不做韭菜要做资本
每日宏观分析，大盘走势解读，一起把握区块链时代的红利，公众号不做韭菜要做资本
15 Following
3.0K+ Followers
5.0K+ Liked
638 Shared
Posts
Quotes
Videos
See original
PINNED
How crazy can the next bull market be? How to find 100x coins?
Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
See original
Institutions are fully increasing their positions! If Bitcoin tests 100,000 again, those without positions must get on board.
Yesterday, the U.S. stock market was closed for a holiday, and global key stock markets, except for Taiwan's weighted index, saw significant declines. Although the U.S. stock market was closed, the futures market also experienced a nearly 1% drop. If one had to find a reason for the decline, the traditional explanation is that with the U.S. stock market closed, the market lacks direction, causing investors to withdraw liquidity, leading to a sell-off. However, the consensus in the market is that the situation in the Middle East is likely to escalate over the weekend, so there is a unanimous retreat to observe.
The cryptocurrency market is also not to be outdone, with Bitcoin hovering around 104,000 and Ethereum oscillating around 2,500 for six consecutive weeks. Looking at Coinglass's Bitcoin liquidation map, short-term high-leverage contracts are also betting on the range between 103,000 and 106,000. If there is no major news to guide the direction before the weekend, it is highly likely that market makers will focus on liquidating contracts at these two price points and oscillating up and down. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to test 100,000 again.
The cryptocurrency market is also not to be outdone, with Bitcoin hovering around 104,000 and Ethereum oscillating around 2,500 for six consecutive weeks. Looking at Coinglass's Bitcoin liquidation map, short-term high-leverage contracts are also betting on the range between 103,000 and 106,000. If there is no major news to guide the direction before the weekend, it is highly likely that market makers will focus on liquidating contracts at these two price points and oscillating up and down. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to test 100,000 again.
See original
Today's panic index is 54, maintaining a neutral state.
The US stock market was closed yesterday, so there wasn't much fluctuation in the market. Now, the more uncertain the market is, the more funds will withdraw to observe. Short-term high-leverage contracts are also betting on the range of $103,000 and $106,000. If there are no significant news events to guide the direction before the weekend, it is highly likely that the focus will be on liquidating contracts at these two price levels, with fluctuations up and down.
Everyone is waiting for the stance of the Americans. If they truly engage in the conflict, they will definitely test below $100,000. Those trading contracts should hedge, and for those trading spot, the same advice applies: a sharp drop is an opportunity, and the continuous buying from large companies is the best example.
The US stock market was closed yesterday, so there wasn't much fluctuation in the market. Now, the more uncertain the market is, the more funds will withdraw to observe. Short-term high-leverage contracts are also betting on the range of $103,000 and $106,000. If there are no significant news events to guide the direction before the weekend, it is highly likely that the focus will be on liquidating contracts at these two price levels, with fluctuations up and down.
Everyone is waiting for the stance of the Americans. If they truly engage in the conflict, they will definitely test below $100,000. Those trading contracts should hedge, and for those trading spot, the same advice applies: a sharp drop is an opportunity, and the continuous buying from large companies is the best example.
See original
The Federal Reserve holds steady, delaying rate cuts again; whether the U.S. will intervene in the war will absolutely determine the next move.
The FOMC announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, in line with market expectations.
Although Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a brief decline below $104,000 after the announcement, it quickly stabilized and had returned to the $105,000 level at the time of writing, demonstrating its resilience to changes in macroeconomic policy. Continued buying by institutional investors is the main driver of Bitcoin's price stabilization.
After the FOMC meeting, Powell stated at a press conference that the U.S. economy is growing steadily. Although inflationary pressures remain, there is no rush to cut rates. The market reacted mildly, with no significant bearish or bullish signals.
Although Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a brief decline below $104,000 after the announcement, it quickly stabilized and had returned to the $105,000 level at the time of writing, demonstrating its resilience to changes in macroeconomic policy. Continued buying by institutional investors is the main driver of Bitcoin's price stabilization.
After the FOMC meeting, Powell stated at a press conference that the U.S. economy is growing steadily. Although inflationary pressures remain, there is no rush to cut rates. The market reacted mildly, with no significant bearish or bullish signals.
