Since BTC officially broke through $100,000 and reached a high of 104,088 on December 5, it ended its unilateral upward trend and started a wide range of high-level fluctuations. The fluctuation range is between 8,000 and 10,000 points from 102,000 to 94,000. The current price is 101,488.
The high-level wide fluctuation has lasted for more than 10 days, indicating that the market's consensus expectation of rising prices has been broken, and the long and short sides have different views on prices, and are engaged in fierce tug-of-war and game around the relatively large price range. As time goes by and the news is affected, one side will eventually defeat the other and get out of this fluctuation range.
The news that needs to be focused on is the decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the early hours of next Thursday. The market generally believes that the probability of the United States cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is more than 94%, and this point in time may induce a decisive battle between bulls and bears, and ultimately determine the mid-line direction of the market.
Another point worth noting is that the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has continued to have a large net inflow since this month, which is a solid foundation for Bitcoin to maintain high volatility. If there is no continuous net inflow of ETFs, I am afraid that the market long and short positions would have already decided the winner. However, it is worth noting that ETFs cannot maintain a large net inflow all the time. When the inflow of funds decreases or even turns to outflow, it is likely to be a turning point in the market.
Today is December 14th and it is close to the end of the year and Christmas. At this time, the market capital flow changes will be very active, which is also worthy of vigilance.
Back to the current market situation, judging comprehensively from the trends at all levels of the Chaos Theory, BTC has no selling points at the weekly and daily levels, which means that the big cycle will continue to rise, but the bullish trend in the big cycle does not mean that there will be no correction in the short and medium term. There is no market that only rises but never falls. The correction in the short and medium term is of course for a better rise in the future. Only through a certain degree of correction to wash the chips and change hands, and consolidate the foundation, can the future of the big cake go healthier, higher and farther!
This account has been reminding people to get on the bottom-picking opportunities at various 4-hour levels on the day when the price plummeted to 49,000 on August 5 and for quite a long time thereafter, and has repeatedly stated in the live broadcast that it will not sell until the big bitcoin breaks through the high of 73,777. In the end, it enjoyed a perfect wave of major upswings, and on the morning of December 5, when the price of bitcoin broke through 100,000 US dollars and the sentiment was at its peak, this community announced a substantial reduction in positions and has secured profits ever since.
After several subsequent shock rebounds, the position has become smaller and smaller. What we need to do now is to patiently wait for a buying opportunity at least at the 4-hour level before covering the position.
The bitcoin price is oscillating at a high level, and there are no operating opportunities at any level. There are only trading opportunities at the central oscillation level and below in the 1-hour level.
Looking at the hourly chart directly, the yellow box is the center, and the current price is above the center, which is a potential 1-hour level second sell. For short-term traders, the suggestion is to sell first and then buy when a selling point appears. Even if it breaks a new high, it is most likely a divergence selling point. Those with heavy positions should still focus on reducing positions.
For those friends who have caught the main uptrend and have already reduced their positions and are approaching a turning point, the best way is to wait patiently for opportunities. You can choose to give up small-scale fluctuations and rest comfortably for a while. Sometimes rest is the best way to trade.
Also, I have something tonight, so the live broadcast will be suspended for a day. See you next week!