土豆谈币

It is that time of year again when European and American traders are at the peak of their vacation in August.

In the past 7 years, both BTC and ETH have closed down in August 5 times.

The two times in 2020 and 2021 that closed up were driven by macroeconomic stimulus and on-chain DeFi narratives; let's hope this year is different.

August is one of the months with the poorest investment returns for Bitcoin throughout the year. In the past 12 years, only 4 years have had positive investment returns. Therefore, the market this month should primarily focus on fluctuations and adjustments, oscillating back and forth between 110,000 and 120,000.

#稳定币热潮

Every time Ethereum rises, the Ethereum Foundation starts selling. Every time they sell, ETH drops, without exception. The Ethereum Foundation is the biggest enemy of Ethereum.

The price hasn't changed upon waking up, most people have lost their positions, the midnight gold pit, the Americans are really bad! It broke through the small support level during consolidation, and closed with huge volume. If BTC can't break 117, there's a high probability it will kill another wave of shorts. Before the rise, they used news to wash the market, yesterday's long positions were mostly killed, and if they kill the structure again, it will be bad. In a bull market, as long as the bulls learn to catch the needle, it will be fine.

Current key turning points:
• Tomorrow's monthly close
• Tomorrow night at 20:30 non-farm payroll data
• Next Monday's weekly close

#以太坊十周年

There is a large amount of liquidity selling pressure between 119000 and 120000, which needs to be gradually digested before a breakthrough is possible. Currently, we are using time to exchange for space during this consolidation period.

If the prolonged consolidation weakens later, it may reach around 112000, where there will be strong support for the market. Once it reaches this area, it will be a great entry opportunity, perhaps similar to the previous drop near 100000 when BTC fell to around 98000 and then quickly recovered.

In a consolidating market, we can only wait for entry opportunities. If the target is reached, we act; if not, we will have to wait for the market to restart to build positions on the right side.

#比特币

Why do people lose a lot of money due to "insider information"?
1. Normally, based on rational judgment, you wouldn't buy this coin, but you bought it because you heard the news.
2. The coin's price goes up, but you won't sell because you feel it's not worth it to leave before the news materializes.
3. The coin's price goes down, and you still won't sell because you believe the news hasn't materialized yet and you are unwilling to give up.
4. Finally, you wait until the news materializes, and even if the price rises, it may have only returned to the break-even point after dropping for so long, which is already the luckiest scenario. In most cases, it either doesn't rise or drops further, with prices halving again and again.
Many people believe that KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) can gain a lot of insider knowledge because they are close to the project parties. On the contrary, because they are close to the project parties, they end up losing even more, to the point of their hearts bleeding.

The counterfeit season is likely to occur in August, which is the explosion point for altcoins. Any pullback should be entered in batches. Don't wait until it rises to ask whether you can enter this or that.

Do not engage in mainstream altcoins other than BTC, ETH, and BNB this week, they are too weak, avoid participation. Yesterday they were very strong above 119, BTC's pullback point directly crashed. The BTC range is from 117 - the last low - 114.6.

What should a bull market look like?

According to the rhythms of past bull markets, the real frenzy phase is when everyone feels like they are making money, market sentiment is high, and even the air is filled with the scent of FOMO.

We are not yet at the stage where everyone is making money, and outsiders want to rush in thinking that even the highest prices are not too high; I have said multiple times that the market has not yet run its course.

Although many people did not hold on to their positions, the quality assets like ETH, SOL, and the ones you have should still provide good returns.

As for when the peak will arrive?

History tells us: the true top is when everyone thinks, "If I don't go all in now, it will be too late."

This week,重点关注 Wednesday's ADP data,
Thursday morning's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, PCE data
Friday's non-farm payroll data

#BNB创新高

Midnight $BNB causing trouble once again with a wild ATH

Woke up in the morning to find that the coin-based contract grid had broken down over the week and I had to refill it. Luckily, the naked long positions and spot holdings are still intact, definitely a nice income after sleep.

Although there is currently no information source indicating where this sudden buying pressure is coming from, based on the timing and magnitude of purchases (300,000 $BNB purchased in the past 12 hours), I suspect it’s very likely that some North American BNB micro-strategy has taken action, but there has been no official announcement yet.

Otherwise, it’s hard to explain such concentrated, continuous, and large-scale buying pressure coming from nowhere.

#BNB创新高

BNB Financial Company's influence is also growing larger.

Windtree Therapeutics ($WINT) has signed a common stock purchase agreement worth up to $500 million to establish an equity line of credit (ELOC) and has reached an additional $20 million stock purchase agreement with Build and Build Corp. 99% of the proceeds from both financings will be used to acquire BNB.

The topic of "扒庄" (shorting) has been quite popular these days, so let me share my thoughts.

In fact, "扒庄" and the analysis logic on the Bitcoin chain are quite similar: Bitcoin looks at data such as long-term and short-term holders, exchange stock, etc., while "扒庄" looks at the address information of whale investors to distinguish which are the main players and which are large retail investors.

For example, buying 1 million USELESS at a 300 million dollar order book does not count as a main player. Main players emphasize teamwork and matrix structure, characterized by a batch of addresses gradually building positions in the early price stages, not buying all at once, but increasing positions step by step within a certain price and time range. When the price rises, most of the top 100 addresses are likely to be part of the main player matrix, and those who can consolidate and wash out have basically all main players.

However, one should not blindly believe in the sayings around "扒庄," such as "the front row chips are concentrated and will soar," most of which are unreliable. Main players will not announce their pump in advance, and once the hot trend shifts or Bitcoin plummets, they will quickly take profits and retreat; following them may only result in catching a large bearish candle.

Take Ani's rebound as an example; one can judge without looking at address data: after all the popular coins have been rapidly washed out, there will at least be a doubling trend; the strength of the rebound is related to the Bitcoin trend and narrative, and this has been the case with previous popular coins. The main player will not sell off all their goods at the first peak; they will at least touch the top 1-3 times and slowly offload, which makes logical sense.

Therefore, combining "扒庄" with narrative is correct, but one should not hard short, be careful not to provoke the main players.

#山寨季來了？

Has the altcoin been beaten back to its original form?

In fact, looking at the market value exchange rate, it's not bad; it has only retraced to the exchange rate peak of May!

Looking back at the last altcoin season, there was a full 400 days of low-level fluctuations, so there's no need to rush...

The altcoin exchange rate has bottomed out, but that doesn't mean it will immediately pump; even in the last altcoin season, there was a significant drop in the exchange rate before it started...

Be a little patient~ In the short term, trading in USDT is definitely not easy...

If it were easy, retail investors would have already jumped in. Once the conditions are ripe and liquidity is released, how will it start?