This week's preview (6.16-6.22), Global Central Bank Week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming; BTC ETF net inflow of $1.37 billion, ETH ETF continues five weeks of net inflow.

Directory:

1. Large token unlocking data for this week;

2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly price changes of popular coins/fund flows in sectors;

3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;

4.#BTC Liquidation map data interpretation;

5. Key macro events of the week and key previews and interpretations for the crypto market.

1. Large token unlocking data for this week;

Coinank data shows that #ZK , ZKJ, ARB and other tokens will face large unlocks this week, among which:

ZKsync (ZK) will unlock approximately 76.8 million tokens at 4 PM on June 17, accounting for 20.91% of the current circulation, valued at about $39 million;

Polyhedra Network (#ZKJ ) will unlock approximately 15.53 million tokens at 8 AM on June 19, accounting for 5.04% of the current circulation, valued at about $30.3 million;

Arbitrum (#ARB ) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens at 9 PM on June 16, accounting for 1.91% of the current circulation, valued at about $30.2 million;

Sonic (S) will unlock approximately 47.63 million tokens at 8 AM on June 18, accounting for 1.65% of the current circulation, valued at about $15.8 million;

SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 72.65 million tokens at 8 AM on June 22, accounting for 16.88% of the current circulation, valued at about $12 million;

ApeCoin (#APE ) will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens at 8:30 PM on June 17, accounting for 1.95% of the current circulation, valued at about $10.6 million;

Lista DAO (LISTA) will unlock approximately 33.44 million tokens at 5 PM on June 20, accounting for 19.36% of the current circulation, valued at about $7 million;

Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock approximately 26.25 million tokens at 8 AM on June 18, accounting for 6.58% of the current circulation, valued at about $6.9 million.

We believe that the concentration of multiple token unlocks this week may have some impact on the market, and attention should be focused on the scale of unlocks and circulation impact. The ZK unlock ratio reaches 20.91% (approximately 76.8 million tokens), far exceeding the usual monthly unlocking ratio for regular projects (usually below 1%), which may trigger short-term selling pressure. Similar high-ratio projects like LISTA (19.36%) and ID (16.88%) also carry liquidity shock risks.

There are also market sentiment and historical references; ZK tokens previously saw a 40% drop in valuation after their launch, and the number of active addresses halved, reflecting the market's sensitivity to high liquidity tokens. Although ARB has a low unlocking ratio (1.91%), historical data shows that large unlocks are often accompanied by price volatility, necessitating caution regarding chain reactions.

Additionally, there is a combination of macro environment and risks; the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are pushing up gold prices, putting overall pressure on the crypto market, and concentrated unlocks at this time may amplify selling sentiment. Especially for mid- to small-cap tokens like ZKJ (5.04%) and MELANIA (6.58%), insufficient liquidity may exacerbate price volatility.

It is recommended that investors distinguish the nature of unlocks (team/investor release vs. ecological incentives), prioritize attention to projects with high circulation ratios, and monitor the movements of major holders using on-chain data. Historical evidence shows that if there is a lack of ecological benefits to support after unlocking, the probability of a short-term correction is relatively high.

2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly price changes of popular coins/fund flows in sectors

CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, the crypto market, categorized by concept sectors, only the Arbitrum ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, Binance Smart Chain, and fan tokens realized a net inflow of funds, while Launchpool saw a smaller outflow.

In the last 7 days, the list of token price increases is as follows (selecting the top 500 by market capitalization), ALT, AERO, SCRT, MNDE, and AB tokens have performed relatively well, and strong tokens can continue to be prioritized for trading opportunities this week.

3. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics.

CoinAnk data shows that last week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $1.37 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing a net inflow of $1.1159 billion.

The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $130.263 billion, with the ETF net asset ratio (the market value relative to Bitcoin's total market value) reaching 6.18%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $45.309 billion.

Last week, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $528 million, continuing five weeks of net inflow, with none of the nine ETFs experiencing net outflow.

We believe that the Bitcoin ETF market is showing a strong recovery trend. The Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.37 billion in a single week, significantly reversing the outflow trend of April (which saw a weekly outflow of $713 million). BlackRock's IBIT continues to lead the market, contributing $1.116 billion in inflows, accounting for 81.5% of the total inflow for the week, highlighting institutional funds' concentrated preference for its products. The total net value of Bitcoin ETFs continues to rise, reflecting a significant long-term capital accumulation effect.

