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1. Geopolitical Black Swan Tears the Market Apart: Bitcoin's $100,000 Support Line Breached
The U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities triggered a surge in global risk aversion, causing Bitcoin to fall below the psychological threshold of $100,000, with over $1.7 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours. In this 'liquidity + sentiment' double whammy, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $100,866, marking a two-week low. However, on-chain data shows that whales are buying against the trend: an average of 72,000 BTC per day transferred from exchanges to cold wallets in the past 30 days, with a locking rate of 9.43%. This suggests that institutions and long-term holders view $100,000 as a 'value anchor,' attempting to pick up bloodied chips in the panic.

I. Bitcoin: $103k 'Iron Defense Line' Resonating with Policy Tailwind

In the early hours today, Bitcoin's price fluctuated around $104,600 with a narrow range, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands width shrank to 1.2%, reaching a new monthly low, and the technicals exhibited a triangle convergence pattern. The key support level of $103,100-$103,400 has endured four bearish attacks; on-chain monitoring shows that sovereign funds (like El Salvador) and corporate capital (like Semler Scientific) have cumulatively invested over 500 BTC buy orders in this range, forming a 'bottom consensus'. If it breaks through the $105,300 bearish stronghold (where the order book has accumulated $43.66 million in sell orders), a short squeeze may trigger $180 million in buy orders, aiming for $106,250.

Macroeconomic Storm: The Federal Reserve's 'hawkish pause' and the crypto market's contrasting extremes.
In the early hours of today, the Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot shows a significant reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 to 25 basis points, completely disappointing the market's anticipated 'dovish turn'. This 'hawkish pause' has led to widespread pressure on risk assets, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below the support level of $103,000, and over $1.5 billion in liquidations across the network within 24 hours, resulting in heavy losses for bulls. However, beneath the surface, undercurrents are stirring: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $412 million in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $267 million, signaling that institutional funds are buying against the trend.

One, Market Tremors Before the Federal Reserve Decision: The Bull-Bear Battle of BTC and ETH
Today is June 18, 2025, and the cryptocurrency market is experiencing severe fluctuations ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $104,600, with a 24-hour drop of 1.2%, while Ethereum (ETH) has fallen below the $2,500 mark, down 2.3%. Technical analysis shows that BTC has three consecutive daily declines but is still holding above the 20-day moving average ($102,800), and ETH's RSI indicator has entered the oversold area, indicating short-term rebound demand.
Key Driving Factors:
Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but the 'hawkish adjustment' in the dot plot for the rate cut path (with the 2025 rate cut expectation reduced from 50 basis points to 25 basis points) has become a trigger for suppressing risk assets.

Market Dynamics: Bitcoin 'Dancing in the Fire,' Ethereum 'Technological Revolution Gaining Momentum'
Early this morning, Bitcoin fluctuated above the critical support level of $104,000. The escalation of missile conflict in the Middle East and the upcoming FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve form a 'double squeeze,' with the market volatility index (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) remaining in the 'fear' zone for three consecutive days. Ethereum, on the other hand, has stood firm at the $2,500 mark due to the positive news from the successful deployment of the Pectra hard fork testnet. On-chain data shows institutional funds have net inflows into Ethereum ETFs for four consecutive weeks, totaling over $800 million.

Macroeconomic Game: With CPI data confirmed, can Bitcoin's 'bull hoof' stand firm?
The U.S. May CPI data released early this morning showed an unadjusted annual rate of 3.2% (higher than the expected 2.5%), with core inflation year-on-year at 3.5%, far exceeding the Fed's target. This data reinforced expectations of 'long-term high interest rates', causing the dollar index to soar in the short term, while Bitcoin's price briefly fell below the critical support level of $108,000 before quickly rebounding.
From an economic perspective, the game of inflation stickiness and expectations for a shift in monetary policy has dominated short-term market sentiment. Despite high inflation suppressing risk asset valuations, Bitcoin has shown resilience—on-chain data shows that whale addresses (holding 10-10,000 BTC) have recently increased their holdings by over 80,000 BTC, and the trend of net outflows from spot ETFs has ended, with long-term allocation demand heating up. If Bitcoin can hold above $105,000 and break the resistance level of $112,000, a new wave of altcoin rallies may follow.

1. Market Frenzy: Bitcoin is back, and institutions are extremely eager.
Bitcoin has once again crossed the $110,000 mark after two weeks, just one step away from its historical high. The core driving forces for this round of explosion are three:
Policy Dividend: The Trump administration plans to establish a 'National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' and promote the adoption of fair value accounting standards by companies, while sovereign funds (like Saudi PIF) accelerate their entry.
ETF Syphon Effect: The net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected to exceed $70 billion this year, and if Ethereum ETFs are approved, it will add further fuel.

