How can retail investors seize this wave of 'digital gold rush'? Exclusive interpretation of on-chain data and economic laws
One, Bitcoin breaks historical high: A value fortress under the massive liquidity wave
“$107,000 is not the end, but the starting point of a new cycle” — Last night (May 19), Bitcoin's epic breakthrough completely ignited market sentiment. Although it retraced to $103,600 during the day, the total M2 of G4 countries broke the historical high of $937 billion, injecting a strong stimulant into crypto assets. From an economic perspective, Bitcoin has a rolling 24-month correlation coefficient of 0.79 with global liquidity, which means ‘when the central bank's printing press roars, it is the time when digital gold shines’.”
Key Signals:
Institutional holdings surge: BlackRock, Fidelity, and other traditional asset management giants have a holding ratio of 45%; Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day inflow record of $1.6 billion;
Safe-haven attributes stand out: Under geopolitical tensions and US stock volatility, Bitcoin shows significant decoupling signs from traditional assets; the V-shaped rebound from $75,000 to $90,000 verifies its resilience;
On-chain data warning: The severe volatility that caused the liquidation of 140,000 people warns of short-term risks, but the ‘U-shaped bottom + volume breakout’ technical pattern indicates a mid-term upward trend.
Retail Investor Strategy:
“During the liquidity expansion cycle, Bitcoin is the best weapon for retail investors to combat inflation. It is recommended to allocate no less than 30% of personal investment portfolios, using a dollar-cost averaging + buy on dips strategy, and to avoid high-leverage operations.”
Two, Countdown to Ethereum’s ‘Return of the King’: Dual-Driven by Technological Upgrades and Ecological Explosions
Ethereum's price soared from $1500 to $2600, a 40% increase driven by the resonance of the Pectra upgrade and DeFi 2.0. Technical analysis shows that the ETH/BTC exchange rate is approaching the key resistance level of 0.03; if broken, it will open up a valuation space of $5000.
Core Driver:
Technological Revolution: The Pectra upgrade reduces gas fees by 80%, Layer 2 ecosystem TVL exceeds $50 billion, and the user experience revolution attracts millions of new users;
Institutional Endorsement: Nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $54.33 million in a single day, with Fidelity holding over 460,000 ETH, accelerating the entry of traditional finance;
Web3 Narrative: The integration of AI and blockchain gives rise to decentralized computing protocols like Fetch.ai, with Ethereum becoming the core infrastructure of the ‘value internet’.
Risk Warning:
In the short term, beware of the ‘leverage liquidation wave’; the lesson from the May 17 crash of 27% is still fresh. It is recommended for holders to participate in staking (annualized 5.8%) to hedge against volatility and to pay attention to the progress of the EIP-4844 upgrade.
Three, Binance Coin (BNB) undercurrents: Capital game between spot accumulation vs futures shorting
“The positive news of ‘Binance maintaining over 100% reserve ratio for 30 consecutive months’ cannot hide market divergences — spot investors are frantically accumulating (weekly net outflow of $31.28 million), while futures giants are quietly positioning for shorts (Taker sell ratio 0.955).
Economic Interpretation:
Platform Coin Value Model: The BNB burn mechanism (over 100 million burned) and ecological expansion (a 34% drop in contract deployment on the Solana chain) form a deflationary spiral;
Regulatory arbitrage opportunities: The Trump administration plans to lift the ban on crypto banking, which may benefit leading CEXs significantly;
Behavioral finance traps: The community's heated discussion of the 'Fidelity control theory' is actually an anchoring effect, and one should be wary of news manipulation.
Operational Suggestions:
“BNB may test the $600 support level in the short term, but the three-year target looks towards $1200 (benchmarking Coinbase's market cap). It is recommended to use grid trading to accumulate positions in the $550-$700 range.”
Four, Solana (SOL) and Meme Coins: A ‘crypto carnival party’ with high risk and high returns
“Solana ecosystem's daily transaction volume exceeds 100 million, meme coins surged 293% in a week” — This is the golden age for adventurers.
Decoding the Wealth Code:
Solana's technological dividend: 65,000 TPS crushes Ethereum, the RWA (real estate tokenization) track may ignite the next round of growth;
Meme Coin Frenzy Logic:
PEPE (Frog Totem + Musk Effect)
WIF (Solana Ecosystem + Community Splitting)
XYZVerse (Sports IP + AI Generation) presale oversubscribed by 150%;
Behavioral Economics Warning: 97% of the meme coin's increase is driven by FOMO sentiment; beware of the zero-risk of ‘shitcoin projects’.
Survival Rule:
“Investing in meme coins follows the principle of ‘5% position + take profit and stop loss’. Focus on the number of active addresses on-chain (real-time monitoring by Dune Analytics) and the progress of listings on exchanges, avoiding participation in anonymous team projects.”
Five, Macroeconomic Outlook: Three Major Variables in the Second Half of 2025
Federal Reserve policy shift: If a rate-cutting cycle is initiated, the crypto market may replicate a 300% increase like in 2024;
US-China digital tariff war: The 90-day tariff suspension period is about to end, and the progress of China's CBDC may impact the stablecoin market;
Hacker attacks escalate: Cross-chain bridge vulnerabilities lead to over $200 million in DeFi losses, making hardware wallets a necessity.
Conclusion:
The crypto market in 2025 will be a fantastical stage where institutions and retail investors dance together, with rationality coexisting with madness. Ordinary investors must remember: ‘In a bull market, making money relies on courage; in a bear market, survival relies on knowledge.’ At this moment, please check your positions, update your hardware wallets, and let’s catch our own waves of wealth in the digital tide!
(This article does not constitute investment advice)