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公众号《土豆谈币》：在币圈近十年从业者，三年职业交易员经验。历经两轮牛熊，自有投研团队，顶级一二级资源，擅长各种现货均线理论分析操作，以及短线合约策略入场布局！
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Pepe's 30-day crazy run! The stock price has risen by more than 100%, but is the bull market coming to an end? Where will the stock price go in the future?
PEPE has been rising for a while, setting new highs. At the same time, a whale bought billions of PEPE.
Does this indicate that the memecoin is ready to continue its massive bull rally?
PEPE hits new high
Investors have made handsome profits over the past month as the price of meme coins has surged. In fact, the rally has taken meme coins to new all-time highs.
According to CoinMarketCap, PEPE has risen by more than 100% in the past 30 days. Thanks to this, more than 97% of PEPE investors have achieved profits, according to IntoTheBlock.
Does this indicate that the memecoin is ready to continue its massive bull rally?
PEPE hits new high
Investors have made handsome profits over the past month as the price of meme coins has surged. In fact, the rally has taken meme coins to new all-time highs.
According to CoinMarketCap, PEPE has risen by more than 100% in the past 30 days. Thanks to this, more than 97% of PEPE investors have achieved profits, according to IntoTheBlock.
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What are the reasons for the market decline? Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted as expected! The 'Golden Pit' was blasted by a giant whale dumping 108 million, and ETH is increasingly being bought as it falls! Looking ahead to next week's script!
Last night, the entire market plummeted rapidly, with Ethereum dropping directly from 3600 to 3431, and Bitcoin also failing to hold above 150,000. The main reasons are that the previously released positive data was suddenly violently corrected by the authorities, and secondly, Binance and Coinbase dumped their holdings!
I don’t think this is the beginning of a bear market; it actually favors interest rate cuts, and the impact is temporary!
Even if the data has 'adjustments' or even 'manipulation' suspicions, it is unlikely to trigger systemic risks, after all, the US has not yet experienced a financial crisis-level chain reaction. Moreover, Trump's 'tariff + tax cuts' combo has just started to stimulate the short term. If the Federal Reserve sees weak data, it may be more likely to accelerate interest rate cuts. In such a macro background, the market still has structural support.
I don’t think this is the beginning of a bear market; it actually favors interest rate cuts, and the impact is temporary!
Even if the data has 'adjustments' or even 'manipulation' suspicions, it is unlikely to trigger systemic risks, after all, the US has not yet experienced a financial crisis-level chain reaction. Moreover, Trump's 'tariff + tax cuts' combo has just started to stimulate the short term. If the Federal Reserve sees weak data, it may be more likely to accelerate interest rate cuts. In such a macro background, the market still has structural support.
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The secondary market is temporarily at a standstill, let's emmm together, have you emmm'd today?
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August 1 Analysis: Trump's 'Tax Master' Causes Crypto Market Crash! Bitcoin and Ethereum Monthly Lines Close Down, Major Liquidation Begins? Altcoins Head to Zero! Plummeting into the Golden Dog, Let's Go!
On the first day of August, mainstream coins BTC and ETH closed with a downward spike on the monthly line, and the crypto market welcomed an opening 'red'! The significant reason for this drop: Trump once again became the 'tax master'.
Related measures: The US stock market is down across the board, affecting the crypto market. Ongoing tax increases in the US are causing market panic. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $114.69 million yesterday, combined with Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks cooling down rate cut expectations. How should we grasp the market in the future? Let's take a look together!
Today's hot opportunity:
1. Non-farm payroll data from the US tonight at 20:30, previous value 14.7, forecast 11; unemployment rate previous value 4.1%, forecast 4.2%. Data until September will determine the interest rate cut, requiring close attention.
Related measures: The US stock market is down across the board, affecting the crypto market. Ongoing tax increases in the US are causing market panic. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $114.69 million yesterday, combined with Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks cooling down rate cut expectations. How should we grasp the market in the future? Let's take a look together!
Today's hot opportunity:
1. Non-farm payroll data from the US tonight at 20:30, previous value 14.7, forecast 11; unemployment rate previous value 4.1%, forecast 4.2%. Data until September will determine the interest rate cut, requiring close attention.
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Last night's divergence between spot and futures indeed had some effect, with prices once again breaking lower to a new minor low. What happened behind the scenes is that Trump has once again taken on the role of 'Tax King'...
However, as the pullback unfolds, the spot premium has once again shown a bottom divergence, releasing short-term risks...
The market over the last three weeks still looks like a descending wedge, so it can be considered a sideways market. There should be a demand for a rebound in the short term, but there is still no trending direction in the long term. Let's continue to wait~
#比特币走势分析
However, as the pullback unfolds, the spot premium has once again shown a bottom divergence, releasing short-term risks...
