大圣趋势论

Can we play when VC is down?

In the context of VC, most of the time it just adds another reason for people to FOMO. Those with some vision will raise the stakes before investing, while those without vision won’t invest a penny. Some people jump on the bandwagon and invest, and in a previous MVB project, they issued tokens themselves, invested, and still didn’t admit it was their own issuance, with many born from VC.

In this round, I haven't seen any visionary VCs. In the previous round, the VCs on BSC and SUI were quite visionary; at least most people could make money. Waiting for this wave of slightly more visionary VCs to re-enter the market.

Can we follow the lead when the front line calls?

Most of the so-called front-line entries can't be chased at the moment; their small accounts are already full, and there are a bunch of followers behind them, manually entering to wait to be invested in. Most of the callouts at the moment can't be chased. The caller's friends and partners have already filled their positions, waiting for you to take over.

What I mentioned above is that you shouldn't enter at that moment, but after they have entered, you can take a look at the narrative, chip distribution, sentiment, etc., and calmly see whether to enter or not.

Can we play when the whole network is shouting?

Here we need to assess the space. When the whole network is shouting and feels the narrative is good, look at the current market value. If it clearly exceeds the current leading market value, there’s not much need to chase, after all, it’s small betting against big—what you’re betting on is the space.

Can we still enter when the front row addresses are unloading?

Many times, the dev’s clear small accounts are always unloading. I’ve been scared off by this several times, but they have a lot of tricks. Sometimes unloading from the front row is real unloading, and sometimes front row unloading means other small addresses are taking over. Real unloading usually happens without any movement from the front row, while many other addresses are unloading. What can retail investors do? They can't trace anything.

I often get asked, after analyzing and reviewing so much every day, have I made any money? Currently, my analysis and review are aimed at reducing losses. Now I’m losing less than before, which is a decent improvement. In this market, it’s not that you can’t make money; there are very few pure retail investors who can profit.

In summary, it’s all a gamble.

Two God Coins at Night
1. $Grassito
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The frogs launched by bonk directly sped through to 15m.
After being launched by bonk, it went up steadily after buying on tomo, but immediately plummeted after tomo burned the tokens, then it was picked up and rose all the way to 14m.
By the time I saw the purple frog, it was already too late, and the entry point was always poor.
I scraped a few sol with the scraper, which was considered successful.
It's quite impressive for the purple frog to reach this market cap, but considering the current SOL market, I believe the relay is still quite challenging. Let's see if there's a chance to go to the second stage later.
The second impressive coin is $Lemon
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Lemon's candlestick chart is really impressive, it took off right after being launched.
It washed me out 3 times in between, but I eventually bought in to gamble.

This thing is about a cute Yorkshire dog that was stolen from a Tesla, and the gamble is on Musk's response.
If Musk responds, then it will be really amazing. Currently, there is this expectation.

Today's Information Gap:

1. The cow is gone! ETF selling on Monday? $btc dropped to $92,800, $sol dropped to $144, $bnb dropped to $597, only down 2%

2. Don't panic! Bitcoin may hit a new high in May! Last week's ETF net inflow was $3.1 billion, a record high, decoupling from the S&P, liquidation sweep, institutions are bullish

3. Letsbonk fun is going crazy! Frequently breaking out gold dogs, $Hosico cat meme skyrocketed to 33m, peaking at 1000 times, $BRAWL 405 times, $NOM 75 times, $SALT 63 times

4. $PENGU penguin also exploded! Tripled in a week, today up another 30%, Luca predicts something big is coming, the community is starting to hype the ETF documents.

Analysis of Opportunities in the Altcoin Market: In terms of altcoins, the following assets show long opportunities on the 4-hour level:
·ENA: The ideal entry point is in the range of $0.32 to $0.33, demonstrating a good rhythm.
·STX: Achieved decent gains last week; if it retraces to the vacuum area between $0.75 and $0.80, it can be considered for long again.
·SUI: Despite a large unlock this week, the price performance remains strong, suggesting any negatives may have been priced in. The strong support is in the range of $3.35 to $3.40, making it a good long entry, showcasing the characteristic of 'the strong getting stronger.'
·TAO: If it retraces to the downward trend line around $340, it can be considered for a long position.
·ONDO: The current price is close to the vacuum area between $0.88 and $0.90, making it an ideal long entry point.
·AXS: The current cycle in the blockchain gaming sector has been lackluster, but there have been multiple strong supports at $2.40; if it touches this level again, it can be considered for a short-term long.
·TRUMP: Although the fundamentals are not promising, there is potential for short-term swings. $12 serves as a strong support for the midline, and around $13.50, one could consider taking a risky short long.

Alpacas should be a textbook for a dog farm. One can roughly guess the intention of the alpaca dog farm. If it is eventually delisted, selling alpacas on the spot should not make any money.
It's far better to control the alpaca price strongly on the 30th to hold it down, and then deliver it at the futures price platform and walk away.
Then, from the 30th to before May 2nd, one can crash the price and walk away to take some residual value.

During this period, if the counterparty is insufficient before the 30th, one can crash the price to attract people to short and let them bet on a collapse.
Short enough and then pull it up to control the contract for delisting and delivery.