I. Bitcoin (BTC): Institutional disagreements intensify, the $110,000 level becomes the lifeline for bulls and bears
Today's Bitcoin price is fluctuating in the range of $105,000-$110,000. On-chain data shows that selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) is rising. Although 74% of the circulating supply is locked, the net outflow from exchanges has decreased by 32%, suggesting that some 'coin hoarders' are starting to take profits. However, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has seen assets under management exceed $70 billion, with capital inflows for 34 consecutive days, forming a game pattern of 'institutional support' and 'retail selling pressure'.

Summary
In the past 48 hours, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $107k and $109k, but capital continues to pour into spot ETFs; Ethereum breaks a three-month high and secures substantial DeFi loans; BNB approaches $700 boosted by the SEC's active dismissal of the lawsuit; Solana's TVL surges 54%, but faces short-term pressure due to the meme coin retreat; the meme coin wars of PEPE, WIF, etc., are heating up, with large investors placing $3 million in short positions. Macro-wise, the U.S. political and business circles raise the banner of 'de-regulation', coupled with rising global trade frictions, making digital assets once again a dual stage for hedging and speculation. This article dissects the driving factors behind the heat from the perspectives of behavioral finance's 'herd effect', liquidity preference theory, and game theory, helping average investors retain rationality amidst the emotional vortex. 🚀

🚀Quick overview of key points

Bitcoin reached a high of ≈$110,000 under the triple catalysis of "Fed's rate cut bet + whales adding positions + policy warming wind"; Ethereum's volatility intensified due to the game with "Hyperliquid short whales" due to the imminent implementation of EIP-4844; BNB market focus returned to quarterly destruction and on-chain application expansion; Solana rewarded all priority fees to validators through upgrades, and on-chain activity and DePIN narratives heated up rapidly; meme coins such as PEPE and WIF became "popularity thermometers" driven by social media popularity and capital flows. Overall, the increase in the β value of risky assets and the network effect (Metcalfe's law) accelerated the amplification of the market, but high volatility also reminded the importance of position management. 🪙🔥

On the morning of May 26, 2025, the entire crypto market is in a resonance zone of "double high pressure" - high capital inflow and high technology iteration: Bitcoin ETF has attracted more than $3.6 billion in a single month and driven BTC to $107,000. Ethereum's Pectra upgrade has "doubled" the L2 capacity as soon as it landed. BNB is approaching its historical high again with ecological expansion and regulatory benefits. Solana is pushing privacy and speed to "extreme racing" with Accelerate 2025. At the same time, PEPE on the meme track has once again exceeded the $5 billion market value, and Hyperliquid's previous 5× short-selling whale suffered a $23.5 million liquidation, which has become emotional fuel. The following seven points are used to dismantle today's market and the economic logic behind it.

🔥 Summary
On May 22, Bitcoin broke the historical high of $110,804, Ethereum bulls are betting heavily on options for $6,000, BNB broke through $650 under 'Maxwell hard fork' expectations, Solana DeFi locked up over $9 billion, driving spot rebounds, while former President Trump personally hosted a dinner for TRUMP meme coin whale investors, igniting emotions to the extreme. This article dissects this 'crypto chaos' from network effects, liquidity cycles, to policy games, helping ordinary investors find balance between frenzy and risk.

In May 2025, the global cryptocurrency market welcomes a new wave of enthusiasm. Bitcoin (BTC) breaks historical highs, Solana (SOL) rebounds strongly, and the meme coin craze resurfaces. This article will analyze the current market trends from an economic perspective to help ordinary investors seize opportunities and avoid risks.
📈 Bitcoin (BTC): Breaks $100,000, aiming for $200,000?
As of May 21, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000, reaching approximately $105,000, up 12% from the 'realized price' of $93,266, reflecting the market's strong profitability. Former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci predicts that Bitcoin will reach $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025, benefiting from increased global adoption and rising ETF demand. Additionally, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has changed his stance, allowing clients to purchase Bitcoin, marking an increase in traditional financial institutions' acceptance of cryptocurrencies. (CoinDesk, The Australian, Time)

How can retail investors seize this wave of 'digital gold rush'? Exclusive interpretation of on-chain data and economic laws
One, Bitcoin breaks historical high: A value fortress under the massive liquidity wave
“$107,000 is not the end, but the starting point of a new cycle” — Last night (May 19), Bitcoin's epic breakthrough completely ignited market sentiment. Although it retraced to $103,600 during the day, the total M2 of G4 countries broke the historical high of $937 billion, injecting a strong stimulant into crypto assets. From an economic perspective, Bitcoin has a rolling 24-month correlation coefficient of 0.79 with global liquidity, which means ‘when the central bank's printing press roars, it is the time when digital gold shines’.”

