I started feeling uncomfortable in my throat yesterday morning, and today it is even worse than yesterday. I just tried to speak and it came out unclear, like a duck. I can't record a video, so I can only send a short text to briefly discuss the market situation. Additionally, in a couple of days, it will be the Qingming Festival, and I plan to take a break for two days after that. I will continue my work after Qingming. I wish everyone a safe and peaceful Qingming in advance!
Returning to the current market situation, since the three sells on the 4-hour chart have appeared, we will patiently wait for a downward structure to emerge in the next segment before considering whether to start intervening. Generally, a 4-hour trend lasts at least 10 days to half a month, so from a time cycle perspective, starting from the high point of 88765 on the 24th until today, April 1st, only one week has passed. Besides the lack of an internal structure in the downward segment, the time cycle is also insufficient. Directly to the chart: Observing from the 4-hour level, the appearance of three sells indicates that the downward trend of the main currency on the 4-hour chart has shifted from a central consolidation to a downward trend of two centers, and it is currently constructing the second center. There are no major trading opportunities until the second center is completed! The major trading opportunity lies in the buying point when the second center on the 4-hour level is completed and breaks the new low trend divergence, which at the earliest will be around mid-April to early May.
Next, we need to pay attention to the relationship of buy and sell point conversion after the three sells: whether it is a buy that does not create a new low after three sells or a buy on a new low divergence. As for which trend the market will choose, we do not need to predict; we only need to follow the growth evolution of the downward trend type at the secondary level of 30 minutes.
As for when it is safer to catch the bottom, a basic judgment criterion is the daily bottom pattern. The downtrend will not end until the daily bottom pattern appears; more specifically, without the daily bottom pattern, it is impossible for the daily level to produce an upward movement. Simply put, there is no upward movement at the daily level, only secondary or tertiary rebounds at the 4-hour level. This involves issues of levels, and I won't elaborate further today due to limited space.
See you next week!
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!