What is meant to come will eventually come, albeit late!
In last Friday's article (Trend Extension), a warning about the high-risk position of BTC was issued again! Bitcoin set a new high of 99,588 in the early morning of the 23rd, and has experienced high-level fluctuations for several consecutive days, including the weekend. At 5 PM yesterday, it rebounded to 98,871 in the 30-minute second sell, followed by a drop in volume during the early morning, hitting a low of 92,600, with the current price at 94,000.
This account issued a signal in the community at 6 AM on Saturday morning that altcoins would explode over the weekend. During the two days of the weekend, altcoins surged, with most altcoins seeing increases of 20-50%. Friends who kept up with the rhythm have made significant profits.
Risks are all derived from increases. This time, before the significant retracement of Bitcoin, enough time was given to reduce positions. Of course, those who did not manage to reduce their positions at high levels need not panic; it is currently only a downward retracement in the 4-hour level. The bull market is only in the mid to late stages; the overall direction is still bullish, and long-term positions may still continue to hold without movement, waiting for signals from the larger structural levels.
First, look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. The chart shows a strong top reversal pattern on the daily line. Combining the position of the MACD and the alternating red and green bars suggests that at least a downward retracement on the daily line is necessary. From this level, the high MACD retracing the zero axis indicates that a subordinate level needs to construct a center. This means that after the completion of the subordinate level's center construction, there is a high probability of continuing to break upwards.
Looking again at the 4-hour chart, it can be seen that the internal structure of the upward departure shows a three-part divergence pattern, which is a classic reversal pattern in the theory of Chan. It is expected that a downward retracement in the 4-hour chart will occur. The range for this retracement can refer to the center range on the left side, and it is highly probable that a third buying opportunity will appear before moving to the next upward segment. As for the specific position for the retracement, attention needs to be paid to the growth evolution of the subordinate level's trend type.
Finally, look at the 30-minute level. The upward departure structure from the 4-hour chart can be seen very clearly at this level. The classic two centers are showing an upward trend and a downward retracement before rebounding to confirm a selling trend.
Summary: From the current strength of the retracement, it is in a state of volume increase without divergence downward, so the conclusion can be drawn: the decline will not end before a new 30-minute center appears. Those wanting to catch the bottom are currently only at the bottom of the 30-minute level and below; larger opportunities require patience, and from a time cycle perspective, it will take at least 7 to 10 days.
Trading is a system.
Trading mantra, as the poem says:
Strategy is fundamental, logic is the framework.
Indicators are auxiliary, structure is king.
The plan is the spear, discipline is the shield.
Risk comes first, mindset is the defense.