不做韭菜要做资本
每日宏观分析，大盘走势解读，一起把握区块链时代的红利，公众号不做韭菜要做资本
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How crazy can the next bull market be? How to find 100x coins?
Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
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Exchange BTC balance hits rock bottom, bull market accelerates! Will altcoin ETFs bring about a wave of price corrections?
The balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen to a five-year low, with more and more Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges. Some Bitcoin is moved to cold wallets, while more is transferred to institutional custody such as ETFs and funds, indicating investors' strong optimism about Bitcoin's long-term performance, with holding behavior gradually shifting from short-term to long-term. Institutional buying has also pushed Bitcoin's price back to $96,000.
Even if supply decreases, prices will only fluctuate if demand breaks through the equilibrium point, rather than changing non-linearly. Companies and institutions are using low-cost funds to acquire large amounts of Bitcoin, leading to a real reduction in Bitcoin supply. When unlimited fiat currency chases scarce assets, the price will change drastically and irreversibly. Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is at a turning point after a price correction, preparing to enter a new round of upward momentum.
Even if supply decreases, prices will only fluctuate if demand breaks through the equilibrium point, rather than changing non-linearly. Companies and institutions are using low-cost funds to acquire large amounts of Bitcoin, leading to a real reduction in Bitcoin supply. When unlimited fiat currency chases scarce assets, the price will change drastically and irreversibly. Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is at a turning point after a price correction, preparing to enter a new round of upward momentum.
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The market is boiling, rate cut expectations soar, is the next target $100,000?
Due to concerning U.S. GDP data increasing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin prices are preparing to break out of consolidation.
Due to market expectations that the Fed may cut rates sooner than expected, Bitcoin broke through $95,000 again on May 1, reaching a high of $97,424, and currently stands at $96,500.
A Fed rate cut will drive Bitcoin prices up.
After the U.S. GDP data reflected an economic contraction, the price of Bitcoin fell below $93,000, then rose slightly in the following hours.
Economic contraction may prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner to stimulate economic activity. This would lower yields on traditional assets like bonds, prompting investors to turn to Bitcoin and risk assets.
Due to market expectations that the Fed may cut rates sooner than expected, Bitcoin broke through $95,000 again on May 1, reaching a high of $97,424, and currently stands at $96,500.
A Fed rate cut will drive Bitcoin prices up.
After the U.S. GDP data reflected an economic contraction, the price of Bitcoin fell below $93,000, then rose slightly in the following hours.
Economic contraction may prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner to stimulate economic activity. This would lower yields on traditional assets like bonds, prompting investors to turn to Bitcoin and risk assets.
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It's not worth getting a new account right now
The threshold is already 90 points
Getting 10 points a day
It will take nine days to reach
After nine days, the threshold is expected to be 180
The threshold is already 90 points
Getting 10 points a day
It will take nine days to reach
After nine days, the threshold is expected to be 180
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Interest Rate Cut Expectations Ignite the Market! Economic Data Mixed, Bitcoin May Become a New Safe Haven
US macro data pressures Bitcoin, and the market worries about the prospect of 'stagflation'.
The US macroeconomic report released on Wednesday put pressure on Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. The 'stagflationary' data combined with shrinking GDP and weak private sector employment growth raised widespread market concerns.
According to the ADP employment report, the US private sector added only 62,000 jobs in April, far below the expected 108,000, and significantly lower than March's 147,000.
Meanwhile, the US GDP decreased by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth since 2022, while the market had previously expected a growth of 0.2%. However, from the perspective of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, inflation has shown signs of slowing down. PCE is a highly watched indicator by the Federal Reserve during decision-making. Data shows that the PCE in March rose by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.2%; excluding food and energy, the core PCE rose by 2.6% year-on-year, in line with economists' forecasts, but below the revised February data (3.0%).
The US macroeconomic report released on Wednesday put pressure on Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. The 'stagflationary' data combined with shrinking GDP and weak private sector employment growth raised widespread market concerns.
According to the ADP employment report, the US private sector added only 62,000 jobs in April, far below the expected 108,000, and significantly lower than March's 147,000.
Meanwhile, the US GDP decreased by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth since 2022, while the market had previously expected a growth of 0.2%. However, from the perspective of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, inflation has shown signs of slowing down. PCE is a highly watched indicator by the Federal Reserve during decision-making. Data shows that the PCE in March rose by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.2%; excluding food and energy, the core PCE rose by 2.6% year-on-year, in line with economists' forecasts, but below the revised February data (3.0%).
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B² Valuation Benchmarking and Price Prediction
Reference for Similar Projects:
Merlin Chain ($MERL) had an FDV of $2.2 billion at TGE, current MC $50M;
B² initial FDV $2 billion, MC $52M, but the market environment is worse.
