Chuan Lun Analysis 1119: BTC is about to迎来中短线行情转折点

Since November 14, when BTC strongly reached a historical high of 93265 points, the market has been in a high-level fluctuation between 88000-92000. During this period, there have been two attempts to hit new highs, both unsuccessful, and the current price is 90515.

The market has now fallen into a state of anxiety. From the perspective of Chuan Lun technical structure analysis, whether it will set a new historical high again in the short term is no longer the key; the key is that the unilateral bullish market that started on October 11 at 58946 has already lasted more than a month and a half. Meanwhile, the strong third-buy operation at the 4-hour level that started at 65260 on October 24 has also exceeded 26 days, approaching a month. There is no market that only rises and does not fall; from the perspective of the time cycle, the mid-to-short-term market is already at its end.

From the perspective of the long-short game analysis, the prolonged volume increase has completely wiped out the bears, while the market has also accumulated too many profit positions. The market's long-short sentiment has been above the extremely greedy level of 80 for several consecutive days. From past historical experience, the market often chooses to operate in the direction with less resistance. It is obvious that continuing upward now faces significant resistance, and the big cake now has countless vampires attached to it. In order to continue rising healthily, a violent correction of more than ten thousand points is needed for a major cleanup. From a time perspective, the situation will become clear in the next few days!

First, let's look at the 4-hour Chuan Lun structure chart. It is clear from the chart that after the third buy, the segment has already shown three pen central upward trends, which is undoubtedly at the end of the segment. The only suspense is whether it will break the new high again to lure buyers before a drop or drop directly without breaking new highs.

Next, let's look at the lower-level 30-minute chart. The new central has been constructed, and what is currently running is the third segment buy point of the central moving upwards. The chart provides two classifications: whether or not it breaks a new high, even if it breaks a new high, it is likely to be a trap for buyers. The mid-to-short-term strategy should focus on reducing positions; going long should be short-term, as the cost-performance ratio is low and it is not worth chasing highs.

In summary: Selling points always appear in the midst of crazy increases! Regardless, when the market is full of FOMO sentiment, taking profits by gradually reducing positions is the best strategy, reducing three to four percent of positions to prepare for the upcoming big fluctuations.