-币小言-

Summarized some of the major discussions from yesterday's feedback

First, let's talk about public chains:
HYPE: Decentralized exchange, but currently there are a lot of black materials, not truly decentralized.

HBAR: The technology is average, nothing remarkable, and the TVL is also disappointing, with no star projects.

SUI: A new public chain dark horse, TVL has surpassed APT, although it faced early IEO controversies, the trend is promising, worth monitoring.

SEI: A new parallel computing chain, TVL was once strong, but be cautious before 90% is unlocked.

STX: The only layer-two option for Bitcoin that can compete, although the ecosystem is weak, it has a leading position.

TIA: A new narrative of modularity, the unlocking potential is significant, wait until 80% is released to reassess.

AVAX/ADA: Old-school technology, slow development, purely relying on community faith, not a long-term choice.

ALGO/KAS/VET: Outdated projects, lacking both ecosystem and innovation, can be ignored.

Now, let's look at DeFi:
MKR: Transitioning to RWA, solid foundation with DAI, a long-established player.

AAVE: Leading in lending, dominant in TVL, a safe bet.

ENA: A new promising dark horse, TVL is resilient but unlocking is imminent, can be followed for the short term.

Platform tokens:
BGB: This round saw significant growth, but platform tokens depend on the exchange's future empowerment, be cautious of any sell-offs.

KCS: A platform token, average performance, lacks explosive points.

Application tokens:
TAO: Leader in the AI sector, integrating with Z+L, worth tracking closely.

RNDR: DePIN + cloud rendering is a necessity, highly practical, optimistic for the long term.

HNT: An old player in DePIN, currently stagnant, to be avoided.

In this market cycle, the saying "spot does not fear, not selling does not lose" can be regarded as the biggest lie. It is merely a way for investors to self-hypnotize.

In reality, market risks are ever-present; whether holding spot or other assets, one is by no means outside the realm of risk. The truly unbreakable eternal iron law is effective risk control.

In a bull market, investors compete to see who can achieve higher returns. At that time, the market is optimistic, opportunities abound, and profit growth seems to become the main theme of investment.

However, once a bear market arrives, the market environment rapidly deteriorates, and asset prices continue to decline. At this point, the competition is about who has the greater ability to survive in a harsh market.

Survival means preserving strength, means holding firm in the winter of the market, waiting for the arrival of the next spring.

In 2025, a year filled with unknowns and challenges, I sincerely wish that both you and I can become that resilient hunter.

Successfully navigating through the thick fog of the market, enduring the difficult years of the bear market, and steadily living to the moment when the dawn of the next bull market appears, ready to embrace new investment opportunities and continue writing our own wealth chapter. #美国加征关税

Last night, it was predicted that Bitcoin would drop below 80,000, and this morning it significantly fell to 77,000.

The weekly and 3-day lines indicate that the downtrend is not over, and there is a high probability that 76,600 will be broken. After the market hits the bottom and rebounds, the 3-day line at the 120 position will be tested for the second time. The support levels below are 76,000, 75,100, 73,500, and 71,600 in order.

A large gap appeared at the CME opening, and it is expected to break below 76,600, rebounding to 80,000 - 84,000 after finding support at 76,000 - 75,100. The 4-hour line is oversold, and the downside space is limited. Around 76,000 is a good time to position for spot trading; the more it drops, the more it is bought, and the greater the subsequent upward potential with a larger drop. #鲍威尔发言

Everyone might have forgotten one thing, which is that Trump is a very capable person, smarter, more strategic, more intelligent, and more experienced than the average person. If we think he is dumber than us, then it is likely that we are mistaken.

I increasingly feel that his trade war may be winning, which will bring huge benefits to the United States, making it stronger, and the US stock market will experience a century-level rebound.

Over the weekend, I kept hearing that countries are yielding to Trump's tariff policies, and countries that choose to surrender on tariffs are becoming mainstream. Australia, India, New Zealand, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Israel have directly softened their stance and expressed acceptance. European countries are already fragmented with their own thoughts, and our neighboring country Vietnam's Secretary Su Lin directly called the United States, willing to reduce tariffs on the US to zero. Currently, the only country in the world that has announced tariff increases in retaliation is China.

Don't underestimate Vietnam. According to US data, in 2024, Vietnam's trade surplus with the US will reach 123.5 billion dollars, second only to China, the EU, and Mexico. It is definitely a major trading power with the US, so Vietnam's stance has significant demonstrative significance.