In the past week (2025w16), BTC suddenly surged, breaking away from the 85k horizontal level, with a cumulative increase of 1000 dollars, rising to the 95k level. The week opened at 88.5k, peaked at 95.7k, and hit a low of 88.5k, with Saturday's closing at 94.4k, resulting in a weekly increase of about 6.67%.

Today, BTC continues to fluctuate around 94k, and a few days of upward movement followed by a spike in contracts is normal.

Currently, the core focus opportunities are:

1. Meme coin rebound: Trump leads the way, with pengu, bonk, turbo, and pnut following.

2. AI sector rebound: ai16z, aixbt, virtual, turbo, and other oversold rebounds, with weekly increases covering the declines of March.

3. Solana chain hotspots: house (real estate hedging project) FDV soared to over 55M. BONK's new platform lestbonk FDV fell from 30M to 10M, be wary of short-term FOMO risks.

4. CEX operations: alpaca has taught everyone what real trading is, using a contract fee rate of negative 2% for 1 hour to drive spot prices, forcing a short squeeze.

5. BONK's new meme platform lestbonk: after its launch, FDV skyrocketed to around 30M, currently less than 10M; if there's short-term FOMO, remember to take profits.
6. The two fastest-growing sectors in Web3: RWA and PayFi; we are heavily invested in these two directions.

Current Core Highlights:
1. Meme Coin Rebound: $Trump leads the charge, with $pengu, $bonk, $turbo, and $pnut following suit.

2. AI Sector Rebound: $ai16z, $aixbt, and other severely oversold assets rebound, with weekly gains covering March's losses.

3. Solana Chain Hotspots;
$house (real estate hedging project) FDV skyrocketed to 55M+. BONK's new platform #lestbonk FDV fell from 30M to 10M, beware of short-term FOMO risks.

4. Stablecoin Growth; USDT (14.7 billion) and USDC (62 billion) market caps continue to rise, indicating capital inflow.
CEX Operations: $alpaca uses a contract fee rate of -2% for one hour to drive up spot prices, squeezing shorts.

Recently, animal narratives have been played less,

Currently, most of those willing to pay for this type of narrative in the market are P players.

Moreover, it is very easy for big influencers to manipulate the situation, with two plates in PvP; whichever one they buy, that is the real situation.

And most of the time, if you encounter a big influencer of the P general type,

their approach is mostly:

Clean out one plate completely, then go to the other plate,

and take another round.

If you are going to follow this, all I can say is: good luck.

Not long ago, the market was very poor, and many people I know have left the circle due to huge losses, and they haven't returned since. In the past few days, I've tried to reach out to them, but they are unwilling to discuss the crypto world anymore; they must be completely disappointed.

In fact, everyone is losing money, so it is unnecessary to leave the circle because of it. Ordinary people should engage in real businesses or work; there is no way to make money as quickly as in this circle. If you can't survive here, can you really make money in another industry? Which industry doesn't experience downturns? Which one doesn't have its own bear market?

The reasons for leaving the circle boil down to two:
1. Unable to accept their own failure, pessimistic.
2. Disagreeing with this blockchain circle, seeing it as a scam.

Looking back in six months, there won't be many opportunities like this.
Just think, most people left the circle because of how low the coin prices were and how poor the market was. It was a goldmine, but you chose to turn a blind eye, and then six months later, you see it has risen tenfold.

The secondary market is gradually warming up. After BTC and ETH stabilize, the altcoins are set to follow. Pay more attention to the recent popular sectors; today AI has started to show movement. Subsequent sectors will rotate, so it may be worth considering following up. Altcoins have been quiet for too long, and the market is about to come soon.

Today's $House major trading is mainly centered around the nihilistic meme coin Fartcoin.
The price of $House is currently too high for me, so I will choose $Titcoin.
Why I would choose tit among several tokens related to $fartocin
Because $titcoin has consistently performed well in previous trading, whether in candlestick charts or holding addresses.
So I prefer $titcoin, currently holding a 10s position.
I believe $titcoin should reach new highs.

Those who are too rigid are easily broken, while those who are flexible cannot be defeated

1. BTC experienced a short squeeze of nearly 300 million U on April 22, marking the largest single-day short squeeze since the bull market began

2. If BTC continues to rise without a correction, it will be clearing out shorts in preparation for further declines; it may seem very aggressive, but in reality, the trend won't last long

3. If BTC actively adjusts and consolidates over the next week or two, sufficiently exchanging hands and locking in positions, it is expected to initiate a new round of bullish trend

The announcement from ZKSync regarding the hacking incident boldly states, 'Matter Labs, which is currently ZKsync Era chain’s sole sequencer,' meaning that a chain claiming to be one of the 'Four Kings of L2,' ZKSync, actually has only one sequencer, which is its own. It's hard to imagine what it means for a public chain to have only one node.
🤣
This is not an isolated case; almost all L2 nodes are held in their own hands. Sometimes I really feel that the crypto industry has double standards. They constantly criticize BSC and Solana for their data center downtimes, while at least they have dozens or even hundreds of nodes. Yet they keep praising Ethereum for its decentralization with tens of thousands of nodes, while a bunch of completely 100% centralized L2s with only one node have sprouted up. It's too distorted.