Optimistic Scenario: If the ecosystem explodes or lists on top-tier exchanges, the price may soar to $1-1.5 (FDV $210-310 million).
Neutral Scenario: Long-term sideways in the $0.6-0.8 range (corresponding FDV $120-160 million).
Pessimistic Scenario: If TVL declines or the team sells off, it may drop below $0.4.
Operational Suggestions:
Short-term (within 1 week after TGE): Take partial profits above $1, be wary of liquidity traps.
Mid-term (1-3 months): If it does not break through $1.2, it is recommended to liquidate and wait.
Long-term: Need to observe technological upgrades and real ecosystem growth, otherwise there is no holding value.
Key Risks:
Token Economics Defects: Early selling pressure is concentrated, inflation model is unsustainable.
Domestic Manipulation: Team-affiliated addresses control 68.3%, suspicion of price manipulation for selling off.
Ecosystem Progress Delayed: Current applications mainly replicate DeFi, lacking innovative use cases.
In the short term, it can serve as a speculative target; in the long term, it needs to be viewed with caution. If the project team can fulfill their promises of technical optimization (such as on-chain verification, decentralized bridging) and attract real ecosystem development, it may solidify its Layer2 positioning; otherwise, it may become a tool for “domestic manipulation” speculation.
Reference for Similar Projects:
Merlin Chain ($MERL) had an FDV of $2.2 billion at TGE, current MC $50M;
B² initial FDV $2 billion, MC $52M, but the market environment is worse.
Optimistic Scenario: If the ecosystem explodes or lists on top-tier exchanges, the price may soar to $1-1.5 (FDV $210-310 million).
Neutral Scenario: Long-term sideways in the $0.6-0.8 range (corresponding FDV $120-160 million).
Pessimistic Scenario: If TVL declines or the team sells off, it may drop below $0.4.
Operational Suggestions:
Short-term (within 1 week after TGE): Take partial profits above $1, be wary of liquidity traps.
Mid-term (1-3 months): If it does not break through $1.2, it is recommended to liquidate and wait.
Long-term: Need to observe technological upgrades and real ecosystem growth, otherwise there is no holding value.
Key Risks:
Token Economics Defects: Early selling pressure is concentrated, inflation model is unsustainable.
Domestic Manipulation: Team-affiliated addresses control 68.3%, suspicion of price manipulation for selling off.
Ecosystem Progress Delayed: Current applications mainly replicate DeFi, lacking innovative use cases.
In the short term, it can serve as a speculative target; in the long term, it needs to be viewed with caution. If the project team can fulfill their promises of technical optimization (such as on-chain verification, decentralized bridging) and attract real ecosystem development, it may solidify its Layer2 positioning; otherwise, it may become a tool for “domestic manipulation” speculation.
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Bitcoin's profit positions soar to 85%! Market overheating alarm rings, is a turning point approaching?
Despite the unclear market direction, the overall profit position of Bitcoin continues to rise. On-chain data shows that currently over 85% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in profit, meaning most investors hold coins with positive returns.
Such data is often seen as 'bullish signals', but it is also accompanied by the market entering an 'overheated phase (Euphoria Zone)' — that is, a short-term spike in coin prices, but the risk of subsequent pullbacks also increases.
Profit proportion has surpassed 80%, not far from the 'emotional peak'.
Bitcoin's 'Supply in Profit' has surpassed 85% (currently at 87.2%). While this is a positive signal indicating high market confidence and a strong bullish atmosphere, historical experiences also bring caution. Having a large portion of Bitcoin supply in profit is not necessarily a bad thing; rather, it often represents potential for price increases.
Such data is often seen as 'bullish signals', but it is also accompanied by the market entering an 'overheated phase (Euphoria Zone)' — that is, a short-term spike in coin prices, but the risk of subsequent pullbacks also increases.
Profit proportion has surpassed 80%, not far from the 'emotional peak'.
Bitcoin's 'Supply in Profit' has surpassed 85% (currently at 87.2%). While this is a positive signal indicating high market confidence and a strong bullish atmosphere, historical experiences also bring caution. Having a large portion of Bitcoin supply in profit is not necessarily a bad thing; rather, it often represents potential for price increases.
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The operation of this dog farm by Alpaca is really impressive
APLACA pulled up more than ten times in a day
First dropped three times to scare away all the panic sellers
Pulling up like pulling onions out of dry land
APLACA pulled up more than ten times in a day
First dropped three times to scare away all the panic sellers
Pulling up like pulling onions out of dry land
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Haedal (LST) ranks fourth in TVL, behind Suilend (Lending + AMM + LST), NAVI (Lending + LST), and Cetus (AMM). The TVL of Suilend's liquidity staking portion (SpringSui) is also higher than Haedal, making Haedal the fourth protocol in Sui ecosystem TVL and the second protocol in the LST track TVL.
