. Miners' income overly reliant on block rewards will amplify the impact of price fluctuations on computing power, especially against the background of block subsidies being reduced to 3.125 BTC after the halving. If computing power significantly decreases due to profitability pressures, it may weaken the Bitcoin network's ability to withstand a 51% attack. In the medium to long term, this structural dilemma will compel the accelerated implementation of layer-two expansion solutions and promote mining companies to optimize operational efficiency through mergers and acquisitions (such as CleanSpark's acquisition of mining sites). Although the short-term market volatility index has dropped to a four-month low, the continuous low holding volume of miners below the bull market cycle level (1.8 million BTC) suggests that increased selling pressure may constrain BTC's upward price potential.
