Brothers, I don't want to say too much today. The market has reached a critical time window—will it be the 'starting point for a new round of rise' or 'the last lure before a drop'? After reading this article, you may have the answer.



1. Structural analysis: spring may not be a real spring.


First, let's talk about the structure—viewed from a structural perspective, the current major coin is a typical pullback after a distribution phase.

The daily and 12-hour candlesticks show that although a long lower shadow has formed near 100K, possibly indicating a rebound or shakeout, I only trust 'structural confirmation', not 'emotional speculation'.

The premise for a true rebound is that the structure is complete and confirmed by a retest. Currently, it has only 'touched', without confirmation.



2. Momentum assessment: supply and demand imbalance, rebound is weak


The MACD red bars are shrinking, RSI is retreating after being overbought, and the momentum is already starting to 'leak'.

The more critical point is that the current price is exactly at the previous liquidity gap, and once it goes above 105K, it gets suppressed, indicating that this is not a channel but a 'minefield'.

The market's feedback is clear—it's still not a good time to get in long.



3. From the SMC perspective: whether the support below can hold is key


From the SMC perspective:

  • In the 101.5K~103K range, there are indeed multiple overlapping FVGs + previous low retests + long lower shadows, which theoretically is a bullish ambush area.


  • But if you go all in here, you are testing the main players' patience with your account—if the main players haven't confirmed the structure, what are you confirming?


  • Bullish strategies must wait for a breakout above 105K → retest confirmation → stabilization, only then is it with the trend; otherwise, it's just betting on the future with faith.



4. Bearish perspective: when it's time to act, don't hesitate.


On the contrary, the bearish perspective is clearer:


  • Currently at the supply zone (104.5K~105K)


  • RSI divergence, MACD contraction


  • If it can't stay above 105K for several hours in a row, then this position is the ideal entry point for bears.


  • Remember this: the more 'confusing' the market appears, the less you should chase; but once you 'understand', you should execute decisively.



5. Strategy advice: this time, don't befriend emotions.


✅ Short-term operation (1H~4H):


  • If a top candlestick pattern (Pin Bar, Engulfing) appears at 104.5K, you can short with a light position.

  • Take profit at 102.5K, stop loss above 105.2K



❌ Not recommended to go long:

  • The structure has not broken, the rebound is weak, and recklessly going long can easily lead to being trapped.



✅ Medium to long-term layout:

  • Wait for another test of 101K, combined with volume increase + long lower shadow + MACD golden cross, consider entering a long position.




6. Friends who want to go long, take note:


Many people ask me: 'Can we go long now?'

I can only say:


"What you are doing is not trading, it's guessing. It's not building a position, it's praying."



The structure hasn't broken, the signals are unclear, and the emotional rise is just to wash you out. Don't be fooled by the word 'Spring'; it's not spring, it's bait.



7. Friends who want to short, feel free:


If you ask, 'Can we short now?'

I would say: you can try a light position, but don't chase the shorts.

Wait for the candlestick pattern to confirm the top before acting, grasp the rhythm well, and don't be intimidated by a single red candlestick. Shorting also requires discipline, it's not just about calling out joyfully.



8. In conclusion: trading is not heroism, it's a probability game.


Whether the market is good or not is actually not important.

Recognizing yourself is the most critical thing.

When you clearly know that it won't go above 105K but still hope it can rise a bit, that's wishful trading. And wishing is the root cause of countless liquidations.

Trading is always a game against human nature; what you see are candlesticks, but the main players see your psychological price levels.

In the market, we don't seek to never lose, but to live just a bit longer than others.


Because surviving gives you the qualification to profit.


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