Objectively speaking, if most countries in the world choose to accept reciprocal tariffs, after the US tariffs decrease, it will certainly benefit US exports! The competitiveness of foreign trade exports will soar, and export volumes may rapidly increase, leading American companies to make huge profits! Corresponding government tax revenues will start to increase significantly! Then regarding imports, the US is the world's largest market. Although tariffs have been greatly increased, countries still need to export to the US; it is impossible to give up the US market. Therefore, US tariff revenues will surge!

US export companies making huge profits + US government tax revenues increasing + US government tariff revenues increasing = The US government and businesses becoming wealthier! Naturally, with wealth, all other issues will not be a problem. Issues like American residents not being able to buy Chinese televisions, or not being able to find slippers and toys in supermarkets, will be easily resolved.

Of course, this should be a good thing for the cryptocurrency sector. The US economy is growing, and the US stock market will surely rebound strongly, and the cryptocurrency market, which has always followed the US stock market, should also benefit and improve! So perhaps the current difficulties are just the pains of a profound transformation, and let us wait and see!

BTC is still forming a weekly U-shape. At this rate, don't even mention stopping for 3 days.

Even if we stop for two weeks, going out to play for ten days to half a month, the weekly chart will still be in a U-shaped reversal trend when we return.

I continue to hold the original view, with a small target for BTC to close above $90,000 by the end of April, approaching the previous high before interest rate cuts are implemented. (110K)

Order of weekly U-shaped reversal:
① OKB and BNB brokers lead the way out of the weekly U-shaped reversal.
② BTC market then follows with the weekly U-shaped reversal.
③ Altcoins collectively catch up after BTC continues to hit new highs.

The view remains the same as before, no need to change at all. Brokers lead → BTC follows → Altcoins rise collectively. #币安投票上币

Yesterday's market was perfectly grasped, first shorting in the range of 84200-84500, then buying near 82800 after the drop, it was truly perfect!

Today's market trend is relatively weak, not as strong as last night!

The intraday resistance is roughly at 84800-85000, with support placed at 82800-83100, so high shorts and low longs are advisable!

The main focus is still on the fluctuations in the early morning, regarding tariff decisions! #巨鲸动向

Currently, the upward momentum of Bitcoin has clearly slowed down, facing significant retracement pressure in the short term. From a technical perspective, if the price fails to effectively break through the previous high point and continues to hover below the middle track, then bearish signals will become more apparent. The focus in the afternoon remains bearish, with operations centered around high shorts!

Afternoon personal trading suggestions:

Bitcoin: Short at 84700-85200, target around 82000!
Ethereum: Short at 1880-1900, target around 1780! #美国加征关税

The current price of GUN is 2.82.

The new listing that went online at nine o'clock last night is currently in a consolidation phase.

You can consider a small position with light leverage for short-term entertainment.

It is not recommended to hold long-term, as newly listed assets often have a 'high open, low follow' trading pattern.

Set a stop loss at 2.5, aim for around 3.2-3.5 for profit, and withdraw once you gain, don't hesitate. #AmericanBitcoin发布会

In fact, both stop-loss and take-profit depend on each person's risk tolerance. A 20% drop may be nothing to some, but to others, it feels like the end of the world.

So, let me teach you a precise judgment method — when you feel anxious and troubled every day holding a certain coin, such as ACT, PNUT, DOGE, BOME, or PEPE, then you should just sell it. In the end, whether you lose or win, you have to accept it.

A person who hesitates in whatever they do, constantly fixated on past causes, blaming themselves or others, finds it very difficult to succeed in anything.

From the liquidation heat map data of BTC over the last 3 days,
there is a large amount of long liquidity waiting to be cleared in the 87400-91000 area, with key positions at 88650 and 89600.
Downward, there is a large amount of short liquidity waiting to be cleared in the 85700-83200 area. #美国加征关税

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating above 87,000. If the price breaks through the resistance, there will be greater chances for a rally in the future. From the daily chart, after Bitcoin has stood above the 200-day moving average, the trend is still more inclined towards bullishness. After the short-term surge breaking through the 87,000 resistance, it has not fallen back down again; currently, the trend is a fluctuating one.

In our trading, we should retain a bit of patience. The doji formed on the daily line cannot be considered a high-level doji, as it is not at a high level or a resistance point, so it should not be seen as a short-selling signal. In trading, the 87,000 resistance turns into support, so we can make our layout around this level.

We recommend an entry point at 87,000 to establish a long position, with a supplementary buy at 85,700, a stop loss at 85,000, and an initial target of 90,000. After reaching that, we will see if it can continue to break through near the short-term high of 92,800. The pressure for this rebound is around 95,500.

