Last night, the entire market plummeted rapidly, with Ethereum dropping directly from 3600 to 3431, and Bitcoin also failing to hold above 150,000. The main reasons are that the previously released positive data was suddenly violently corrected by the authorities, and secondly, Binance and Coinbase dumped their holdings!
I don’t think this is the beginning of a bear market; it actually favors interest rate cuts, and the impact is temporary!
Even if the data has 'adjustments' or even 'manipulation' suspicions, it is unlikely to trigger systemic risks, after all, the US has not yet experienced a financial crisis-level chain reaction. Moreover, Trump's 'tariff + tax cuts' combo has just started to stimulate the short term. If the Federal Reserve sees weak data, it may be more likely to accelerate interest rate cuts. In such a macro background, the market still has structural support.
In addition, at the same time, Binance and Coinbase sold millions of ETH, likely to clear leverage. Because once the long positions are liquidated, it is highly probable that they will rebuild their positions afterwards.
In summary, no matter how things play out in August, interest rate cuts in September are basically set. However, once a declining trend is formed, it is difficult to reverse in the short term, so it is advisable to hold back and focus on what to do next.
BTC
"Look at profits when rising, look at losses when falling" is the basic method to observe changes in market sentiment using data.
In the past month, BTC has had 3 significant loss-selling events (realized losses):
2025.7.15: After hitting a new high, technical profit-taking resulted in a loss of 149 million dollars;
2025.7.25: The transfer of ancient giant whales raised concerns about selling pressure, resulting in a loss of 116 million dollars;
2025.8.1: Affected by Trump's tariffs, the Federal Reserve's decision, and non-farm data, resulting in a loss of 88 million dollars.
Comparing the visible data, realized losses are not higher when prices are lower. This indicates that BTC investors are becoming increasingly unwilling to sell coins at a loss in response to small-level negative news, and risk aversion sentiment is gradually becoming unaffected by events. Therefore, it is unlikely that BTC will suddenly drop sharply unless larger-level negative news triggers panic (rather than risk aversion).
Today's market analysis: Bitcoin fell below 113,000, creating a new low for the phase, and a bottom divergence signal has appeared in the short term. If you want to buy with a light position, you can consider buying near the current price of 113,970, leaving room for additional purchases, as there will likely be at least one rebound.
ETH
108 million crazy dump! ETH is increasingly being bought as it falls.
Buy more as it falls! ETH micro-strategy SBET spent a total of 108 million dollars in two rounds over the past day, increasing its holdings of ETH through the Galaxy Digital off-exchange platform.
The latest transaction involved an investment of 55.56 million dollars this morning, and ETH was purchased off-exchange. Currently, the two leading ETH micro-strategy styles: BMNR buys as much as possible, while SBET buys on dips.
Today's market analysis: Ethereum fell below 3480, also creating a new low for the phase. Currently, small-level signals of stop-loss are appearing, so buying near the current price of 3520 is advisable, and be sure to set a stop-loss to protect your capital!
Reminder: Institutions are closed over the weekend, creating opportunities for bottom fishing, but it is recommended to operate in batches and be cautious of BTC falling below 110,000. From a long-term perspective, the current round of adjustments is still bullish. The outlook for Bitcoin next week may follow two potential trends:
1. The weekend holds at 112: A rebound of 2-3 days is expected early next week, with a target of 116-117, but the rebound is of a corrective nature, and may then fall back to 110-109. After falling to this range, a 4H bottom divergence may trigger a significant rebound.
2. The weekend continues to decline: There may be a sharp drop early next week, returning to the 100,000-112,000 fluctuation range, with the August low possibly testing 92,000-96,000.
Altcoins
The bottom of altcoins cannot be fully copied; there is volume in the decline but no volume in the rise, like boiling frogs in warm water. Some people say the 15-day bull market has ended! In fact, except for short, fast-paced projects like MEME, most altcoins cannot even recoup their costs in a 15-day cycle.
The 4-hour chart of altcoins shows all declines, and the current benefits for the altcoin market are: interest rate cuts and altcoin ETFs. The core opinion remains unchanged; the market is still mainly 'bearish on rebounds.' Strictly take profits and stop losses, act in accordance with the trend, and avoid chasing highs and selling lows!
