柒神的交易日记

Good morning!
Today's panic index is 29, maintaining a state of panic.
Bitcoin has reached 8.3 again, which is not considered a bearish drop, still in a state of range oscillation. I thought it could rise to 8.8 before a pullback, but it stopped at 86500. In the short term, 8.3 can be considered the first entry point for the day. The market in the second quarter will gradually stabilize, and it's fine to release bullets in batches. Bitcoin's market share is continuously increasing, and it's difficult for altcoins to make significant progress without reaching a new high.

【Deep Ambush Signal】Has the ULTIMATE Bottom Formation Completed? AI + Blockchain Games Dual-Drive, Signs of Major Accumulation Exposed!

Core Logic Breakdown:
Technical indicators show textbook-level bottom characteristics
• Weekly level shows TD9 sequence + MACD bottom divergence structure
• Daily EMA55 and EMA144 form a golden cross
• After continuous shrinking of trading volume, a significant bullish candle appears, indicating obvious major accumulation
Dual Advantage of the Track
• AI Module: Unique Intelligent NPC Generation System
• Blockchain Game Ecosystem: Connected to 3 GameFi products' economic models
• The combined effect of dual hotspots far exceeds that of a single track project
On-chain Data Anomalies
• Number of holding addresses increased by 47% in 30 days
• Exchange stock ratio dropped to a year-low of 12%
• Weekly interaction volume of smart contracts surged by 300% month-over-month
Operational Strategy:
Spot Layout Range: Current price to 10% below the previous breakout low
Target Space: First resistance level looks at doubling space
Risk Control Suggestion: Strict stop-loss if it drops 15% below the previous low
#ULTI

The new tariff policy is one of the largest impacts on the U.S. economy in decades. If the current average tariff rate of 25% remains for a period of time, inflation could peak at around 5%; in the case of a drop to 10%, inflation could peak at 3%. In a scenario of large tariffs, if a significant economic slowdown occurs, individuals tend to lower interest rates earlier and more significantly than previously thought. In a scenario of smaller tariffs, the Federal Reserve may be more patient, with rate cuts possibly occurring in the second half of the year.
Trump's tariff remarks remain unclear, leading to a sustained high implied volatility for Bitcoin, nearly 20 points higher than recent lows. The market is pricing in this uncertainty, and everyone needs to remain cautious in an environment where risks are heating up.

Today's panic index is 18, still extremely fearful.

This morning, Bitcoin hit a low of 74620, and Ethereum reached a low of 1385, both again setting new lows.

Last night, Trump announced an additional 104% tariff, effective April 9.

In fact, they are just waiting for the East to negotiate, but the East is being too tough, just holding firm. Now Trump is in a difficult position, with no way out. If the U.S. stock market collapses, the entire financial market will also crumble, leading to a major reshuffle. Whether 7.5 for Bitcoin is the bottom is now very unclear. For the short term, let's wait until the situation becomes clear before deciding to enter the market. For the long term, the position with high cost-effectiveness is completely viable for entering a portion of the position.
#美国加征关税 #交易心理学 #币安投票下币

Bitcoin falls and then rises, it's the same logic, $300,000 by the end of the year.

Right now is the time to look for shorting opportunities; history is remarkably similar. According to the logic of May 2021, it’s not difficult for Bitcoin to start with a 5. We see that 6 is still very reasonable. Specifically, how to earn more Bitcoin, just follow Qishen. Let’s talk about the news aspect: interest rate cuts essentially won't be significant; the logic is very clear, it won't be lower than U.S. Treasury yields. The purpose of the U.S. adding tariffs is to bring manufacturing back, whether it’s 34% or 134%, it’s already zero profit – this is a showdown. Our direct response to the tariffs is a countermeasure we had prepared long ago; our goal is to need the Renminbi to be internationalized. Both sides can promote their own objectives, but it’s impossible for the U.S. to completely bring manufacturing back, or for the Renminbi to replace the U.S. dollar; we can only say there will be partial repatriation and some regions using the Renminbi. In the end, you and I are looking at each other from across the shore, and the ones being harvested are other countries. In the big trend, we just go with the flow. Follow Qishen to earn the Bitcoin that should be earned, and by the time Bitcoin reaches $300,000 by the end of the year, having more Bitcoin in hand will be your confidence.