In the 5.15 market, funds continue to flow into Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum is counting down to the Pectra upgrade, BNB chain activity is surging, and Solana's Firedancer client is quietly igniting; meanwhile, PEPE and WIF meme coins have become outlets for retail investor sentiment. On the macro level, US April CPI has dropped to 2.3%, the Federal Reserve remains inactive, and liquidity preference has elevated risk asset valuations. In the intertwining of long and short positions, ordinary investors must understand the long-term 'exponential dividend' brought by network effects while being wary of the vulnerabilities exposed by Hyperliquid whales leveraging short positions.

Today is May 14, 2025. The cryptocurrency market has rebounded strongly after a brief period of fluctuation. Bitcoin has stabilized above $104,000, Ethereum has broken through $2,600, and major coins like Solana and BNB are rising in sync, with the Meme coin sector seeing a surge of 'meme coins'. As an ordinary investor, how can you capture the core logic of this round of market? This article will analyze the current market trends and opportunities from three dimensions: macroeconomics, technological upgrades, and capital flows.
1. Macro Positive: Cooling inflation ignites 'crypto aphrodisiac'
In the U.S., the year-on-year CPI growth rate in April fell to 2.3%, below market expectations, raising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 78%. This signal directly stimulates the preference for risk assets, with Bitcoin as 'digital gold' resonating with U.S. tech stocks, leading to a rapid flow of funds from the bond market to the crypto space.

One, Bitcoin's $100,000 defense battle: CPI data becomes a critical turning point.
The violent spike in the early morning caused Bitcoin to instantly break through the $103,000 mark, but the quick recovery of the $102,500 support level confirms market consensus—$100,000 is not just a psychological barrier but also a strategic fortress for institutional funds.
The current technical picture presents two contradictory signals: Daily TD sequence green 9 bearish pattern versus weekly Bollinger Bands continuous expansion. Fed Chairman Powell's speech at 22:00 tonight could become the trigger to break the deadlock. If he signals "controlled inflation", Bitcoin may surge to challenge the previous high of $105,800; conversely, a drop below the $100,800 "death line" will trigger panic selling.

1️⃣ Macro trigger: sentiment to 'end American exceptionalism' + US-UK trade agreement
After Trump announced 'Liberation Day tariffs' in early May, global capital continued to withdraw from dollar assets, seeking 'politically neutral' stores of value, with Bitcoin being the biggest beneficiary. In just three weeks, digital asset funds saw an influx of $5.5 billion, with $1.8 billion flowing into BTC products.
Last weekend, the US and UK reached their first trade agreement, and market expectations for tariff negotiations eased, boosting risk sentiment and pushing BTC to break the psychological barrier of $100,000.

I. Bitcoin (BTC): The Three Major Engines Behind the Historical New Highs
'$100,000 is just the starting point!'
Currently, Bitcoin firmly stands above $103,000, consolidating over the weekend, market expectations for it to hit $120,000 continue to heat up. The core logic driving this round of market is threefold:
Policy Tailwind: The US Treasury pauses the sale of 214,000 BTC reserves, the Trump administration plans to build a 'dollar-bitcoin dual anchor system', Bitcoin is first given 'strategic asset' attributes.
Institutional Buying: Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and others see net inflows exceeding $740 million in a single day, with holdings surpassing 614,000 BTC, miners' daily selling volume only 200-300 BTC, supply-demand imbalance intensifies.

Today is May 10, 2025, Saturday. The crypto market is staging a game of ice and fire: Bitcoin is poised to break through the $100,000 mark to hit a new historical high, while Ethereum has surged 14% in a single day, igniting bull market sentiment. The frenzy surrounding Trump-themed coins has plunged the market into a whirlpool of 'politics + speculation.' As an economist deeply engaged in the crypto field, I will analyze the opportunities and traps hidden beneath this wealth feast from the perspectives of macro policy, technical signals, and on-chain games.
1. Market Focus: The 'Offensive and Defensive Way' of $100,000 Bitcoin.
The current Bitcoin price is $103,000, just a step away from its historical high. From a technical perspective, the MACD golden cross is emerging on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI has pulled back to the neutral area at 60, easing overbought pressure. On-chain data shows that institutions have accumulated over 1.13 million BTC through ETFs, and the net outflow from exchanges surged by 12,000 BTC in a single day, indicating that chips are accelerating towards long-term holders. If tonight's U.S. CPI data is lower than expected, a breakthrough above $105,000 could open the path to $110,000.