Translate
早上好！
今日恐慌指数为57，保持中性状态。老鲍的发言其实是偏鹰的，但市场本来预期的就是会维持利率不变，所以并没有很大的利空，机构的持续买入是比特币价格回稳的主要因素。老美经济依然强劲、就业数据理想，但通膨未见下降，关税影响依然难以预计，所以维持目前利率水平。当下来看属于利空落地，所以对后市场影响不会过大，目前能左右市场的是中东局势，老美会否参与战争依然会是市场转折点。短暂波动更多源于市场的情绪反应，而非根本面变化。
今日恐慌指数为57，保持中性状态。老鲍的发言其实是偏鹰的，但市场本来预期的就是会维持利率不变，所以并没有很大的利空，机构的持续买入是比特币价格回稳的主要因素。老美经济依然强劲、就业数据理想，但通膨未见下降，关税影响依然难以预计，所以维持目前利率水平。当下来看属于利空落地，所以对后市场影响不会过大，目前能左右市场的是中东局势，老美会否参与战争依然会是市场转折点。短暂波动更多源于市场的情绪反应，而非根本面变化。
See original
A Sharp Drop is a Great Opportunity! Three Key Indicators Show BTC is About to Charge Forward
Ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the next rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, the market began to reduce risk, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $103,300.
This adjustment follows a bearish weekly chart, indicating a trend reversal, while geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have intensified risk aversion.
The decline in Bitcoin's price is not entirely influenced by the macro environment. This drop coincides with seasonal weakness and a slowdown in on-chain network growth, indicating that spot demand has cooled.
This adjustment follows a bearish weekly chart, indicating a trend reversal, while geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have intensified risk aversion.
The decline in Bitcoin's price is not entirely influenced by the macro environment. This drop coincides with seasonal weakness and a slowdown in on-chain network growth, indicating that spot demand has cooled.
See original
Good morning!
Today's panic index is 52, shifting to a neutral state.
Originally, it seemed that the market was no longer affected by the developments, so it began to gradually warm up. However, it hasn't stabilized for a day when a statement from Trump brought it down. Whether the Americans go to war directly affects the rise and fall; Trump's statement yesterday about 'actively considering entering the war' caused Bitcoin to drop below $104,000. If the Americans engage, the nature of the situation will be different, and Bitcoin is likely to drop below $100,000.
Tonight, there is also the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. If Powell speaks hawkishly and continues to maintain the current short-term interest rate policy, it will undoubtedly accelerate this downward trend. Currently, the conflict may push oil prices higher again, increasing inflation risks, giving Powell more reasons to maintain a wait-and-see stance, so short-term market bearish factors have not been eliminated.
However, the spot market is a rare opportunity to pick up chips, with discounts on 618 coins, and priority should be given to DEFI for altcoins.
Today's panic index is 52, shifting to a neutral state.
Originally, it seemed that the market was no longer affected by the developments, so it began to gradually warm up. However, it hasn't stabilized for a day when a statement from Trump brought it down. Whether the Americans go to war directly affects the rise and fall; Trump's statement yesterday about 'actively considering entering the war' caused Bitcoin to drop below $104,000. If the Americans engage, the nature of the situation will be different, and Bitcoin is likely to drop below $100,000.
Tonight, there is also the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. If Powell speaks hawkishly and continues to maintain the current short-term interest rate policy, it will undoubtedly accelerate this downward trend. Currently, the conflict may push oil prices higher again, increasing inflation risks, giving Powell more reasons to maintain a wait-and-see stance, so short-term market bearish factors have not been eliminated.
However, the spot market is a rare opportunity to pick up chips, with discounts on 618 coins, and priority should be given to DEFI for altcoins.
See original
The policy green light is on: A raging bull market is imminent for DeFi, which tokens to hoard?
On June 9, a roundtable hosted by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, focused on cryptocurrencies, signaled multiple indications that crypto and DeFi participants may be heading towards a favorable situation. This marks the most supportive stance from U.S. regulators towards DeFi in history, although most have yet to realize this. While formal legislation has not yet occurred, this could very well be the catalyst for a new wave of DeFi resurgence led by the U.S.