Bitcoin (BTC) falls below 75,000 USD. Do you still believe there will be a bull market in the cryptocurrency space in 2025?

Bitcoin has broken through the daily level of the fluctuation range and has once fallen below many people's psychological expectation line of 75,000 USD, causing the market to plunge rapidly. The market's panic sentiment is continuously increasing. Are you choosing to lie flat or to cut losses and exit?

Today, I have been replying to various messages, addressing what many people are most concerned about:

That is, is there still a bull market in the cryptocurrency space coming up?

Before answering this question, we first need to clarify what your criteria for judging a bull market are.

Is it just the price? Or is it time? Or perhaps space?

Does the time match? Does the current price match? Does the technical analysis of the market match? And so on.

If we have not clarified these questions ourselves and only judge the end of the bull market based on our temporary losses or simply by the current price of Bitcoin, is that not somewhat one-sided or lacking in objectivity and rigor?

Just like my current reason for judging that the bull market is still ongoing:

Yin gives birth to Yang, and Yang gives birth to Yin. Everything has its inherent rules of development. When we realize we are influenced by appearances or emotions, it might be better to calm down and ask ourselves what the answer would be after deep reflection.

Is there a solid basis to support a conclusion that is likely correct?

If not, then even if we make a choice, it is more likely to lead us in the wrong direction and to a wrong answer.
#美国加征关税 #鲍威尔发言 #加密市场回调 #风险回报比

Is this really a bull market?

The panic index today is 23, still in extreme panic.
The waterfall that has been on my mind has finally come; Bitcoin hit a low of 77153, and Ethereum hit a low of 1537, both hitting our predetermined entry points. Although it may not seem like the best position currently, the cost-effectiveness of Bitcoin at 77000 and Ethereum at 1500 is still very high. The trade tensions are the main reason for the sharp decline, and US stocks have been falling for several days; today is also expected to not be good. Be cautious of a black Monday. For short-term, we can consider the situation tonight, and for long-term, we can start buying in batches.
Here's a password for everyone: 5 to get UNI

Daily opening of the potion, continuously profiting. For friends who are confused about making potions and want to recover losses, comment 111 up 🚗
#加密市场回调 #美国加征关税 #鲍威尔发言 #分散资产

Is the implementation of U.S. tariffs and the exhaustion of negative factors a positive sign?

With Trump's tariff policy finally coming into effect, has the impact on the financial market already been digested?
As a two-term U.S. president, Trump's introduction of these policies seems to be nonsense for the market, aimed at personal gain, disregarding the views of the global market.
In fact, if we look at it from another angle, they are not foolish, and they are definitely among the cleverest. What we can think of, others can also think of.
Since it can be thought of, and they ultimately chose such a policy, then in the long run, the benefits will definitely outweigh the drawbacks.
Apart from military influence, the remaining power of the U.S. in the world is capital, and all tools are to pave the way for capital, whose ultimate goal and essence is to pursue profit.
With strength and the execution ability of 'those who have friends in death will not suffer the poor,' you can call them rogues, but you cannot underestimate that the rogue is cultured and wise.
In terms of trends, regardless of the subsequent impact, even if the inflation rate rises, quality safe-haven assets will also rise, which is the direction of capital inflow.
That is to say, when money in the market becomes worthless, then assets will definitely rise with the tide, and whether individuals can benefit from this ultimately depends on whether the chips in hand are quality assets or bubbles that cannot withstand risk.
As time goes by, when the tide recedes, it will be too late to realize that one is swimming naked!

Daily opening of Dan, continuously profitable. Friends who are currently confused about making Dan and want to eat meat to recover their costs, comment '111' to get in the car 🚗
#美国加征关税 #币安投票上币 #Alpha2.0爆款冲击 #Circle上市

How simple can a trading system be?

Just use support and resistance.
Taking going long as an example.
1 Open a position at the support level.
2 Set a stop loss below the support level.
3 Hold the position as long as the stop loss is not triggered. If there is a profit and the price enters between the resistance and support, exit the position and set the stop loss at the breakeven price.
4 Take profit at the resistance level.