Ethereum ETF demonstrates unexpectedly strong resilience. It has achieved five consecutive weeks of net inflow, with none of the nine products experiencing net outflow, contrasting sharply with the early Ethereum ETF launch, which saw a net outflow of $113 million the day after. The continued inflow trend validates Standard Chartered's predictive model—Ethereum ETFs may attract funds in the range of $15-45 billion, and the current performance may lay the foundation for subsequent fund scale expansion.

Market structural changes are worth noting. The net asset ratio of Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded 6%, a 0.7 percentage point increase from 5.48% in November 2024, indicating that traditional financial channels are accelerating their penetration into the crypto market. BlackRock's IBIT has a historical cumulative inflow ratio of 50% of the entire market, and its dominant position may reinforce the institutional characteristics of Bitcoin's pricing power. The continued inflow of Ethereum ETFs indicates that investor demand for non-Bitcoin asset allocation is heating up, which may promote the diversified development of the crypto market.

ETF fund flows confirm that institutional investors are systematically increasing their allocation to crypto assets, with traditional asset management giants like BlackRock becoming core channels, while the robust performance of Ethereum ETFs is expected to reshape their market positioning. However, caution is needed regarding the ongoing outflow risks of established products like Grayscale, as well as the potential disruptions of macro policy changes on fund flows.

4. BTC liquidation map data.

CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks through $112,000 and hits a new all-time high, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $7.32 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $102,600, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $4.29 billion.

We believe that the current market has formed a key liquidation threshold in the range of $102,600 to $112,000, reflecting the fierce contest between bulls and bears. If BTC breaks through $112,000 (creating a new all-time high), the $7.32 billion short liquidation intensity may trigger a "short squeeze" effect—many shorts being forced to close will accelerate buying pressure, creating a positive feedback loop that pushes prices up. Conversely, if it falls below $102,600, the $4.29 billion long liquidation intensity exposes the vulnerability of leveraged long positions, potentially triggering a "long squeeze" chain reaction, leading to panic selling and amplifying short-term downside risk.

It should be noted that liquidation intensity is not the actual amount to be liquidated, but rather a comparison of the density of neighboring liquidation clusters to measure the potential intensity of market liquidity shocks when prices are reached. Current data highlights two major characteristics: the risk exposure continues to expand, compared to early 2025 (e.g., the short position corresponding to breaking $104,000 was $260 million), the current liquidation scale has shown exponential growth, indicating that market leverage and volatility are rising in sync; long position risks are more concentrated, although the short liquidation intensity is numerically higher, the long liquidation threshold ($102,600) is much closer to the current price level, and historical data shows that this support area has a dense accumulation of long positions, making price elasticity weak, and the destructive potential of downward catalysts may be stronger.

Bitcoin faces bidirectional liquidity risk, and investors should be cautious of market resonance effects triggered by key price level breakthroughs.

5. Key macro events of the week and key previews and interpretations for the crypto market.

CoinAnk data shows:

June 16, Monday: U.S. June New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index; Trump Group will release an important announcement;

June 17, Tuesday: U.S. May retail sales month-on-month, import price index month-on-month, and industrial output month-on-month;

Nansen will launch the first quarter point program;

June 18, Wednesday: U.S. initial jobless claims;

Sonic Labs will launch the second season of S airdrops;

June 19, Thursday: The Federal Reserve announces the interest rate decision, and Powell holds a press conference; the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England announce their interest rate decisions; U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day.

Binance Alpha is changing its airdrop rules, and from June 19, it will distribute in two phases.

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week (announced on June 19) is the focus, expected to maintain interest rates unchanged due to easing inflation and strengthened resilience in employment. The expectation for rate cuts has weakened to about 0.45 percentage points. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales data (June 17) will reveal the impact of tariffs on consumption; weak data could suppress risk appetite; while initial jobless claims (June 18) exceeding expectations could support the Federal Reserve in extending the high interest rate period. Additionally, the U.S. stock market will be closed (June 19), which may amplify volatility in the crypto market, especially in times of liquidity shortage.

In terms of the crypto market, airdrop activities are active but rule adjustments are significant: Binance Alpha will distribute in two phases starting June 19, prioritizing high-scoring users before opening to those with lower thresholds, aiming to incentivize participation and reduce unclaimed rates; Nansen and Sonic Labs' new point system emphasizes the cancellation of passive mechanisms, shifting to active interactions to enhance fairness. Researchers believe that the Federal Reserve's policy wait-and-see combined with optimized airdrop rules may boost market sentiment in the short term, but caution is needed regarding unexpected macro data (such as a decline in retail sales) triggering risk-averse sentiment spilling over to crypto assets. Overall, this week is a turning point for policies and market rules, and investors should pay attention to optimizing point strategies to cope with potential volatility.