Key positive signals from the SEC roundtable
1. Financial Independence
2. Eliminate the uncertainty of the Howey Test: Staking, mining, and validators — not securities
Key positive signals from the SEC roundtable
1. Financial Independence
2. Eliminate the uncertainty of the Howey Test: Staking, mining, and validators — not securities
See original
Good morning!
Today's fear index is 68, indicating a state of greed.
The factors currently influencing Bitcoin's price trend include: institutional capital flows, overall economic data, and the increasingly heated geopolitical risks. Currently, market liquidity remains ample, and institutional buying has not shown any signs of retreat. If the situation eases, Bitcoin will likely experience a strong breakout.
Trump has recently been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates by a full percentage point, otherwise "the White House will have to take tough measures." Pay close attention to the upcoming FOMC interest rate meeting results; as mentioned yesterday, hold onto what you have for now and see what Old Powell has to say.
Today's fear index is 68, indicating a state of greed.
The factors currently influencing Bitcoin's price trend include: institutional capital flows, overall economic data, and the increasingly heated geopolitical risks. Currently, market liquidity remains ample, and institutional buying has not shown any signs of retreat. If the situation eases, Bitcoin will likely experience a strong breakout.
Trump has recently been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates by a full percentage point, otherwise "the White House will have to take tough measures." Pay close attention to the upcoming FOMC interest rate meeting results; as mentioned yesterday, hold onto what you have for now and see what Old Powell has to say.
See original
Inflation Retreat + Rising Expectations for Rate Cuts, Where is the Next Catalyst for the Crypto Market?
The US-China tariff war and real gunfire in the Middle East... yet Bitcoin shows surprising stability around the $105,000 mark.
Dual support from interest rate cut expectations and easing inflation
Certainty dividends from the shift in monetary policy
CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in Q3 has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of Bitcoin's term structure: the annualized premium for the futures contract expiring on June 15 has risen to 23%, a new high since the 2024 halving. Historical data shows that the average increase in Bitcoin three months before the start of a rate cut cycle is 37%, far exceeding gold's 12%.
Dual support from interest rate cut expectations and easing inflation
Certainty dividends from the shift in monetary policy
CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in Q3 has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of Bitcoin's term structure: the annualized premium for the futures contract expiring on June 15 has risen to 23%, a new high since the 2024 halving. Historical data shows that the average increase in Bitcoin three months before the start of a rate cut cycle is 37%, far exceeding gold's 12%.
See original
Good afternoon, brothers. I was delayed by some matters in the morning. Today's panic index is 61, still in a state of greed. As I said, there's no need to panic about the drop; boldly increase your positions and see, isn't it about to rise back up? Moreover, this rebound is occurring in the absence of positive news. If some significant good news comes, it could directly break through new highs. Currently, the inflow of whale and retail addresses for Bitcoin on Binance has dropped to an all-time low. This indicates that both groups tend to hold their coins without action, suggesting there is still potential for an upward trend. Tuesday's retail sales data, Wednesday's unemployment figures, and Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate results are on the agenda. The market currently expects interest rates to remain unchanged; let's see what old Powell has to say and whether he will soften his stance or lean dovish, as well as the expectations for interest rate cuts.
See original
Altcoin Season Index Hits Bottom: Do They Still Have a Chance in 2025?
Recently, the Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 26, far below the 'altcoin season' threshold of 75, indicating that the market is still in the Bitcoin-dominated (BTC Season) phase. However, historical data shows that this index often rebounds after hitting a bottom, so is there still a chance for altcoins this year? How should retail investors respond?
Inflow of funds into the market decreases: fluctuations remain stable.
Despite the altcoin market experiencing severe price fluctuations, the number of altcoins flowing into exchanges (exchange inflow transaction volume) remains surprisingly low.
At major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bybit, the trading volume of altcoin deposits rarely exceeds 30,000—a far cry from the peaks above 100,000 seen during significant corrections in March and December 2024.
Inflow of funds into the market decreases: fluctuations remain stable.
Despite the altcoin market experiencing severe price fluctuations, the number of altcoins flowing into exchanges (exchange inflow transaction volume) remains surprisingly low.
At major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bybit, the trading volume of altcoin deposits rarely exceeds 30,000—a far cry from the peaks above 100,000 seen during significant corrections in March and December 2024.
See original
Is it worth heavily investing in SOL at 144 now?
