Family, as this round of market has gone this far, are you a calm trader, or an emotional liquidator?

Many in the market are shouting 'the pullback is over, it's time to buy the dip,' but I just want to say: the rebound you see is a short's respite, not a bull's rebirth.


This wave of BTC decline is not an end, but the beginning of a larger decline.


One, structure precedes price; the trend is already clear.

BTC's current structure has clearly entered the Markdown phase:

  • The previous top at 112000 was the distribution peak;

  • The current retracement is not a bottom, but the last supply test to replenish the FVG area;

  • Every rebound gets stuck in the FVG supply zone (105400~105800), unable to go down or up, a typical bait for longs.

  • The structure has turned bearish;

  • Internal structure shows: bearish liquidity distribution is still not fully released;

  • Before breaking 103800, do not rule out repeated baiting tests.

Two, technical indicators: cyclical resonance downward, still dominated by bears.

From the MACD and Stoch RSI from 1H to 1D:

  • 1H/2H/4H indicators are all diverging, with very weak bullish rebound momentum;

  • 8H~1D MACD death cross continues, Stoch RSI is stalled at high levels, volume-price coordination continues to diverge;

  • Lack of signs of bullish turnover, with funds still flowing out during the day.

A rebound only provides a better exit opportunity for those short, not a reversal signal for bulls.



Three, strategy suggestions: wait for the bottom, short with evidence.

📌 Short position opportunity:

  • Entry range: 105400~105800 (FVG overlapping supply zone);

  • Stop loss suggestion: above 106000;

  • Target range: 103800~104200;


📌 Mid-term layout for short positions:

  • If it breaks below 103800, you can add positions, targeting the structure bottom around 98000~100000;

  • If it can't stabilize above 104500, set a protective take profit and reposition.


📌 Long opportunity?

  • Not recommended for now.Only consider mid-term long positions if BTC breaks 98000 and builds a Spring+Test structure.



Four, what is the essence of this market trend?

A structural 'rebound trap' to bait longs, is to hit harder.

Many people ask me: 'Is it time to buy the dip?'

I just want to say: trends are not judged by feelings; the structure changes first, then the price follows.

What you see now is a structurally confirmed bearish continuation, not a bottoming accumulation pattern.

Buying the dip is not in place; it only makes you lose faster.



Five, trading insights: don't be a slave to emotions.

I've seen too many traders chase highs and kill lows, FOMO on surges, and break down on drops.

When I was at my worst, my account crashed from over 100,000 USDT to only 30,000 USDT; one wrong step leads to more mistakes.

What I have endured is not luck, but:

  1. Have a system for entry and exit rules;

  2. Strictly implement stop loss and take profit;

  3. Never trade in the ambiguous zone—if you don't understand, stay out of the market.

  4. If you're still trading based on feelings, brother, I advise you to leave early. This is not a gambling table; it's a battlefield.


Six, a note at the end:

You cannot earn money beyond your cognitive range.

You also cannot withstand volatility beyond the system.

📌 My advice:

  • Don't chase long, don't fantasize; this is not the bottom.

  • If you have a system, trade according to the system; if you don't have a system, wait for the next trend confirmation.



$BTC