In the short term, BTC has been consolidating for about 17 days, and I believe the range of 123300-113000 is a continuation of an upward trend. After it digests the 80,000 sell-off, it will inevitably launch a new round of upward movement. Personally, I am optimistic that BTC will target 135000 in August. If it recently adjusts to the range of 113800-112400, it is directly a bottom-fishing zone for contracts, and there is no need for excessive concern; deeper adjustments are unlikely to occur.

In the long term (within the next 3-4 months), the increase in holdings by long-term holders far exceeds that of miners, and BTC is in a state of supply contraction. Even if there is a lack of volume in the short term, as long as there is a bit of buying pressure, it will rebound quickly. Therefore, even with the recent sell-off of 80,000 BTC, there will not be a deep adjustment, as institutions continue to buy on dips. A significant adjustment will only occur when monetary policy tightens, and institutions are pressured to sell, resulting in a true major correction, i.e., a non-technical bear market.