As the highest TVL lending protocol and liquidity staking LST protocol in the Sui ecosystem, the current FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of the token SEND is only around 72 million USD. If HAEDAL's value is above 0.1 USD, then either HAEDAL is overvalued or SEND is undervalued.
Considering HAEDAL's financing background, the high premium of the launch platform, the current high attention, pre-market performance, as well as Haedal protocol's actual market share and project fundamentals, there is a small probability that HAEDAL will open above 0.1 USD, which is a position to consider selling. In the short term, HAEDAL is likely to drift towards 0.05 USD or even lower.
As the highest TVL lending protocol and liquidity staking LST protocol in the Sui ecosystem, the current FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of the token SEND is only around 72 million USD. If HAEDAL's value is above 0.1 USD, then either HAEDAL is overvalued or SEND is undervalued.
Considering HAEDAL's financing background, the high premium of the launch platform, the current high attention, pre-market performance, as well as Haedal protocol's actual market share and project fundamentals, there is a small probability that HAEDAL will open above 0.1 USD, which is a position to consider selling. In the short term, HAEDAL is likely to drift towards 0.05 USD or even lower.
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108 Ways for Native Dogs to Die
Contract Audit Illusion: 98% of Meme Coin Audit Reports are Worth Approximately the Image of Beef on Instant Noodle Packaging
Liquidity Trap: Initial Trading Depth May Not Be Better Than a Local Market, One Large Order Can Make the Coin Price Perform 'Free Fall'
Technical Harvest: From Pixiu Plates to Flash Loan Attacks, the Market Makers Have 100 Ways to Leave You with Nothing Left
Contract Audit Illusion: 98% of Meme Coin Audit Reports are Worth Approximately the Image of Beef on Instant Noodle Packaging
Liquidity Trap: Initial Trading Depth May Not Be Better Than a Local Market, One Large Order Can Make the Coin Price Perform 'Free Fall'
Technical Harvest: From Pixiu Plates to Flash Loan Attacks, the Market Makers Have 100 Ways to Leave You with Nothing Left
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How long can Bitcoin's upward momentum last? How should we select coins now to outperform BTC?
I believe the market has absolutely bottomed around $74,500. At that time, Trump took an extreme stance on tariffs, but under the pressure of the financial market crash, he had to choose to compromise — after all, he was also facing the pressure of the 2026 midterm elections.
So the market has hit bottom, funds have returned, and Bitcoin has rebounded by about 25%. Do you remember the market low after the FTX crash in 2022? At that time, Yellen chose to reduce the reverse repurchase from $250 million to 0, and Bitcoin subsequently rose nearly 6 times. I believe we will see a similar upward pattern.
So the market has hit bottom, funds have returned, and Bitcoin has rebounded by about 25%. Do you remember the market low after the FTX crash in 2022? At that time, Yellen chose to reduce the reverse repurchase from $250 million to 0, and Bitcoin subsequently rose nearly 6 times. I believe we will see a similar upward pattern.
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ETFs continue to set the tone for market fluctuations, with Bitcoin hitting bottom in the second quarter and reaching new highs in the third quarter.
As we enter the second quarter of 2025, the crypto market is undergoing significant adjustments. Against a backdrop of increasing macro uncertainty, investor sentiment has turned defensive, with funds flowing towards high-market-cap assets like Bitcoin. Although the altcoin market is under pressure, core infrastructure continues to strengthen, and on-chain fundamentals remain robust. Institutional interest remains stable through ETF channels and platform development.
Bitcoin regains dominance in a risk-averse environment.
As investors turn to high-confidence assets, Bitcoin's dominance has risen to 63%, marking the highest level since early 2021.
Bitcoin regains dominance in a risk-averse environment.
As investors turn to high-confidence assets, Bitcoin's dominance has risen to 63%, marking the highest level since early 2021.
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Good morning!
Today's fear index is 60, and the market has turned into a state of greed.
Yesterday, the market tested 93,000 twice and was pulled back up, which is a critical level that once supported Bitcoin's rise to a historic high in January this year. Currently, there are more and more new buyers for Bitcoin, MicroStrategy keeps buying, and more institutions are following suit. With the national team entering the market, this will bring a continuous stream of buying for Bitcoin. One hundred thousand is within reach; short-term traders can sell while pulling back around 95,000 to 100,000, and then wait for a wave of emotional release before re-entering. Additionally, there are many data releases this week, so take profits when necessary. Long-term players can hold steady and not worry about being in the same boat as the institutions; just wait peacefully for the bull market to come.
