Brothers, the structure on June 9 is very critical; is it the starting point for a big drop, or a trap for inducing shorts and washing positions?
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I. Structure and Phase Analysis
From the trend perspective, this wave of Bitcoin has highly conformed to the structural characteristics of a false breakout that induces buying:
✅【Short-term】
After breaking through the upper resistance and quickly pulling back, it engulfs the bullish candlestick + increased selling volume;
MACD shows a top divergence, SRSI is rapidly declining from the overbought zone;
Currently testing around 105K FVG; if breached, it will confirm the spike and drop and enter the decline phase.
✅【Medium-term】
This round of rebound from 103K to 106K failed to sustain, constituting a 'failed attempt to rise';
Currently in a false breakout → early stage of decline, typical phase of bullish escape.
II. Key Structure Judgments
105.2K~104.8K
Support zone
And it is the area of previous high retest
106.5K~107.2K
Resistance zone
Spike and drop, short-seller targeting area
103.5K~104.3K
Liquidity target
If 105K is breached, the main force is likely to retest and sweep this area
This is the logic of 'smart money': sweeping liquidity and then reversing to build positions, taking paths you don't understand and earning money you can understand.
III. Suggestions for Operation Strategy
🎯【Short-term Operation Strategy: 1H~4H】
📉 Bearish opportunity:
If 105K is effectively breached: can short to the 104K area, with a stop loss suggested at 105.6K;
If the rebound near 106K is blocked again: forming a second spike and drop structure, can lightly short with a target of 104.3K.
📈 Bullish opportunity:
Not recommended to enter the market now;
Only when a spike and bottom divergence occur near 104.3K, can lightly short for a short-term rebound, targeting a recovery to 105.8K.
📊【Medium-term Operation Strategy: 12H~1D】
If the price quickly rebounds after retesting 103.5K, then the medium-term bullish structure is still intact;
If the daily closing price falls below 103K, it basically confirms the downtrend, looking at support levels of 100K or even lower.
IV. Common Questions in Real Trading
❓ Is it suitable to go long now?
Not recommended. All major indicators are trending downwards, the structure has turned bearish, wait for the support below to be tested before considering a buy.
❓ Can I short now?
Yes. Currently, it is a typical pullback phase after a failed inducement, bearish opportunities are opening up; if 105K is confirmed as broken, can capture the first wave of downward movement.
V. Reflection on Taking Orders: Are you observing the structure, or guessing the emotions?
This wave of rebound, after a quick spike from the 106K high, has rapidly tanked; many still think it's a false drop, but smart money has quietly exited.
Many retail investors like to 'wait for a confirmation', but you must understand that when the market confirms, the meat is already gone.
📉 The technical structure is clear, the main force is transitioning from an inducing buying structure to a selling phase.
It's not that the market is too cruel; it's that you don't look at the structure, only feelings.
It's not that you can't make money, but that you have no plan at all.
VI. Conclusion
This is not the end of a sharp decline; it may just be the beginning.
But what you need to do is not to guess the bottom, but to capture trends, follow the structure, operate against human nature, and make smart money.