Bulls don't die in the downtrend, but in the 'inducing longs' spring dream.

1. Structural judgment: High-level 'inducing longs' sideways, or a prelude to redistribution.


Current price is running in the range of 105,500-106,400, just stuck in the previous high FVG supply area, after a failed high, it has clearly retreated. From a pattern perspective, it is closer to a non-continuation high retreat → horizontal accumulation → redistribution structure.


Indicators are also giving clear warnings:

  • 1H, 2H, and 4H Stoch RSI are all in a death cross.

  • MACD top divergence + momentum bars turning green.

  • The FVG support at 104,800 below has not been effectively tested.

✅ Conclusion: The main force is more inclined to build an inducing long structure here, then further push down to retest previous low support.


2. Should we go long? Or should we short?


🟥 Short opportunity:



The three major logical resonances of cost ratio, probability, and space make shorting still the optimal option.



  • Short gold entry range: 106000-106400

  • If the rebound stalls + volume doesn't follow → short directly!

  • Target level: 105,000 / 104,400

⚠ Note: If the rebound high is quickly recaptured, you can add to your short position.



🟩 Long opportunity?


Sorry, none available for now!

  • MACD is still in a death cross downtrend;

  • Stoch RSI is crossing down from a high position;

  • Momentum bars are green, bottom divergence signal has not formed.

Only if it breaks below around 104,200, combined with a volume Pinbar + MACD golden cross, can entry be considered.



3. Strategy summary: Trading recommendations from a cyclical perspective.


Current structural operation suggestions are for short-term (1H-4H) high-level construction and redistribution structure; the risk of inducing longs is high, maintain a bearish mindset. Below 106,400, light short positions can be taken. For medium-term (8H-12H), in a dense area of chips, wait for directional confirmation through oscillation and consolidation, do not chase the rise. Long-term (daily) is a strong oscillation in the uptrend, but momentum is insufficient, support needs confirmation.

4. Insights from the trading room: Inducing long positions is just a change of posture for harvesting.


When you expect a breakout at high levels, the main force is waiting for you to leverage.


This is not trading; this is the art of harvesting. Beneath the candlestick structure lies the intent of capital, the game of human nature.


After inducing longs, there is a retest; after blind longs, there is being trapped.



5. Current recommendations

🟢 Long? Don't rush, wait a bit longer; a lower shadow line + increased volume is the signal.

🔴 Short? High cost-performance ratio, reasonable position, structural matching; can short if it rebounds above 106000!

6. Conclusion: Caution is the first principle of this market.

At high levels, bulls and bears are deadlocked, good news is exhausted, and trading volume is shrinking—this is not a signal for the market to continue rising, but a standard script for the main force to pull up and offload.


Friends, the next opportunity to make money is not to go all in now, but to wait for the inducing longs to be washed out and the structure to retest before entering.


The market fluctuates, only risk control remains unchanged.

The market is tempting, only patience is king.

$BTC