The market over the last three weeks still looks like a descending wedge, so it can be considered a sideways market. There should be a demand for a rebound in the short term, but there is still no trending direction in the long term. Let's continue to wait~
#比特币走势分析
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Non-farm payrolls tonight, if it can't close up, it will consolidate over the weekend, and continue to look bearish next week. The foundation is really sick, selling again. The market will punish every diamond hand and every person who is reluctant to cut losses. Altcoins are all hitting new lows, rises are just small pumps, and drops are big bearish candles. All altcoins except for the leaders will go to zero.
#加密市场回调
#加密市场回调
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Coinbase Brings Down the Crypto Circle
1. Coinbase's second-quarter report did not meet expectations, plummeting 8% after hours.
2. BTC fell below 116,500 yesterday for the first time but could not recover, which is a very dangerous signal for the short-term market and indicates that the long-standing balance between bulls and bears has been broken, leaning towards a bearish trend. If BTC cannot return to 118,000, it will further deepen the correction.
3. The medium to long-term trend of ETH remains very healthy, and in the short term, it will also follow BTC's correction.
1. Coinbase's second-quarter report did not meet expectations, plummeting 8% after hours.
2. BTC fell below 116,500 yesterday for the first time but could not recover, which is a very dangerous signal for the short-term market and indicates that the long-standing balance between bulls and bears has been broken, leaning towards a bearish trend. If BTC cannot return to 118,000, it will further deepen the correction.
3. The medium to long-term trend of ETH remains very healthy, and in the short term, it will also follow BTC's correction.
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August's Big Market! Bitcoin and Ethereum Plummet and Rebound! Is the washout over? Altcoins are gearing up for the next round of surges! September's non-rate cut won't stop the bull market from taking off?
Last night, Powell's speech was tough, not signaling a rate cut in September, ignoring Trump's pressure, showcasing a stubborn side. Although it was negative news, Bitcoin briefly dipped before stopping, indicating that market buying and confidence are still present.
BTC
Bitcoin is influenced by news, and the short-term bullish trend has been established, but the market always keeps people guessing. The big players are not foolish; they won't let you make a consistent profit. Remember, this is all a washout; the key is to maintain a good mindset. Don't worry about indicators; focus on defense and follow the trend.
It is important to note that an effective breakthrough of the upper channel is needed for further rises. If it breaks through, in August it could rise to the mid-channel of around $127,000. If it cannot break through and is constrained by the channel, there is a high probability that it will fluctuate downwards in early August.
BTC
Bitcoin is influenced by news, and the short-term bullish trend has been established, but the market always keeps people guessing. The big players are not foolish; they won't let you make a consistent profit. Remember, this is all a washout; the key is to maintain a good mindset. Don't worry about indicators; focus on defense and follow the trend.
It is important to note that an effective breakthrough of the upper channel is needed for further rises. If it breaks through, in August it could rise to the mid-channel of around $127,000. If it cannot break through and is constrained by the channel, there is a high probability that it will fluctuate downwards in early August.
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ETH's current performance is definitely stronger. However, holding BTC offers higher safety and certainty.
Do not touch other mainstream or altcoins; their fatigue is evident at this stage.
Wait for BTC's consolidation to finish to capture a segment of relative gains, probably between 12.15 - 12.3. By then, I will try to short a few weaker mainstream coins as an experiment.
#币圈现状
Do not touch other mainstream or altcoins; their fatigue is evident at this stage.
Wait for BTC's consolidation to finish to capture a segment of relative gains, probably between 12.15 - 12.3. By then, I will try to short a few weaker mainstream coins as an experiment.
#币圈现状
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Welcome to Crazy August
1. Last night, there were no surprises with the interest rates, but the main players executed a wild pin bar, causing dramatic spikes in the US stock market, cryptocurrency market, and gold, with prices remaining unchanged. Many people's positions were wiped out.
2. After last night's pin bar, a bullish trend is set to start, with the key indicators being BTC effectively breaking through 120,000 and ETH standing above 4,000. Once these levels are breached, a rapid rise will follow.
3. The Nasdaq futures have already set a new historical high, showing signs of accelerated growth.
#美联储利率决议
1. Last night, there were no surprises with the interest rates, but the main players executed a wild pin bar, causing dramatic spikes in the US stock market, cryptocurrency market, and gold, with prices remaining unchanged. Many people's positions were wiped out.
2. After last night's pin bar, a bullish trend is set to start, with the key indicators being BTC effectively breaking through 120,000 and ETH standing above 4,000. Once these levels are breached, a rapid rise will follow.
3. The Nasdaq futures have already set a new historical high, showing signs of accelerated growth.
#美联储利率决议
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Epic turning point tonight! Bitcoin, Ethereum dead cat bounce, will it surge after a trap? Where is the golden pit in this round of ten thousand points bull market?