That's it.
It's that simple.
#币安投票上币

The panic index today is 25, shifting to 'extreme panic'.
The market continues to align with our judgment from yesterday, showing a pattern of initial rise followed by a drop, with a minimum reaching 82000, which was the first entry point we mentioned yesterday. The negative sentiment has mostly been released, and there hasn't been further decline. What follows is the negotiation between various countries and the United States, as the worst-case scenario has already emerged; any positive developments in these negotiations will boost market confidence.
Friends who have entered the market can continue to hold.
For those who are still on the sidelines, keep an eye on the 82000 entry point.
#币安投票上币 #Alpha2.0爆款冲击 #Circle上市 #美国加征关税

Turning 5000U into 100,000U! This is how I used the 'Turtle Strategy' to achieve it (real experience sharing)

Many people think that making money in short-term trading is difficult; either they get liquidated or can't hold onto their profits. But last month, I witnessed a friend turn a 5000U capital into 100,000U in three weeks! The key point is — his method can be learned by ordinary people.

Today, I will break down his core strategy for you, without complex theories, all practical insights!
1. Never go 'all in' (this is the start of losing money)
My friend only invested 5000U in the first trade (accounting for 20% of total capital), testing the waters with 3x leverage.
Here’s the key: add to your position only after making a profit!
For example, after making 1500U, he only added 500U to his position and reduced the leverage to 2x. It’s like rolling a snowball; the bigger it gets, the safer the principal remains.
2. Learn the 'Turtle Strategy' (patience is more important than skills)
After the Bitcoin crash in March, the market was sideways for two weeks, and many people lost money through frequent trading, but he remained still.
He only entered the market when the price broke through key resistance levels (for example, 95,000).
Remember: Most profits come from a few correct trades, and chaotic operations are not as good as waiting for opportunities.
3. The liquidation price is your 'lifeline'
Last month, someone used 5x leverage to buy Ethereum, and as a result, the price plummeted and went straight to zero.
My friend always calculates: the liquidation price must be far from the current price!
For example, if Bitcoin is currently 85,000U, he sets his liquidation price below 82,000U (leaving at least 10% safety margin).
4. Withdraw profits first (this is yours!)
His principle is simple:
When the principal doubles (5000U → 10,000U), withdraw 5000U immediately, and continue to play with the remaining profit.
When the account reaches 100,000U, he withdraws 80,000U directly, leaving only 20,000U for operations.
Remember: Only profits should remain in the market, not your living expenses!
Summary: A profit-making framework that ordinary people can replicate
Position control: Initial position no more than 20%, add to position only when profitable.
Patient waiting: Make only 1-2 high-certainty trades a month.
Set liquidation price: Ensure you won't get liquidated due to price spikes.
Withdraw in time: Real profits are only made when you secure them!
Before the next trade, ask yourself these 4 questions, and perhaps you can also create miracles!

Daily trading, continuously profiting. Those currently confused about trading and wanting to recover losses, comment and leave 111 🚗
#Alpha2.0爆款冲击 #Circle上市 #美国加征关税

Good morning!
Today's panic index is 44, still in a state of panic.
No significant favorable news, but the market has slightly rebounded, with Bitcoin pushing up to 85000, and Ethereum currently dropping from 1900 to 1880. Yesterday, I reminded everyone that those who entered at 8.2 and 1800 can hold on a bit longer. Today, we need to see how things unfold; the evening news is expected to bring considerable volatility.
Currently, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX indicate that the crypto market is still in a bearish trend. If there’s a significant drop in the evening, it might be a good opportunity to buy in. 82000-80000-77000-75000.
#冲币新时代 #美国加征关税 #BNBChain爆发

Why did Binance's rule change lead to a crash in Meme coins?