Highlights on March 25

The Dogecoin Foundation has officially launched its Dogecoin reserves through its newly established commercial entity, completing the purchase of the first 10 million Doge, with a total reserve fund of 1 billion dollars.

The White House is considering adjustments to the tariffs originally scheduled for April 2, easing market sentiment and extending an olive branch in advance.

BTC pointed out yesterday to focus on the level around 885 above. The intraday high was also around this level, touching it and then pulling back. Currently, the overall trend is in a range of fluctuations, with limited upward rebounds. There are signs of a pullback on the four-hour chart, and if it hits the bottom, it will continue to rebound. Pay attention to the support level below at 85-545k, and the range above is 875-885.

ETH yesterday touched the 2100 level on the daily chart, in a high-level fluctuation. This morning, it synchronized with Bitcoin for a pullback. We have been emphasizing that a stabilization in the 2040-2060 range on the four-hour chart is needed to continue rising. This range of fluctuations is also good; a pullback is better for accumulation. One thing is certain: the current stage of the rebound is not over yet. Pay close attention to the support level below in the 2020-2000 range, and the range above is 2060-2090. Stabilizing will lead to a continued rise.

Blockchain News | March 11, Tuesday
1. The European Union announces the world's first unified cryptocurrency trading law coming into effect, Bitcoin ETF trading volume surges by 40%
2. Wu Jiezhang: Suggests Hong Kong establish a digital asset foreign exchange fund and a unified blockchain trading and settlement platform
3. Standard Chartered Bank: The U.S. can establish Bitcoin reserves by selling gold and utilizing treasury funds
4. Manus founder reveals that the product is developed based on Alibaba's Qianwen large model
5. Microsoft's Mesh platform integrates AI assistant Copilot, creating an enterprise-level metaverse operating system #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC

Altcoin 3.21 Highlights:
1. Canary Capital submitted the first Pengu ETF application, still consolidating at the bottom, overall outlook is not optimistic, only suitable for speculation;

2. Aave founder: New proposal intends to launch a new Aave staking module to achieve AAVE repurchase and fee conversion, market is still oscillating within a wedge, consider bottom fishing near the lower edge around 145;

3. LUNC initiated a spending proposal to reward developers, still consolidating, continue to monitor;

4. Most altcoins are currently facing a bottleneck period, requiring further stimulus, otherwise they may face a collective decline;

5. The date for Ethereum's upgrade is gradually approaching, pay attention to the staking sector: LDO, SSV, ENA, PENDLE, PUFFER, etc. #币安投票上币

ORDI: From Glory to Fall, a Bittersweet Crypto Legend

In the innovative land of Shenzhen, the ORDI team once wrote a remarkable crypto legend starting from the inscription chain. With an initial cost of only 10 Mei Yuan and the issuance of 1,000 ORDI, it eventually soared to nearly 100 Mei Yuan on exchanges, at one point approaching a market value of 100,000 Mei Yuan, an astonishing increase of tens of thousands of times. However, behind the brilliance lies the heartache and tears of countless investors.

Whether domestic friends or foreign peers, the fall of ORDI has caused immense losses for many. Domestic early investors may have only contributed liquidity, with profits circulating in their own pockets, but the losses of foreign players have become a “contribution” to our country's GDP. If a team could truly inject tens of billions, hundreds of billions, or even trillions into the domestic economy, they would undoubtedly be revered, and everyone would respectfully refer to them as “Big Brother.”

However, the reality is harsh. ORDI's market value has plummeted from hundreds of billions to mere hundreds of millions, leaving one to exclaim: fuc~ K! Amidst the heartache, we can only hope for the future, wishing you always earn USDT and USDC, and no longer let wealth flow into the pockets of others or other countries.

The story of ORDI is both a microcosm of the crypto world and a reflection of the emotional journey of early investors. May the future path of crypto have fewer heartaches and more brilliance. #美SEC将放弃对Ripple的上诉

The short strategy for Bitcoin given last night at 84000 lost, incurring a loss of 800 points.

After the short position was suggested last night, the price of Bitcoin continued to fluctuate upwards. After midnight, the price of Bitcoin had already broken through 84800. As I have consistently mentioned to everyone, Thursdays are generally bullish, so at that level, I advised to cut losses and exit, resulting in an 800-point loss.