Today's fear index is 60, and the market has turned into a state of greed.
Yesterday, the market tested 93,000 twice and was pulled back up, which is a critical level that once supported Bitcoin's rise to a historic high in January this year. Currently, there are more and more new buyers for Bitcoin, MicroStrategy keeps buying, and more institutions are following suit. With the national team entering the market, this will bring a continuous stream of buying for Bitcoin. One hundred thousand is within reach; short-term traders can sell while pulling back around 95,000 to 100,000, and then wait for a wave of emotional release before re-entering. Additionally, there are many data releases this week, so take profits when necessary. Long-term players can hold steady and not worry about being in the same boat as the institutions; just wait peacefully for the bull market to come.
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65 points
Average
If you keep practicing these days, you should be satisfied
There are two phones that I didn't bring with me, and I haven't practiced for two or three days
Today I checked, and if I don't practice, this score will drop!
Average
If you keep practicing these days, you should be satisfied
There are two phones that I didn't bring with me, and I haven't practiced for two or three days
Today I checked, and if I don't practice, this score will drop!
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Bitcoin Becomes Digital Gold, What Impact Do Tariffs Still Have? Will It Continue to Rise After Testing Support?
The change in market conditions last week was highly indicative for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. Market funds finally view Bitcoin as 'digital gold' and are gradually decoupling from the performance of U.S. stocks. Price fluctuations quickly overlapped with gold, pushing Bitcoin's price directly up to $94,000, with a weekly increase of 12%. Although U.S. stocks rebounded, the trends clearly showed a significant gap with cryptocurrencies.
Central banks around the world may gradually reduce their reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds due to uncertainties in U.S. tariffs, fiscal policy, and economy, turning to alternative assets including gold and Bitcoin, which has also driven up the prices of gold and Bitcoin.
Central banks around the world may gradually reduce their reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds due to uncertainties in U.S. tariffs, fiscal policy, and economy, turning to alternative assets including gold and Bitcoin, which has also driven up the prices of gold and Bitcoin.
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Good morning! Today's panic index is 54, and the market has turned neutral. There is a hypothesis to be verified: if the market opens up at the beginning of the week, the market will perform well throughout the week; if the market opens down, then the market will not do well for the entire week. Let's see how this week goes. Back to the market, Bitcoin is currently retracing to 9.3. It rose for a whole week last week, so a slight dip is reasonable; it's understandable for profit-taking. I've been emphasizing to everyone that this is a rebound in the market, not a reversal. 90,000 is still a critical line for survival. The economic situation in the U.S. is still not good, so remember to take profits in short-term speculations. I remain optimistic in the long term; if there is a big drop, be bold and get in.
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Don't miss out, check which projects are eligible for airdrops!
Sorted out airdrop claimable projects from April 21, 2025, to April 27, 2025. Which ones can still be claimed? Check if you still qualify. Due to article limitations, links cannot be posted; you can find the query address in the comments or send a private message to the backend, or go directly to the project’s official website, ensuring it is the official site.
Zora Airdrop Eligibility
Zora is an on-chain social network based on Base, where every post made by users can be tokenized. The project announced the opening of airdrop claims on April 24, with the first snapshot completed on March 3, 2025, and the second snapshot completed on April 21. Users interacting during the snapshot period are eligible for the airdrop.
Zora Airdrop Eligibility
Zora is an on-chain social network based on Base, where every post made by users can be tokenized. The project announced the opening of airdrop claims on April 24, with the first snapshot completed on March 3, 2025, and the second snapshot completed on April 21. Users interacting during the snapshot period are eligible for the airdrop.
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Bitcoin Gears Up for $100,000! What Key Signals Are the Whales Sending?
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen nearly 12% in the past week, reaffirming its bullish trend after breaking through key technical levels and approaching a strong resistance area. This bullish momentum is driven by a slight rebound in the number of whale wallets - indicating that large investors may be starting to accumulate funds again.
Technical analysis tools such as the Ichimoku system and EMA moving averages indicate that the market is exhibiting a robust upward trend, while the current trading patterns suggest that buyers are in control of the market. As BTC approaches $100,000, the behavior of whale wallets and chart signals will be key in determining whether this rebound has enough momentum to continue breaking through.
Technical analysis tools such as the Ichimoku system and EMA moving averages indicate that the market is exhibiting a robust upward trend, while the current trading patterns suggest that buyers are in control of the market. As BTC approaches $100,000, the behavior of whale wallets and chart signals will be key in determining whether this rebound has enough momentum to continue breaking through.
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