Today, some popular Meme coins like ACT suddenly plummeted, and many thought it was due to the market maker Wintermute going bankrupt. However, the real 'culprit' was Binance's adjustment of rules.
Although Binance issued an announcement in advance, the market reaction was more intense than expected. Why can a rule change cause Meme coins to crash? Let's break it down step by step.
1. What rules did Binance change?
This time, Binance adjusted the contract position limits and leverage ratios, primarily aiming to control risks and prevent excessive market manipulation.
Position limit lowered: For example, previously an account could open contracts worth up to $10 million, but now it can only open $5 million, and any excess must be closed.
Leverage ratio lowered: Previously, a leverage of 100 times was allowed, but it may now be reduced to 50 times, resulting in smaller positions that can be opened with the same capital.
This impacts market makers the most, as they typically rely on high leverage and large positions to maintain market liquidity.
2. Market makers forced to liquidate, contract prices drop
Market makers usually hold both spot and contracts simultaneously to hedge risks. But with the new rules:
Contracts exceeding the position limit must be liquidated
High leverage positions must be reduced
If market makers had opened many long positions before, they can now only sell part of them. A large number of sell orders hit the market, and contract prices naturally fell.
3. Disconnection between spot and contract prices, widening price difference
Under normal circumstances, spot and contract prices do not differ significantly, as arbitrageurs ensure they remain close. But this time it was different:
Contract prices plummeted (because market makers were selling)
Spot prices have not reacted yet and haven't dropped as much
As a result, spot prices became much more expensive than contracts, and the price difference suddenly widened.
4. Arbitrage bots, spot prices also fall
There are a large number of arbitrage bots in the market that specifically capture these price difference opportunities:
Buying contracts at low prices (because contracts have dropped significantly)
Selling spot at high prices (because spot hasn’t dropped yet)
The result is: bots frantically sell in the spot market, causing spot prices to drop as well.
5. Vicious cycle: Retail panic accelerates the decline
At this point, the market is already in chaos:
Market makers are selling contracts
Bots are selling spots
Retail investors see the prices plummeting and also start panic selling
Ultimately, Meme coins crash completely, with prices halved or even lower.

ACT Plummets!!!

Today Binance announced that it will adjust the leverage and margin tiers for several U-based perpetual contracts at 18:30.

This includes 1000SATSUSDT, ACTUSDT, PNUTUSDT, NEOUSDT, NEOUSDC, TURBOUSDT, and MEWUSDT.

Subsequently, ACT and PNUT plummeted, with ACT's drop reaching as high as 130%.

It directly fell to the knees, and there are rumors that the major investors have run away, the truth of which is unknown.

As for how to operate with ACT in the future, interested friends can comment and leave a message.

Brothers who have incurred losses in these coins, please report your numbers and join the chat room for rights protection 暴富之路.

The big one is coming!!! Attention

To celebrate the 4th anniversary of the community

Brother Jie brings everyone a spot trading password

Expected to have a 20%-50% increase

Free, free, free

Important things said three times

However, there are two conditions:
1: Spot traders' capital must be greater than 2000u
2: Must have Ouyiy

Fans who meet these two conditions can leave a message with 111

This is a once-a-year opportunity, the next one will have to wait until next year. Hurry up!!
#美国加征关税 #AmericanBitcoin发布会 #BNBChain爆发

Good morning!
Today's panic index is 34, and market panic sentiment continues.
The market has seen a slight rebound; Bitcoin surged to 84,000 last night and then fell back, which can be disregarded. Like yesterday, it remains at the critical positions of Bitcoin 82,000 and Ether 1,800. Those who entered the market yesterday can continue to hold; those who haven't can consider these two positions as short-term entry points for today.
When the uncertainty in the market subsides, cryptocurrencies will welcome the next wave of rebound, but subsequent actions may be disturbed by other retaliatory flooding behaviors, and the scenario may involve rising first and then falling.
#BNBChain爆发 #AmericanBitcoin发布会 #FTX赔付

News brought back by the time travelers
#ETH

Good morning!
Today's panic index has risen to 34, still in a 'panic state'.
Last week, when it rebounded by 8.8, I decisively reminded everyone to pull out in the short term, and the market smoothly fell over the weekend. Support levels of 8.5 and 8.3 have been broken one by one, and the next support level is at 80,000. The 80,000 mark can serve as the next short-term entry point; currently, Bitcoin is around 82,000 and Ethereum is at 1,800. If the capital flow is sufficient, it is actually possible to enter with a partial position now. The current risk has already seen an emotional release, coupled with the catalysts from GME and MARA, as well as the evolution of the extreme tariff scenario on April 2nd, the current position offers a good risk-reward ratio.
#MEME币狂欢 #美国加征关税 #金狗势不可挡