Recently, the price drop has narrowed. Last night, there was a rapid short-term drop that broke the lower point of the wedge channel. Currently, it is at the edge of the trend line, and it is possible that this is a trap. Do not blindly short in the short term: data-intensive periods are on Thursday and Friday, and today is the last day of volatility.
Today's hot opportunities:
1. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM tonight; the market expects no rate cut. Pay attention to the statements and voting on rate cuts to assess the expectations for a rate cut in September. PS: The Federal Reserve may need to cut rates in the future, but is not prepared for it this week.
2.Upbit launched Omni, and the price directly surged 3 times, with significant effects from the Korean market.
Today's hot opportunities:
1. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM tonight; the market expects no rate cut. Pay attention to the statements and voting on rate cuts to assess the expectations for a rate cut in September. PS: The Federal Reserve may need to cut rates in the future, but is not prepared for it this week.
2.Upbit launched Omni, and the price directly surged 3 times, with significant effects from the Korean market.
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Although MicroStrategy made a large purchase of Bitcoin, it failed to drive the price of Bitcoin up, and instead continued to consolidate sideways, indicating that the selling pressure for Bitcoin is also quite strong.
After a half-month period of sideways consolidation, the daily Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin have narrowed significantly, which usually indicates that a major price movement is about to occur. Considering that selling pressure has been dominant over the past half month, the likelihood of a downward price movement is high.
A similar situation occurred in late February this year.
#ETH重返3800
After a half-month period of sideways consolidation, the daily Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin have narrowed significantly, which usually indicates that a major price movement is about to occur. Considering that selling pressure has been dominant over the past half month, the likelihood of a downward price movement is high.
A similar situation occurred in late February this year.
#ETH重返3800
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In the short term, BTC has been consolidating for about 17 days, and I believe the range of 123300-113000 is a continuation of an upward trend. After it digests the 80,000 sell-off, it will inevitably launch a new round of upward movement. Personally, I am optimistic that BTC will target 135000 in August. If it recently adjusts to the range of 113800-112400, it is directly a bottom-fishing zone for contracts, and there is no need for excessive concern; deeper adjustments are unlikely to occur.
In the long term (within the next 3-4 months), the increase in holdings by long-term holders far exceeds that of miners, and BTC is in a state of supply contraction. Even if there is a lack of volume in the short term, as long as there is a bit of buying pressure, it will rebound quickly. Therefore, even with the recent sell-off of 80,000 BTC, there will not be a deep adjustment, as institutions continue to buy on dips. A significant adjustment will only occur when monetary policy tightens, and institutions are pressured to sell, resulting in a true major correction, i.e., a non-technical bear market.
In the long term (within the next 3-4 months), the increase in holdings by long-term holders far exceeds that of miners, and BTC is in a state of supply contraction. Even if there is a lack of volume in the short term, as long as there is a bit of buying pressure, it will rebound quickly. Therefore, even with the recent sell-off of 80,000 BTC, there will not be a deep adjustment, as institutions continue to buy on dips. A significant adjustment will only occur when monetary policy tightens, and institutions are pressured to sell, resulting in a true major correction, i.e., a non-technical bear market.
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Tonight's callback looks somewhat like a futures bull turnover, first a wave of long positions continuously closing, then attracting a wave of shorts to open positions on the break, followed by another wave of long positions re-entering...
The price has dropped over 1000 dollars, but the positions have already returned quite a bit...
It seems the bulls haven't been completely cleared out...
The price has dropped over 1000 dollars, but the positions have already returned quite a bit...
It seems the bulls haven't been completely cleared out...
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July 29 Analysis: Cause of the Plunge Found! Will Bitcoin and Ethereum Experience a Big Waterfall This Week? $CFX Soars 4238%, $C Doubles! Is the Altcoin Downtrend Over?
Bitcoin reached a high of 119,800 yesterday and a low of 117,427, with a fluctuation of 2,373 points. Ethereum reached a high of 3,941 and a low of 3,754 yesterday, with a fluctuation of 187 points.
Today's hot opportunities:
1. Trump pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week; market reactions show a 100% probability of no change this month, with a possible cut in September.
2. Mill City Ventures III launches Sui asset reserve strategy through a $450 million private placement.
3. Binance launches RWUSD, allowing 1:1 exchange of stablecoins, enjoying an annual yield of 4%+.
4. Plasma public offering ends, with subscriptions of $373 million, oversubscribed by 7 times.
5. Binance HODLer air drops Treehouse (TREE), going live for spot trading on July 29.
Today's hot opportunities:
1. Trump pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week; market reactions show a 100% probability of no change this month, with a possible cut in September.
