The clearer the structure, the more one feels — now is not the time to impulsively go long.

I. Short-term structure: Increased risk of false bullish, bears may welcome a turning point


Currently, BTC is in a key supply area on the 1H-8H charts, with rebound momentum clearly waning, and the price stuck in the dense FVG area of 106500-107000, showing multiple signs of halting. It resembles a distribution structure during a rebound, rather than a consolidation before a rise.

Short-term tops are continuously accumulating liquidity, with strong false bullish sentiment, a typical 'pull a knife to kill the bulls' scenario may be brewing.

Indicator signals: Stoch RSI has entered extreme overbought territory, and the MACD red bars have not expanded — insufficient strength, short positions need to be extremely cautious.

✅ Conclusion: In the short term, it is a false bullish structure, with short positions accumulating. If 107000 is not broken upwards, the chances for short positions are greater than for long positions.



II. Long-term trend: Redistribution is not over, weak rebounds are not reversals


From the daily to weekly perspective, the current rebound is merely a technical correction after the last decline, with no evidence of a trend reversal.

Structurally, it belongs to a redistribution structure with oscillations.

Key FVG: The daily 109000-111000 has not yet been touched, which is a potential ultimate false bullish area in the future.

Indicator status: Although Stoch RSI is rebounding from a low, MACD remains in a death cross state, indicating a weak pullback.

✅ Conclusion: Long-term bearish sentiment remains unchanged; this rebound seems more like a 'break-even opportunity' for those who haven't exited, rather than the starting point for a new main upward wave.



III. Current operational suggestions: Understand the structure, respond cautiously


🎯 Short Selling
106800-107200 shows a false bullish pattern
Break above 107500
TP1: 105000, TP2: 104000, TP3: 102500


🧘 Long Position
Break above 108000 + Accumulation with volume
Break below 107000
TP: Above 110000


🧊 Watch and Wait
If not breaking 106500, it's advisable to wait
——
Waiting for clearer structural signals




IV. Position allocation suggestions

✅ Main Strategy for Short Selling: Place 30% of orders in batches at 106800-107200

❌ Long Position Watch: Currently no signal to go long, wait until it stabilizes above 108000

V. Final question: Are you buying at the false bullish top, or waiting for the bearish reversal?


The market will never tell you 'this is the top', but the structure will.

Don't be fooled by short-term bullish candles, and don't get cut by FOMO in the group.

At this position, it is not the time to 'wait for another rise', but rather the stage of 'run if it can't rise'.


Don't rush, the real big opportunity often lies in the moment after the script reverses.


$BTC #比特币