土豆谈币

The question of whether Bitcoin is a risk asset or a safe-haven asset has been discussed many times, and I will mention it one more time.

In the eyes of different people, the attributes of $BTC vary. For high-net-worth investors, BTC may be a safe-haven asset, but what they are avoiding is not the risk of asset depreciation, but the risk of asset acceptance.

During geopolitical conflicts, the first thing countries tend to block is foreign exchange. If one wants to leave the country, many assets cannot be fully taken, such as local gold, stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash. However, BTC is different; during Biden's presidency, many people carried cryptocurrencies when they left.

Of course, some may ask why it can't be USDT or USDC. For ordinary people, stablecoins are the best; however, stablecoins lack the potential for appreciation. For high-net-worth investors, the focus is not on short-term fluctuations but on long-term value. Therefore, it is evident that in recent years, BTC has been shifting towards long-term and high-net-worth investors.

But for small-scale investors, due to BTC's strong volatility, it is inevitably a risk asset. After all, for most investors, BTC is merely a tool for wealth, not wealth itself.

BTC has fallen below two key support levels, combined with the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, the trigger factors for the market decline are complete. Within the group, short positions were opened almost at the highest point of $109,775, and as of now, the price has dropped by about $6,000, resulting in substantial profits.

From the daily chart, BTC shows a trend of forming an M-top, with $100,800 being the most critical support level below. If this level is broken, the M-top pattern will be confirmed, and panic selling may lead to further price declines to around $94,000. Currently, the price remains high, and this round of decline is mainly driven by risk aversion sentiment triggered by the war. As long as the support level of $100,800 holds, there is hope for capital to flow back after the market stabilizes.

Therefore, this drop provides investors with an opportunity to acquire low-priced chips, and one can patiently wait for the buying or shorting opportunity. I have partially taken profits on my position.

If:

Replacing the concepts of bull market or bear market with simple market or difficult market; would it be a bit clearer?

AND:

If you know when it is a simple market and when it is a difficult market, then you will know when to go heavy and when to go light;

If you know when to go heavy and when to go light, then you will know when to focus on large market caps and when to chase altcoins;

If you know when to focus on large market caps and when to chase altcoins, then you will know when emotions are at a peak and when they are at a trough;

If you know when emotions are at a peak and when they are at a trough, then you will know when to buy the dip and when to sell at the top.

The overall trend of Bitcoin is upward, but on a smaller scale, it has not yet stopped falling. Although the short-term price has retreated and touched the support near 108,000 without breaking it, the rebound strength is relatively weak. Therefore, I think there will be a trap to lure shorts, and on a smaller scale, it will continue to pull back downward. After touching near 108,000 again, it will accelerate to dip down to around 107,500, then quickly recover and start a rebound. So, the short-term buying position can be chosen near 107,500.

The futures shorts added positions yesterday, with liquidity for shorts above the high hitting a three-month clearing zone peak, similar to the market structure of 2024. The funding rate remains positive, indicating that the high-positioned shorts are mostly 100x leveraged hedging positions, explaining the three instances of unliquidated positions.

The $BTC spot premium has rebounded, and the price may continue to fluctuate, with opportunities for shorting during high tests. Liquidity accumulation entices buying, but 'what should be cleared will not be cleared, and there will surely be anomalies', suggesting there may be spot supply distributed through the short clearing zone, with futures buying supporting spot selling, maintaining the fluctuation.

The ETF for SOL has made new progress. Last night, the SEC requested that the issuers of the proposed spot SOL ETF submit a revised S-1 form within the next week. Industry insiders believe that this ETF will be approved within 3 to 5 weeks. Additionally, there are reports that the SEC also seems willing to accept proposals that include staking mechanisms.

This is not only beneficial for SOL but also for ETH, which is why both ETH and SOL showed strong performance last night. Furthermore, Bloomberg believes that the market is about to enter the altcoin ETF summer phase and has provided the approval rates for other altcoin ETFs in 2025.

$LTC 90%, $SOL 90%, $XRP 85%, $DOGE 80%, $HBAR 80%, $ADA 75%, $DOT 75%, $AVAX 75%, $SUI 60%, $TRX uncertain. There’s not much more to say about these; they are all projects worth buying.

Solana vs Base
From the weekly perspective of Solana, there are very few assets suitable for long-term holding; on Base, there are more projects worth holding for the long term. However, it is strange that the market heat and buzz around Solana far exceed that of Base. Characteristics of the BSC chain
BSC is known as the "simple mode" for the following reasons: Chinese chain: The news is close to the major players, with a clear information advantage. Slow chain speed: The pace is slow, allowing for relaxed operations. Clear valuation: CZ's retweets are worth hundreds of thousands, changing avatars is worth millions, and Alpha is in the tens of millions, making the valuation justifiable. Bottom-up: There is little interference from strong major players, leading to stable valuations.
Strategies for navigating BSC:
If not taken by a "conspiracy," ignoring, hitching a ride, or slight sabotage is acceptable. Not in the conspiracy sequence: negative EV (expected value). In the conspiracy sequence: positive EV.
BSC's meme coins, when viewed on a 4-hour chart, are not suitable for long-term holding. Ethereum mainnet
Like a "slow version of BSC," it has a high rate of going to zero, rapid downward momentum, few themes, and is difficult to hold long-term. Retrospective perspective
Setting aside conspiracy theories, Base is the easiest chain to make money.

