一生一心缠论说

Judging from the chart, everything is as expected.
Don't rush to buy the bottom!!!
I have something to do this morning, so I won't post the early trading video.
#比特币价格走势分析
$BTC $ETH

Last Saturday night, the live broadcast clearly warned of the high-risk position of Bitcoin, and it is currently being verified......$BTC

For those who want to buy at the bottom of the big selling point, please see the picture $BTC $ETH $BNB #比特币市场波动观察 #加密市场回调 #

Chande Theory Analysis 1214: BTC is in a bearish phase at the hourly level, and a new direction will emerge next week

Since BTC officially broke through $100,000 to reach a high of $104,088 on December 5, it has ended a one-sided uptrend and started a wide fluctuation pattern with high volatility, oscillating between $102,000 and $94,000, with a range of 8,000 to 10,000 points. The current price is $101,488. The wide fluctuation at high levels has lasted over 10 days, indicating that the market's consistent bullish expectations have been broken, and both bulls and bears are in disagreement over the price, engaging in fierce tug-of-war and games around the relative price range. As time passes and news influences the market, one side will eventually overcome the other and break out of this fluctuation range. Key news to focus on is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting next Thursday morning. The market generally believes that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. is over 94%, and this timing could trigger a major showdown between bulls and bears, ultimately determining the mid-term direction of Bitcoin. Another point to note is that Bitcoin spot ETF has seen significant net inflows since this month, which is a solid foundation for Bitcoin to maintain its high-level fluctuations. If the ETF's net inflow does not continue, the market bulls and bears might have already determined the winner. However, it is important to note that the ETF cannot maintain large net inflows indefinitely; when the inflow of funds decreases or even turns into outflows, it is likely to be a turning point for the market. Today is already December 14, close to the end of the year and Christmas. At this time, market capital flows will be very active, which is something to be vigilant about. Returning to the current market situation, through multi-level analysis using Chande Theory, the large-level weekly and daily charts of BTC do not show selling points, indicating that the larger cycle will continue to rise. However, just because the larger cycle is bullish does not mean that there won't be adjustments in the medium to short term. There is no market that only rises without falling; medium to short-term adjustments are certainly for better upward movements in the future. Only through a certain degree of adjustment to wash out positions and facilitate turnover can Bitcoin's future move towards a healthier, higher, and further path!

Looking directly at the hourly chart, the yellow box represents the central area. The current price is above the central area, indicating a potential sell point at the hourly level. For short-term traders, it is recommended to sell first and buy later. Even if a new high is reached, it is likely a divergence sell point, and those with heavy positions should primarily reduce their holdings.

Chained Theory Market Analysis 1206: BTC Breaks 100,000, Perfect Bull and Bear Explosion!

BTC has broken the $100,000 mark, and we have witnessed the glorious moment of the big pie (BTC) advancing to six figures for the first time, with the market cheering joyfully! However, this big pie that has just ascended to the six-figure throne brings not only excitement to the market but also showcases the cruelty and bloodiness of the capital market!
First, let's look at the liquidation chart for the past 24 hours. Due to a sudden drop at 6 AM to $90,500, it is estimated that some data hasn't been included in the statistics yet. From the chart, it is evident that the big pie breaking $100,000 triggered FOMO sentiment, ultimately causing the big pie to violently spike downwards, hitting the market's long buyers hard, wiping them out completely!
This is the true face of the market, without any concealment or pretentiousness, a sudden spike up and down, all in one go!
Just yesterday morning, when the market broke $100,000, at its most frantic moment, the community founder promptly issued a clear reduction signal in the muted group:

Making contrarian decisions during the craziest times is extremely challenging and requires a significant ability to perceive market trends and technical expertise. Looking back, the community crazily reminded us of the best bottom-buying opportunity when the big pie was at $49,000 on August 5, during the most panic-stricken times, and firmly reduced positions when the market sentiment was high after breaking $100,000. We believe actions speak louder than words, and there is no need for further elaboration!
Returning to the current market situation, the big pie surged past $100,000, creating a trap for longs and then executing a sharp reversal at the extreme, with the market choosing the most opportune moment to raise the butcher's knife high! Whether this will trigger a major turning point in the market is still unknown, but at least a downward correction on the daily chart is hard to avoid.

First, looking at the daily chart, yesterday's daily candlestick was like the golden staff in the hands of Sun Wukong, sweeping away the monsters and demons in the market! This spike is highly likely to trigger at least one downward correction on the daily chart. Since Trump was elected president, the market has not experienced a proper correction or washout, which is unhealthy. The bullish force will eventually come to an end, and through violent washouts at high positions, then oscillation to digest, and solidify the foundation, the big pie can create even higher heights in the future.