This morning, after the market opened, the price peaked at 87500. This spike is not a good sign, as such spikes after the market opens can generally be determined to be the intraday high. This could likely result in what should have been a bullish Thursday instead closing bearish on the daily chart, which means there is a possibility for further declines in the intraday price rather than continued upward movement. #币安上线BMT

March 19th, Wednesday Ethereum (ETH) Market Strategy (Afternoon)

Today is Wednesday, and based on the current market conditions, the price has not effectively broken through the consolidation range. Therefore, this morning, I also publicly suggested a short position around 1930, but at the moment, it is still an unknown. We need to give the market some time; once it moves downward, don't say I didn't remind you here.

From the current technical indicators, the MACD line on the daily chart has shown a cross pattern, while on the 4-hour chart, breaking above the middle track may not hold effectively. As for the 1-hour chart, let's not even mention the potential for a significant rise. Therefore, we will continue with the strategy given by me this morning. Good luck to everyone! #币安上线BMT

I have slightly understood what a bear market is and what a bull market is.

Human nature is to seek benefits and avoid harm. In the face of profit, the instinct to seek benefits will drive the buying momentum of the group to have strong inertia, while in the face of fear, the instinct to avoid harm will also bring strong inertia to selling behavior;

So from a long-term perspective, the volatility logic of assets can never escape this rule, which is to move up and down along a reasonable price;

So for a bull market, when rational investors believe they have reached a reasonable price level, for example, when BTC is around 70,000, they will start to liquidate and leave, but the market's inertia is still there, so there will still be a price of 100,000;

As for a bear market, when rational investors think the price has reached the bottom, due to inertia, the price can continue to go down;

This is the market understood from the perspective of investors, but from the perspective of speculators, it is completely different;

The essence of speculation is to help prices return to reasonable levels and let the market reward us, so when prices become irrational, that is the time for speculators to enter;

When prices are significantly above reasonable levels, short selling helps prices return to rationality;

When prices are significantly below reasonable levels, going long helps prices return to rationality;

So for speculators, the market's irrationality is the source of profit;

But the problem arises, how to determine what the reasonable price level is?

Moving averages? Based on which period?

Data? At what level as the standard?

Macroeconomics? Based on which policies as the turning point?

Since it is about judging the difference between group rationality and irrationality, why not just focus on the group's emotions to make a judgment!

At the top of small-scale market trends or when new coins are listed, a large number of orders is a sign of entering an irrational price level;

At the bottom of large-scale market trends, when there is no discussion or a large number of losses and curses, it is a sign of entering an irrational price level;

During a decline, when people start shouting to buy the dip, it is a sign that the price has entered a reasonable range, and what follows is the irrational price level of a desperate abyss;

During an uptrend, when people start to liquidate and exit the circle, it is a sign that the price has initially entered a rational range, and what follows is also waiting for the final irrational price level of madness;

Analysis of Bitcoin Market on Monday

The market over the weekend was relatively slow, fluctuating within a narrow range for correction. Last night, after a quick rebound in the Bitcoin price around the 85000 area, the bulls did not continue but instead fell back down, with the lowest point in the morning session reaching around 82000 before rebounding for a correction action!

Currently, from the four-hour chart, after a washout action appeared in the early morning, the market is rebounding upwards to test the mid-line and short-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are in a contracted state, and the short-term moving averages are also running around the mid-line. The MACD fast and slow lines have turned downward and show signs of a reversal near the 0 axis, while the KDJ is testing upward. Overall, the market is facing resistance around the previous high, which is also the daily mid-line's pressure. Therefore, in the short term, we should first pay attention to this area. If it breaks through, we need to focus on the resistance below 87000, while also paying close attention to the support situation near 82000 below.

Today, the overall cryptocurrency market is showing a slow and fluctuating recovery trend. The price of Bitcoin gradually rose after hitting a low of 79,903, peaking at 82,249. The trend of Ethereum is similar to that of Bitcoin; although there was a rebound from the bulls, each rebound faced strong counterattacks from the bears, and it has not been able to break through the bears' suppression. If you feel overwhelmed in trading, it might be a good idea to adjust your strategy in a timely manner. Remember, only when you take the first step can we move forward together. It is never too late to change; let us become giants in action.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the middle track, which was originally a key support level but has now turned into an upward resistance. This change clearly reveals the weakness of the market. From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has fallen for five consecutive days. Although there were minor rebounds during this period, the momentum was weak, and the upward momentum was obviously insufficient, failing to pose an effective challenge to the bearish trend. Bitcoin has broken below the middle track, turning support into resistance, and the weakness of the market is evident.