On the first day of August, mainstream coins BTC and ETH closed with a downward spike on the monthly line, and the crypto market welcomed an opening 'red'! The significant reason for this drop: Trump once again became the 'tax master'.
Related measures: The US stock market is down across the board, affecting the crypto market. Ongoing tax increases in the US are causing market panic. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $114.69 million yesterday, combined with Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks cooling down rate cut expectations. How should we grasp the market in the future? Let's take a look together!
Today's hot opportunity:
1. Non-farm payroll data from the US tonight at 20:30, previous value 14.7, forecast 11; unemployment rate previous value 4.1%, forecast 4.2%. Data until September will determine the interest rate cut, requiring close attention.
2. The Fed dynamics, with nominations to be announced before the end of the year, two seats on the board are vacant. Trump called Powell a terrible chair, saying the appointment was a mistake.
3. The official account of SOL forwarded Moonit, which is backed by a memecoin. After a 40% rise last night, it pulled back with the market, suggesting observation.
4. Base ecosystem, tokens like Clanker, bnkr, dbr have risen recently and are worth attention.
5. JUP trading volume is increasing, and the flow continues to convert, which can be a focus.
6. CEX market retracement, focus on reserve tokens such as BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, DOGE, SUI, SOL, ENA, which may rise first after stabilizing.
BTC
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently under pressure from a downward trend line. The daily chart shows that yesterday's bearish candlestick engulfed the previous day's low, weakening the bullish signal. If today's closing price is below $114,600, the interim rise may fail, or a multiple top structure may form, leading to a drop below the rising trend line to around $110,000.
ETH
Ethereum is facing adjustment pressure after a one-sided rise. On the daily chart, the annual opening price of $3,337 is a short-term support, and $3,820 is a key resistance; if it cannot break through and stay above $3,870, the top divergence signal may trigger a deeper correction, targeting around $3,200.
The hourly level shows that Ethereum may rebound to $3,800, but if it encounters resistance here, it will be an opportunity for high short operations.
Operational strategy:
There are rebound opportunities intraday, but it is recommended to combine with high short strategies. Bitcoin dropped below the low and touched the support of the rising trend line, and there is a possibility of a rebound on the daily chart, but if multiple bullish candles form a bottom divergence on the hourly chart, it may rebound to around $119,400; Ethereum may rebound to around $3,800.
However, if the rebound encounters resistance, it is recommended to short at high points - Bitcoin around $119,400 and Ethereum around $3,800 are shorting points to prevent further market decline.
How to layout in the current market, which coins to bottom fish? Is the risk-reward ratio still reasonable?
Those with funds can gradually buy altcoins at lower prices, focusing on large market cap ones like BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, SUI, SOL, PEPE, PENGU, etc. For retail investors, now is a good time to buy quality targets slowly over about 1-2 weeks, after which the market may enter a rally mode; this can be validated by screenshots.
How should this batch of retail investors operate to avoid being cut out (in a tragic world)?
(1) Strategy: Long BTC, ETH, short altcoins. This is more applicable when the market is generally stable.
Short altcoin logic: Prioritize selecting high market cap, non-leading, weak performing, and low presence coins, diversely shorting and setting stop-loss to prevent explosion.
Logical support: If the second half of the year is bullish, it is likely driven by BTC and ETH; if bearish, altcoins will struggle, while BTC and ETH have institutional buying power to support them.
Possible invalidation: Altcoin season is coming (most outperforming ETH), or ETH fluctuates / leads the decline while altcoins drop less - but based on recent months' experience, the probability is low.
(2) Operation: Binance homepage → New coin launch → Contracts, filter for high market cap, contract-only 'garbage coins', divide the positions and short with low leverage, managing the positions according to hedge fund strategies.
Principle: In the early stage of a new coin launch, there is market-making strength and liquidity, with many people short-term betting on the market; after the market-making period, observe the distribution signal before taking a stop-loss short position.
On-chain
Today I found a high-quality target: $emmm
Bought $emmm worth 3000u, this IP is quite appealing and easy to spread, the name is memorable and easy to trigger. The heat is also slowly rising, feeling very likely to become a big golden dog!
