Chande Theory Analysis 1214: BTC is in a bearish phase at the hourly level, and a new direction will emerge next week

Since BTC officially broke through $100,000 to reach a high of $104,088 on December 5, it has ended a one-sided uptrend and started a wide fluctuation pattern with high volatility, oscillating between $102,000 and $94,000, with a range of 8,000 to 10,000 points. The current price is $101,488. The wide fluctuation at high levels has lasted over 10 days, indicating that the market's consistent bullish expectations have been broken, and both bulls and bears are in disagreement over the price, engaging in fierce tug-of-war and games around the relative price range. As time passes and news influences the market, one side will eventually overcome the other and break out of this fluctuation range. Key news to focus on is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting next Thursday morning. The market generally believes that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. is over 94%, and this timing could trigger a major showdown between bulls and bears, ultimately determining the mid-term direction of Bitcoin. Another point to note is that Bitcoin spot ETF has seen significant net inflows since this month, which is a solid foundation for Bitcoin to maintain its high-level fluctuations. If the ETF's net inflow does not continue, the market bulls and bears might have already determined the winner. However, it is important to note that the ETF cannot maintain large net inflows indefinitely; when the inflow of funds decreases or even turns into outflows, it is likely to be a turning point for the market. Today is already December 14, close to the end of the year and Christmas. At this time, market capital flows will be very active, which is something to be vigilant about. Returning to the current market situation, through multi-level analysis using Chande Theory, the large-level weekly and daily charts of BTC do not show selling points, indicating that the larger cycle will continue to rise. However, just because the larger cycle is bullish does not mean that there won't be adjustments in the medium to short term. There is no market that only rises without falling; medium to short-term adjustments are certainly for better upward movements in the future. Only through a certain degree of adjustment to wash out positions and facilitate turnover can Bitcoin's future move towards a healthier, higher, and further path!

Looking directly at the hourly chart, the yellow box represents the central area. The current price is above the central area, indicating a potential sell point at the hourly level. For short-term traders, it is recommended to sell first and buy later. Even if a new high is reached, it is likely a divergence sell point, and those with heavy positions should primarily reduce their holdings.