Now looking at the 4-hour chart, it is clear that the surge past $100,000 yesterday morning did not result in increased volume, which is a classic trap for longs: three buys turn into one sell! Moreover, the yellow-white line and green bars are both diverging. This morning's spike reached the lower edge of the new 4-hour yellow central zone.

Chuan Lun Analysis 1130: Bitcoin Consolidates, Altcoins Dance!

After Bitcoin hit a correction low of 90791 on the 27th, it didn't stay at the low for long, quickly reversing to around 98000 in just two days, indicating strong bullish momentum. The current price is 97353. In the morning analysis on the 28th, this account mentioned the probability of a V-shaped rebound based on the strength of the rebound. On the 29th, it was advised to expect an upward rebound on the hourly level. When formulating a trading plan, we need to continuously adjust based on the strength of the trend and structure; we must not be stubborn, or we will suffer losses. Regardless of whether this upward rebound on the hourly level can break new highs, the weekend is a time for altcoins to perform, so we can choose strong trends and good structures to replenish positions. Enough talk, let's go directly to the chart:

Chuan Theory Market Analysis 1126: The classic reversal pattern of BTC has finally come!

What was bound to happen has finally happened, albeit late!

In last Friday's article "Trend Extension", a warning about the high-risk of BTC was issued again! After reaching a new high of 99588 at midnight on the 23rd, Bitcoin has been undergoing high-level fluctuations for several consecutive days, including the weekend. At 5 PM yesterday, a rebound triggered a second sell at 98871, followed by a significant drop in volume during the night, reaching a low of 92600, with the current price at 94000.
This account issued a signal in the community at 6 AM on Saturday morning indicating that altcoins would experience a surge over the weekend. Over the two days of the weekend, many altcoins soared, with most seeing increases of 20-50%. Friends who kept up with the rhythm reaped substantial profits.

Risks often arise from price increases; this time, Bitcoin provided ample time for profit-taking before the major correction. Of course, those who couldn't take profits at the high need not panic; this is merely a downward correction at the 4-hour level. The bull market is still in its mid-to-late stages, and the overall direction remains bullish. Long-term positions may still be held, waiting for signals from larger structures.

First, let's look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. It can be seen that a strong top splitting pattern has emerged on the daily line. When combined with the position of the MACD and the alternating red and green bars, it can be judged that at least a downward correction on the daily line is needed. At this level, the high MACD retracing to the zero axis indicates that the secondary level needs to construct a base.

Next, looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that within the upward segment, there is a three-part divergence pattern, which is a classic reversal pattern in Chuan Theory. A downward correction in the 4-hour segment is about to take place, and the range of this correction can be referenced to the central range on the left side, with a high probability that it will result in a third buy before moving to the previous segment. The specific return position will need to focus on the growth evolution of the secondary level's trend type.

Finally, looking at the 30-minute level, the internal structure of the upward segment in the 4-hour chart can be seen very clearly at this level. The classic two central upward trends diverged downwards, followed by a rebound confirming the correction trend.
Summary: From the current correction's intensity, it is in a volume-increasing non-divergent downward state, so we can conclude that the decline will not end before a new 30-minute central pattern appears. Those looking to buy the dip are currently only targeting the small-level bottoms of 30 minutes and below. Major level opportunities require patience, with a time frame of at least 7 to 10 days.

Chande Theory Analysis 1122: Trend Extension

The strength of BTC has exceeded expectations. It was originally expected to at least first move down for 30 minutes, but it refused to pull back. The upward extension of the second central zone in 30 minutes has reached 98988, just a step away from the 100,000 mark!

From the perspective of the 30-minute chart of Bitcoin, the downward correction that should come will still come, and attention needs to be paid to the strength of this downward correction. Currently, chasing highs is clearly not suitable in terms of risk-reward ratio. The previously reduced position must at least wait for the emergence of a downward section in 30 minutes and observe the strength before deciding whether to replenish. If a red trend occurs, it indicates that the bullish strength is still strong, and there is hope to challenge the 100,000 mark!

As Bitcoin's trend continues to extend upwards, the king of altcoins, ETH, also started to gain strength last night. Around 8 PM last night, it experienced a surge in volume, while other altcoins also had a rebound. Ethereum has been suppressed for too long, and from a broader perspective, it will eventually return to its original position.

Looking directly at the 4-hour chart, what is currently running is the upward exit segment of the central zone. After a period of consolidation, it is highly likely to break through 3442 to complete this segment. After the end of the upward segment in 4 hours, there is a high probability that there will be another large-scale opportunity to enter the market: a third buy signal in 4 hours, and then challenge the historical high.

