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Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?

The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.

If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.

With the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data last night, the market has once again welcomed expectations of interest rate cuts. However, after experiencing a brief surge, the overall market has fallen back, currently stabilizing above 110,000 USD.
BTC buying pressure is weak, ETH reserve strategy is yet to be verified
On September 4th, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of 227 million USD in a single day, shifting back to net outflow after achieving over 300 million USD net inflow on September 2nd and 3rd. This indicates that the market has turned bearish on BTC price trends. Currently, the total net inflow for the BTC spot ETF is 54.55 billion USD; the recent performance of the U.S. ETH spot ETF data has been even more dismal, with continuous net outflows from August 29th to September 4th. On September 4th alone, the net outflow reached 167 million USD, and the total net inflow stands at 13.04 billion USD.

The weak private sector employment data released by ADP has unsettled traditional markets, showing that only 54,000 jobs were added in August, far below the market forecast of 75,000.
On Friday, the more important U.S. employment report will be released, which will reveal whether the labor market is strong or losing momentum. Wednesday's labor data showed that the number of unemployed individuals (7.24 million) currently exceeds the number of employed individuals (7.18 million). Although economists expect an increase of 80,000 jobs in August, some are concerned that the actual number may be far below expectations.

The current trading price of Bitcoin is close to 112,000 USD, consolidating within the range of 104,000 - 116,000 USD. The Unspent Transaction Output Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that investors have accumulated within the range of 108,000 - 116,000 USD. This phenomenon reflects active buying behavior on dips in the market, but does not rule out the possibility of further declines in the short to medium term.
The price has fallen below the 0.95 percentile cost benchmark, marking the end of a three and a half month frenzy phase, returning to the range of 104,000 - 114,000 USD. Historically, this range often serves as a consolidation channel before the next clear trend formation.

Bitcoin has fallen 12% from its historical high, and online discussions suggest the bull market may have ended. Let's look at the following points.

Historical context reveals the norm:
The current 12% pullback in Bitcoin is trivial compared to the 20% to 40% drops frequently seen in previous bull market cycles, suggesting this is merely a regular fluctuation rather than a trend reversal.
Key support levels worth noting:
Indicators such as the short-term holder realized price ($109,000) and the moving averages (200-day moving average $101,000, yearly moving average $93,000) will determine whether the bull market trend continues.

As Bitcoin prices retreat further from historical highs to $107,000, the market is currently above the cost basis of short-term holders. In the spot market, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into oversold territory, with momentum further weakening and trading volume declining, reflecting a decrease in market confidence. The spot CVD shows that selling pressure has eased, suggesting a temporary stabilization in the market, but overall signals indicate weak demand.
The futures market shows cautious position allocation. Open interest has decreased, financing payments have reduced, and the CVD of perpetual contracts has slightly improved, indicating a decline in leverage and weakening bullish sentiment. Traders seem reluctant to expand risk exposure, highlighting a defensive strategy adopted after recent volatility.

Is everyone feeling like they haven't made money yet, while the market is already starting to shout about turning bearish, with various messages leaving us confused? Bitcoin's weekly chart is facing a MACD death cross, while Ethereum is struggling to maintain support. Recently, Trend Research, which gained impressive results by bullishly calling ETH from the bottom, had firmly held a bullish outlook on the Ethereum ecosystem, but this morning chose to quietly liquidate PENDLE and ENS at a loss.
At such moments, should we hold on or retreat?
The game between Ethereum and Bitcoin stirred by the whales
In the past two weeks, the protagonist of the crypto market has been an ancient whale. His massive sell-off of BTC for ETH can be said to be the 'culprit' behind the weakening of Bitcoin's market. This big player has accumulated a total of 34,110 BTC sold off, cashing out about $3.7 billion, and bought 813,298.84 ETH worth about $3.66 billion. Currently, he still holds 49,816 BTC in his remaining two wallets, valued at about $6 billion. The question is: will he continue to sell? How much? Like a sword yet to fall, it hangs over Bitcoin's head. One can only say, the sellers are too strong.

Recently, the market seems to have entered a phase that is difficult to decipher, with blue-chip cryptocurrencies maintaining high-level fluctuations, the overall direction is undecided, and the altcoin market has not ushered in the anticipated comprehensive bull market, while DAT assets or coin stocks are leading in the traditional financial market.
Prior to this, there have been many voices on social media characterizing this bull market as driven by traditional funds. This part of the capital has several different characteristics compared to past market cycles, such as being greatly influenced by macro factors, having a lower risk appetite, being relatively concentrated, having a weaker wealth effect spillover, and a less obvious sector rotation phenomenon.

Bitcoin is trading close to $111,000, testing the key support level of $107,000–$108,900. A rebound to $113,600 may face continued selling pressure, while deeper potential targets look towards $93,000–$95,000. Current losses remain shallow, spot demand is neutral, and perpetual contracts are leaning bearish but performing moderately.
Fill the gap
Market enters the second week of retreat from the historical high of $124,000.
The CBD heatmap provides a visualization of the concentration of supply at different acquisition price levels, highlighting important parts of the tokens' last transfers. Each color band reflects dense areas of cost basis, which typically act as natural support or resistance zones.

Since last week, the inflow of Ethereum ETFs has dramatically reversed, with institutional investors recording a net outflow of -105,000 ETH, ending several weeks of inflows.
This sudden reversal has disrupted the market, indicating that institutional confidence is waning. However, the week started positively, with +16,900 ETH flowing back into spot ETFs, suggesting that demand is recovering.
As of the time of writing, ETH is trading at approximately $4,611, slightly below key resistance levels. The balance between ETF capital inflows and overall market positions may determine the recent price trend of this altcoin.