Last night, Powell's speech was tough, not signaling a rate cut in September, ignoring Trump's pressure, showcasing a stubborn side. Although it was negative news, Bitcoin briefly dipped before stopping, indicating that market buying and confidence are still present.
BTC
Bitcoin is influenced by news, and the short-term bullish trend has been established, but the market always keeps people guessing. The big players are not foolish; they won't let you make a consistent profit. Remember, this is all a washout; the key is to maintain a good mindset. Don't worry about indicators; focus on defense and follow the trend.
It is important to note that an effective breakthrough of the upper channel is needed for further rises. If it breaks through, in August it could rise to the mid-channel of around $127,000. If it cannot break through and is constrained by the channel, there is a high probability that it will fluctuate downwards in early August.
Strategy: From an intraday short-term perspective, pay attention to the resistance at 118500, 119500, 120500; positions can be considered for shorting around these levels; for support below, pay attention to 116500, 115500, 114500; observe opportunities at these levels and consider low buys.
ETH
Yesterday, Ethereum's drop was relatively small, and the trading volume was also low, indicating that the selling pressure is currently relatively weak. If it breaks 3888, about $400 million in short positions will be liquidated. With such a large liquidation amount, it feels like it will be liquidated directly soon. 3888 feels as easy for ETH as drinking water.
From the 4-hour chart, after a Pinbar appears, a bullish engulfing candle forms, indicating that a bottom has formed. Ethereum's daily candle closed with a small hammer bullish candle, showing relatively stronger movement compared to Bitcoin.
Strategy: For the intraday short-term resistance, pay attention to 3870-3900-3950; positions can be considered for shorting around these levels. For support below, pay attention to 3700-3650-3600; pullbacks to these levels are areas to consider for low buys.
Altcoin
Bitcoin and Ethereum both experienced a quick rebound after a brief drop today, while altcoins are still sluggish. Bitcoin's rebound after each drop is quick, appearing quite strong, but there is also significant pressure. If it cannot break new highs, altcoins may enter a fluctuating downward trend.
After the drop, prioritize allocating tokens that are speculated to be spot ETF.
Currently, the tokens that have submitted spot ETF applications are: mainstream altcoins: SOL, XRP, LTC, ADA, AVAX, APT, SUI, MOVE, TRX.
Mainstream MEME coins: DOGE, TRUMP, BONK, PENGU.
The market has the highest expectations for the SOL spot ETF, but the SEC has delayed its approval twice. Regarding the XRP spot ETF, the SEC is currently publicly soliciting public opinions to discuss whether to approve its listing.
Tokens similar to the MicroStrategy investment model include BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, TRX, SOL, HYPE, etc., showing a trend of the strong getting stronger. It is expected that this batch of spot ETFs may be approved集中 between September and October 2025.
Dynamic tokens of interest on-chain.
bonkfun is the only leading one maintaining strength; useless has indeed rebounded, and $Gp can pay attention to the support strength at 3.5. Personally, I think we can pay attention to the JUP platform and pumpfun recently, as there may be artificially driven hot tokens.
$gor is fluctuating in the $2 million range; if it breaks below the support level, the initiation of the market may still need to wait.
$aura has reached a support level; if it breaks below, the support will fail.
$uranus has been added to the observation list.
$memeroom has dropped to around $17 million; if it cannot hold this support, there will be basically no hope left.
$troll is worth watching; it has reached $2 million 4-5 times, indicating that the bullish trend may not be over.
$aol currently lacks cost-effectiveness; it's advised to observe further and keep an eye on its dynamics.