From multiple transitions between bull and bear markets, every bottom-fishing and top-guessing is equally difficult. One thing is certain: no one can buy at the lowest point, and no one can sell at the highest point. Of course, the bull market is only in the middle stage, and there is still a long way to go before the climax ends. A common occurrence in bull markets is the phenomenon of selling too early, so maintaining a good mindset is very important to avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

At this point in the market, whether to hold a full position and wait for a major selling signal or maintain a certain proportion of the position for short-term differences depends entirely on individual skills and mindset. Most participants in a bear market can completely relax and do nothing, but the opposite is true in a bull market, where personal desires and greed can be ignited, leading to a complete disregard for risk, ultimately leaving many investors stranded at the top!

Chuan Lun Analysis 1119: BTC is about to迎来中短线行情转折点

Since November 14, when BTC strongly reached a historical high of 93265 points, the market has been in a high-level fluctuation between 88000-92000. During this period, there have been two attempts to hit new highs, both unsuccessful, and the current price is 90515.
The market has now fallen into a state of anxiety. From the perspective of Chuan Lun technical structure analysis, whether it will set a new historical high again in the short term is no longer the key; the key is that the unilateral bullish market that started on October 11 at 58946 has already lasted more than a month and a half. Meanwhile, the strong third-buy operation at the 4-hour level that started at 65260 on October 24 has also exceeded 26 days, approaching a month. There is no market that only rises and does not fall; from the perspective of the time cycle, the mid-to-short-term market is already at its end.
From the perspective of the long-short game analysis, the prolonged volume increase has completely wiped out the bears, while the market has also accumulated too many profit positions. The market's long-short sentiment has been above the extremely greedy level of 80 for several consecutive days. From past historical experience, the market often chooses to operate in the direction with less resistance. It is obvious that continuing upward now faces significant resistance, and the big cake now has countless vampires attached to it. In order to continue rising healthily, a violent correction of more than ten thousand points is needed for a major cleanup. From a time perspective, the situation will become clear in the next few days!

First, let's look at the 4-hour Chuan Lun structure chart. It is clear from the chart that after the third buy, the segment has already shown three pen central upward trends, which is undoubtedly at the end of the segment. The only suspense is whether it will break the new high again to lure buyers before a drop or drop directly without breaking new highs.

Next, let's look at the lower-level 30-minute chart. The new central has been constructed, and what is currently running is the third segment buy point of the central moving upwards. The chart provides two classifications: whether or not it breaks a new high, even if it breaks a new high, it is likely to be a trap for buyers. The mid-to-short-term strategy should focus on reducing positions; going long should be short-term, as the cost-performance ratio is low and it is not worth chasing highs.

In summary: Selling points always appear in the midst of crazy increases! Regardless, when the market is full of FOMO sentiment, taking profits by gradually reducing positions is the best strategy, reducing three to four percent of positions to prepare for the upcoming big fluctuations.

Chaos Theory Analysis 1115: Will BTC show signs of peaking in the short term?

Since BTC surged to $90,000 on November 12 and hit a record high of 93,266 points in the early morning of the 14th, it ended the unilateral upward squeeze. It tried to hit a new high again at more than 10 o'clock last night and failed to pull back again. The current price is 87,300.
After the bulls started to violently increase the volume from the low starting point of 66,835 on November 5, they forced a strong squeeze all the way until the first 15-minute no-high second sell appeared last night. The second sell showed that the bulls had shown a certain fatigue. Does it mean that the big cake has peaked in the short term?
The high-level fluctuations between 85,000-92,000 for several consecutive days mean that the bulls and bears have differences in the price in this range. The bulls and bears fight fiercely in this range. In the end, one side will win and leave this range. As for whether to leave upward or downward, it needs to be classified and deduced based on the structure.
From the perspective of the 4-hour level, the market is still moving upward after the three buys, and it is a large-volume non-divergence rise, which means that there is no selling point at the large level, and the selling points that appear are all at the 30-minute level or below.

The clearest structure of the current short-term and medium-term is the 15-minute level, and this level has already taken the upward trend of two yellow centers. The figure shows two trend classifications, both of which indicate that there is a certain expectation of a short-term correction. As for whether to choose the red trend divergence and then turn after breaking the new high or the yellow two times without setting a new high and selling the second turn, you can only choose to follow the strength of the upward rebound in the past two days. Once the selling point appears again, the short-term position should be mainly reduced, leaving some positions to cope with the short-term downward trend.
Summary: From the perspective of the large level, the current trend is still relatively healthy, there is no selling point, and it is likely to continue to extend upward. However, due to the excessive increase in the short-term, the long and short have diverged, and the 15-minute level selling point has appeared, which is likely to trigger a wave of correction. The so-called bull market has many plunges. If you want to open up the upward space, there will definitely be many downward pins to clean the leverage.