As night falls, the market surges fiercely, while during the day it adjusts.
Ethereum has finally broken through the range of fluctuations, and market enthusiasm is moderate. I came across a few big names who have exited the circle; in reality, if one completely leaves this space, it is truly difficult to withdraw, as one becomes accustomed to the excitement of various trades here and stays updated with the latest information.
I particularly agree with the phrase 'extreme things will turn against themselves' because any extreme action will definitely backfire. In this space, what you once believed in, what faith you had, might be completely different once you know the truth.
Maintain a calm mindset. Wishing everyone prosperity.

Yesterday, after BTC broke through the $110,000 mark, although it subsequently fell below this key level again, market sentiment has been activated, which may drive the rebound of other mainstream cryptocurrencies.

ETH has returned to $2,800, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is attempting to break through the daily Vegas resistance level. ETH ETF has seen a net inflow for 15 consecutive working days, and the optimistic funding environment has stimulated the rise in ETH prices.

Regarding altcoins, market sentiment is high, and most sectors have welcomed a rebound; the Fear and Greed Index today reports at 65, which is an increase compared to yesterday, placing it in the greed range.

The overall long-short ratio is 0.51, with bearish sentiment dominating.

2021年4🈷️-2021年11月，Btc周线顶背离

68000下跌到15600，跌幅77.5%

2022年6🈷️-2023.4月，周线底背离

15600上涨到119000，涨幅605%

2024 年12🈷️-2025年6月，目前周线顶背离

逢高定投做1倍空单，盈利会非常稳健

当然初期的空非常难做，会反复筑顶，同时市值占比下降资金有利于回调以太等山寨，变相的掩护大饼主力资金撤退

ETH rose as expected to liquidate shorts, peaking at 2548 before retreating. Current market liquidity is scarce, and fluctuations can be determined through the liquidation chart.

After one side is liquidated, the market often reverses. The early morning was an example: after liquidating shorts near 2535, the price surged to 2550, peaking at 2548, and then pulled back to the current 2493. This kind of market is suitable for short-term swing trading.

Since the 6th, the market's liquidation data has decreased, and liquidity is almost exhausted. $ETH is currently in a consolidation range, but I remain bearish, expecting it to drop to at least 2400. The short-term support level around 2478 will oscillate repeatedly, ultimately possibly dropping to 2400 in one go.

Two thoughts for today:

1. What are the operating rules of Bitcoin (BTC)?

I believe that the price movements of Bitcoin are driven by major players in the context of grand narratives, through a cycle of 'accumulating at low prices, selling at high prices, and then accumulating again at low prices.' During the ups and downs, the major players continuously harvest the wealth of market participants.

Why do the major players always have funds to drive the market? Because they not only make money by going long through contracts at low prices but can also continue to profit by going short at high prices. They control the trends and almost always profit without loss.

Observations from the past six months reveal: after the major players sell, prices peak and then slowly decline for months; after accumulation is complete, the next round of upward movement starts, followed by a significant correction after selling. Each time they drive the market, the major players can earn several times their investment. Despite BTC's market value growing larger, its unique narrative and currency applications continue to attract a steady influx of capital.

Hypothesis: If there were no contracts and other financial derivatives, it might be difficult for BTC's market value to continue rising. Contracts amplify the profits of major players, but also amplify the losses of retail investors. The essence of the market is a game between major players and retail investors, with funds flowing from cash-strapped retail investors to well-capitalized major players.

2. What is the essence of contracts?

The essence of contracts is volatility. If you bet on the right direction and control the position you can bear, you can continue to make a profit. But the premise is that the direction must be correct, which stumps 90% of players.

The ancient E soldier's perspective is worth learning from.

I think for spot trading, it still depends on your own cost basis;

However, since E has already shown such an impressive performance by having a strong bullish candle that wiped out the bears this round;

It's basically quite difficult for it to return to the previous low, after all, the main funds won't allow retail investors to pick up cheap chips from their accumulation, unless they have already completed a round of selling;

As for short-term trading, the operation of this coin is extremely bloody, even I have returned defeated multiple times, so don't do short-term trading;

Also, many people don't understand why the E at 2200 is more attractive than the E at 1800, because E at 1800 might still go down to 1300, while E at 2200 could go to 3000+;

#以太坊现货ETF

There are many people in the cryptocurrency world who have made 10 million, very many!

However, earning 10 million oneself and deriving a methodology for ordinary people to earn 10 million are two completely different things; the latter is clearly much more difficult. The thought process involved breaks down the 10 million into three 10x opportunities, finding corresponding opportunities in the first, second, and third 10x levels, and replicating the profitable operations 100 times within each 10x. I believe these ideas are very practical, scientific, and effective.

So, how can one earn 10 million in the cryptocurrency world? Let's start with a basic theorem: In a person's life, one only needs to continuously go all-in on three tenfold cryptocurrencies. First, prepare $10,000, which is an amount you can afford to lose, then aim for $10,000 - $100,000, $100,000 - $1,000,000, and $1,000,000 can be considered a small target. If you don't even have $10,000 to start with, or if that $10,000 is not something you can afford to lose, then work and study hard instead. Investing may not be suitable for you at this time because your ability to bear risk is too low. If an all-in fails, there is a high probability of failure, which may severely impact your real life, leading to a loss that is not worth it!

The potential returns you can achieve depend on the scale of your vision. Do you cryptocurrency friends understand?

#币安钱包TGE