Since BTC strongly reached an all-time high of 93265 points on November 14, the market has been oscillating between the high range of 88000-92000. During this period, there were two attempts to break the new high but failed, and the current price is 90515.
The market has reached a state of anxiety. From the perspective of Chai Theory technical structure analysis, whether it creates a new historical high again in the short term is no longer the key. The key point is that the one-sided upward trend that started on October 11 at 58946 has lasted more than a month and a half, and the strong three buys at the 4-hour level that started on October 24 at 65260 have also lasted more than 26 days, approaching a month. There is no market that only rises without falling, and from the perspective of time cycles, the short to medium term market is already at its end.
From the perspective of long-short game analysis, the prolonged increase in volume has completely blown up the shorts while the market has accumulated too many profit-taking positions. The market's long-short sentiment has remained above the extreme greed level of 80 points for several consecutive days. From historical experience, the market often chooses to move in the direction with less resistance, and obviously, continuing upwards now faces heavy resistance. The market is currently filled with numerous 'vampires', and to continue rising healthily, a violent correction of more than 10,000 points is needed for a thorough cleanup. We will see the outcome in the next couple of days!
First, let's look at the 4-hour chart structure of the Chai Theory. The chart clearly shows that after the third buy, a segment with increased volume has formed three central upward trends, and we are undoubtedly at the end of the segment. The only suspense is whether it will break the new high again to lure more buyers before a drop, or drop directly without breaking the new high.
Of course, the overall direction remains upward because the daily level is still in the stage of volume-upward movement without divergence, and no internal structure has appeared yet. The current pullback is merely a correction of the short to medium term or the 4-hour downward segment. This downward pullback is likely to produce a segment-like third buy before once again challenging the historical high.
Next, let's look at the 30-minute lower level chart. The new central point has been established, and the current operation is the third segment buy point of the central point moving upward. The chart provides two classifications; regardless of whether it breaks the new high or not, even if it breaks the new high, it is highly likely to be a trap for more buyers. The focus for the short to medium term should be on reducing positions, as any long positions are short-term and not worth chasing at a high cost-performance ratio.
In summary: selling points always appear during rampant rises! Regardless, when the market is filled with FOMO emotions, gradually reducing positions to take profits is the best strategy. Reducing positions by 30% to 40% will help cope with the upcoming large fluctuations.