From the current publicly available information and market feedback, the Solana spot ETF is expected to receive formal approval within the next 2 to 3 weeks, becoming another "mainstream entry channel" following BTC and ETH.
In the short term, the SOL price may be further driven by capital expectations, impacting the $200–$300 range; in the medium term, whether it can replicate the explosive growth of BTC depends on two variables:
1. Whether the ETF structural design can solve the staking issue and truly achieve the dual goals of "on-chain yield + regulatory transparency";
2. Whether the on-chain ecosystem can accommodate the new flow and trading demands, building a solid "capital + application" closed loop.
From the current publicly available information and market feedback, the Solana spot ETF is expected to receive formal approval within the next 2 to 3 weeks, becoming another "mainstream entry channel" following BTC and ETH.
In the short term, the SOL price may be further driven by capital expectations, impacting the $200–$300 range; in the medium term, whether it can replicate the explosive growth of BTC depends on two variables:
1. Whether the ETF structural design can solve the staking issue and truly achieve the dual goals of "on-chain yield + regulatory transparency";
2. Whether the on-chain ecosystem can accommodate the new flow and trading demands, building a solid "capital + application" closed loop.
See original
The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, but the market has not declined; focus on Powell's upcoming remarks that will determine the market's fate.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has reignited, causing the cryptocurrency market to retreat from its highs as the weekend approaches, erasing the gains made over the past week due to positive economic data from the United States. Although there was no conclusion to the China-U.S. trade negotiations at the beginning of last week, a preliminary agreement was reached, with both sides agreeing in principle to open trade, pending details to be finalized. As a result, the market sentiment was optimistic at the start of the week, and Bitcoin rose back above $110,000, waiting for Wednesday's CPI results to see if it can challenge new highs again.
Last Wednesday, the CPI announced a lower-than-expected figure, and on Thursday, the PPI and unemployment data also indicated that inflation in the U.S. was not deteriorating as anticipated, while the job market began to slow down. This data is entirely favorable for interest rate cuts, leading the market to speculate that cuts could occur as early as September, stimulating the market to maintain high volatility.
Last Wednesday, the CPI announced a lower-than-expected figure, and on Thursday, the PPI and unemployment data also indicated that inflation in the U.S. was not deteriorating as anticipated, while the job market began to slow down. This data is entirely favorable for interest rate cuts, leading the market to speculate that cuts could occur as early as September, stimulating the market to maintain high volatility.
See original
Today's panic index is 60, still in a greedy state. The market is quiet. Liquidity is low on weekends, and coupled with the negative news hanging over their heads, most funds are in a wait-and-see state. The good thing is that the conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, but the market has stopped falling, and Bitcoin has recorded ETF fund inflows for five consecutive days. In the long run, the most important thing for Bitcoin is not geopolitics, but the US dollar index (DXY). The US dollar index just fell below 100, hitting its lowest level in more than three years. Obviously, the US dollar is falling, and Bitcoin usually moves in the opposite direction. Since the negative news can't fall further, there will be a retaliatory rebound when the negative news eases, so hold the currency patiently and wait.
See original
The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the market will fluctuate for a while before soaring, and if it stops fighting, it will soar immediately.
Despite Israel's recent airstrikes on Iran, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently stable at around $106,000.
The short-term price trend of Bitcoin will depend on the developments of the Iran conflict today and over the weekend. The biggest risk is if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will soar, and risk assets will plummet. If this happens over the weekend, all-weather markets like cryptocurrencies will be hit first.
However, Bitcoin's long-term prospects are less affected by geopolitical issues and are more related to the weakening of the US dollar (the dollar recently fell to its lowest point in three years), indicating that limited supply assets like Bitcoin have long-term upside potential.
The short-term price trend of Bitcoin will depend on the developments of the Iran conflict today and over the weekend. The biggest risk is if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will soar, and risk assets will plummet. If this happens over the weekend, all-weather markets like cryptocurrencies will be hit first.
However, Bitcoin's long-term prospects are less affected by geopolitical issues and are more related to the weakening of the US dollar (the dollar recently fell to its lowest point in three years), indicating that limited supply assets like Bitcoin have long-term upside potential.