2. Mill City Ventures III launches Sui asset reserve strategy through a $450 million private placement.
3. Binance launches RWUSD, allowing 1:1 exchange of stablecoins, enjoying an annual yield of 4%+.
4. Plasma public offering ends, with subscriptions of $373 million, oversubscribed by 7 times.
5. Binance HODLer air drops Treehouse (TREE), going live for spot trading on July 29.
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ETH is quite interesting. Recently, it has been rising on Saturdays and Sundays in US time, even though the listed companies are not working. The price of the coin rises during this time, and everyone expects that Wall Street will buy on Monday when they return to work. However, for two consecutive Mondays, the market has been weak. So who is buying on Saturdays and Sundays?
Currently, ETH is at a super strong resistance level. Yesterday, there was a false breakthrough with a shrinking volume, and today it was slammed back down with increased volume, indicating that demand at this position is far below supply. There are still over 600,000 ETH waiting to be released. The false breakthrough has been pushed back, and it is highly likely that we will see a phase adjustment ahead. It is recommended not to be too aggressive. If it returns to the 3300-3400 range, it may be worth considering participating again.
Currently, ETH is at a super strong resistance level. Yesterday, there was a false breakthrough with a shrinking volume, and today it was slammed back down with increased volume, indicating that demand at this position is far below supply. There are still over 600,000 ETH waiting to be released. The false breakthrough has been pushed back, and it is highly likely that we will see a phase adjustment ahead. It is recommended not to be too aggressive. If it returns to the 3300-3400 range, it may be worth considering participating again.
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If there are opportunities recently, take action; if not, take more time to rest.
Adjust your state, and then welcome the market in August with a full spirit and attitude.
If there is a rate cut in September, there will at least be a big wave in August.
#ETH重返3800
Adjust your state, and then welcome the market in August with a full spirit and attitude.
If there is a rate cut in September, there will at least be a big wave in August.
#ETH重返3800
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July 28 Analysis: Bitcoin surged 5000 points! Ethereum 4000, still rising! DOGE made a profit of 748%! Altcoin bull market, which coins to layout for the highest profit?
In the new week, we finally welcomed a wave of ‘explosive’ market movements in the evening. The feeling of rising during the day and in the evening is so exciting. Bitcoin and Ethereum rebound after a sharp decline! Bitcoin surged 5000 points, and Ethereum broke through 3900 USD!
Today's hot opportunity:
1. Vine has increased more than 5 times since Musk mentioned it, with some wash trading in between; investors who did not hold may regret it.
2. ETH broke through 3900 USD, and the DeFi ecosystem's ENA performed strongly, with external funds continuously buying 5 million USD daily for 42 days.
3. The ZORA of the Base ecosystem continues to rise, increasing tenfold from the bottom, with a highest FDV of 1 billion USD.
Today's hot opportunity:
1. Vine has increased more than 5 times since Musk mentioned it, with some wash trading in between; investors who did not hold may regret it.
2. ETH broke through 3900 USD, and the DeFi ecosystem's ENA performed strongly, with external funds continuously buying 5 million USD daily for 42 days.
3. The ZORA of the Base ecosystem continues to rise, increasing tenfold from the bottom, with a highest FDV of 1 billion USD.
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One year anniversary of Ethereum ETF, with cumulative net inflow of nearly 10 billion USD, but the price of ETH is almost the same as a year ago
This means that institutions have completed the acquisition of 10 billion USD worth of ETH from retail investors over the year, without allowing its price to rise, a maneuver by Wall Street capital.
This means that institutions have completed the acquisition of 10 billion USD worth of ETH from retail investors over the year, without allowing its price to rise, a maneuver by Wall Street capital.
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BNB continues to break through 4-year highs, with a market cap of 116.2 billion USD, surpassing Solana to become the fourth largest crypto asset.
Some are optimistic about ETH's value returning, expecting related ETFs to help it reach the top, but there are doubts about the sustainability of speculative trading; others are optimistic about Solana evolving from a high-performance public chain to an 'internet capital market', believing it can attract funds and activate the market, but reform is difficult after class solidification.
I, on the other hand, take a counter-consensus approach — in the past three observations and holdings, many are BSC or BN-related assets. This is not a blind contrarian move, but a conclusion drawn from a deep analysis of fundamentals and price divergence, combined with the evolution of crypto narratives.
Some are optimistic about ETH's value returning, expecting related ETFs to help it reach the top, but there are doubts about the sustainability of speculative trading; others are optimistic about Solana evolving from a high-performance public chain to an 'internet capital market', believing it can attract funds and activate the market, but reform is difficult after class solidification.
I, on the other hand, take a counter-consensus approach — in the past three observations and holdings, many are BSC or BN-related assets. This is not a blind contrarian move, but a conclusion drawn from a deep analysis of fundamentals and price divergence, combined with the evolution of crypto narratives.
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