Federal Reserve policy disrupts the market! BTC rebounds to 86500 and then plummets, has the bearish trend been established?
#美SEC将放弃对Ripple的上诉 Yesterday's BTC market was quite thrilling. In the afternoon analysis, I mentioned the risk of a short-term pullback, and sure enough, it was pressed down after reaching around 86300 in the evening. I decisively entered a short position at 86000, and it dipped to around 84700, easily earning 1300 points on the short. Then, when it rebounded to 86547, I jumped in with a long position again, earning another 1800 points. By the end of the day, both long and short positions were profitable, totaling 3100 points in profit.
Looking at today's market, BTC is still fluctuating in the triangular range of 82500-84800, with the key short-term point around 84800. If you're aggressive, I suggest going short directly in the range of 85300-85000; if you're more conservative, wait for yesterday's high of 87500 to take action. The support below is still at 82500-82800; if it holds, you can go long, but if it breaks, we’ll need to look for support at 81000.
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are opening up, and the price is hovering around the middle band at 84000. Although it closed with a bullish candle after five consecutive bearish ones, the MACD is still in a death cross state, and the bearish momentum hasn’t fully released. The 2-hour Bollinger Bands are contracting, and the TD indicator shows a red 9, indicating a possible short-term rebound, but if it doesn’t break above the middle band at 85300, it’s still a short. Additionally, both MA5 and MA10 are in a bearish arrangement. Although the RSI is oversold and requires a rebound, the overall trend still leans weak, and the larger direction remains to short at high rebounds.
Afternoon trading strategy:
Go short in the range of 87300-87000, targeting 86000-85000, with a stop loss at 87800. This position is yesterday's high point, and the pressure is evident, making the short position safe.
Go long in the range of 82500-82800, targeting 83800-84800, with a stop loss at 82000. This support level has been validated multiple times; if it breaks, it may accelerate the decline, but if it holds, the probability of a rebound is high.
If it reaches the range of 88000-87500, enter a medium to long-term short position directly, targeting 83000-80000. This position is a previous strong resistance level, which now becomes a strong barrier. If it cannot break through, a significant drop is likely.
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