See original
I was quite surprised to see this
A typical case of a fool with money
Whether it's a cold wallet or a hot wallet
Everyone must remember to go official
Additionally, for recovery phrases and private keys
If possible, handwrite them
Avoid transacting online
You never know which link might be infected with a Trojan
A typical case of a fool with money
Whether it's a cold wallet or a hot wallet
Everyone must remember to go official
Additionally, for recovery phrases and private keys
If possible, handwrite them
Avoid transacting online
You never know which link might be infected with a Trojan
See original
Today's panic index is 63, still in a state of greed.
Conflicts are still ongoing, so the market is hesitant to surge; those holding Bitcoin can continue to do so, as it won't drop much.
Currently, ETH has become the focal point of capital flowing against the trend. On-chain data reveals that most institutions and whales are "increasing positions to protect the market." The stable ascending channel pattern is still maintained, and combined with seasonal corrections and expectations for year-end investment strategies, multiple signals support a breakthrough rise for ETH by the end of 2025. The trend towards institutionalization is gradually pushing ETH into the mainstream investment market. Therefore, the current cost-performance ratio of ETH is higher than that of Bitcoin, so it’s good to gradually enter the market at 2500-2300-2000.
Conflicts are still ongoing, so the market is hesitant to surge; those holding Bitcoin can continue to do so, as it won't drop much.
Currently, ETH has become the focal point of capital flowing against the trend. On-chain data reveals that most institutions and whales are "increasing positions to protect the market." The stable ascending channel pattern is still maintained, and combined with seasonal corrections and expectations for year-end investment strategies, multiple signals support a breakthrough rise for ETH by the end of 2025. The trend towards institutionalization is gradually pushing ETH into the mainstream investment market. Therefore, the current cost-performance ratio of ETH is higher than that of Bitcoin, so it’s good to gradually enter the market at 2500-2300-2000.
See original
Today's panic index is 61, a significant decrease but still in a state of greed.
The market is fluctuating, rising and falling repeatedly. Regulatory bodies are sending positive signals, and data is looking good, all urging the FED to cut interest rates quickly. However, the conflict in Israel has pulled the market down again, and there are still concerns about the instability brought by the situation in the Middle East. The market trend next week is unlikely to be optimistic. The market itself has low liquidity over the weekend, and if the conflict escalates further, it could impact the stock market on Monday, while the cryptocurrency market, which operates year-round, will be hit first over the weekend. However, from a long-term perspective, the fundamentals of the market have not changed, so a downturn presents a buying opportunity. Bitcoin has strong support at 100,000; those holding cash can consider entering at 100,000, while Ethereum is at 2,400.
The market is fluctuating, rising and falling repeatedly. Regulatory bodies are sending positive signals, and data is looking good, all urging the FED to cut interest rates quickly. However, the conflict in Israel has pulled the market down again, and there are still concerns about the instability brought by the situation in the Middle East. The market trend next week is unlikely to be optimistic. The market itself has low liquidity over the weekend, and if the conflict escalates further, it could impact the stock market on Monday, while the cryptocurrency market, which operates year-round, will be hit first over the weekend. However, from a long-term perspective, the fundamentals of the market have not changed, so a downturn presents a buying opportunity. Bitcoin has strong support at 100,000; those holding cash can consider entering at 100,000, while Ethereum is at 2,400.
See original
The altcoin market is heating up, with key points for some altcoins.
Historical experience repeatedly verifies: the market specializes in punishing those indecisive traders. Just last week, Ethereum (ETH) finally ended a months-long dormant period, and its breakout not only indicates the upward potential of ETH itself but also sends a strong signal—the altcoin season is about to fully kick off.
These highly volatile assets often "hesitate when falling and surge when rising." Currently, I am actively adjusting my positions to prepare for a possible surge in altcoins that may be coming.
Key technical points:
Bitcoin (BTC): If it can hold $100,000, the price is expected to be between $140,000 and $160,000 for the foreseeable future.
These highly volatile assets often "hesitate when falling and surge when rising." Currently, I am actively adjusting my positions to prepare for a possible surge in altcoins that may be coming.
Key technical points:
Bitcoin (BTC): If it can hold $100,000, the price is expected to be between $140,000 and $160,000 for the foreseeable future.
Login to explore more contents