Today is May 10, 2025, Saturday. The crypto market is staging a game of ice and fire: Bitcoin is poised to break through the $100,000 mark to hit a new historical high, while Ethereum has surged 14% in a single day, igniting bull market sentiment. The frenzy surrounding Trump-themed coins has plunged the market into a whirlpool of 'politics + speculation.' As an economist deeply engaged in the crypto field, I will analyze the opportunities and traps hidden beneath this wealth feast from the perspectives of macro policy, technical signals, and on-chain games.
1. Market Focus: The 'Offensive and Defensive Way' of $100,000 Bitcoin.
The current Bitcoin price is $103,000, just a step away from its historical high. From a technical perspective, the MACD golden cross is emerging on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI has pulled back to the neutral area at 60, easing overbought pressure. On-chain data shows that institutions have accumulated over 1.13 million BTC through ETFs, and the net outflow from exchanges surged by 12,000 BTC in a single day, indicating that chips are accelerating towards long-term holders. If tonight's U.S. CPI data is lower than expected, a breakthrough above $105,000 could open the path to $110,000.
Operational Strategy: Accumulate in batches when the price pulls back to the $102,000-$102,500 range, with a stop loss at $100,800; light positions can chase after breaking through $104,000. But be cautious of the overbought risk as the daily RSI approaches 75; if it unexpectedly drops below $100,000, it may trigger a wave of leveraged liquidations.
2. Ethereum's 'Tech Bull' and the Solana Ecosystem's Siphoning Effect
Ethereum reached a high of $2,491 today, driven by the Pectra upgrade and the total staked amount surpassing 18 million ETH, resulting in a weekly increase of nearly 30%. The technical analysis shows characteristics of a bull market with 'fast rises and slow corrections,' with $2,300-$2,340 becoming a new support zone. After stabilizing above $2,400, the target will directly aim for $2,600.
Solana (SOL) has made a comeback due to its ecological explosion: the on-chain TVL grew by $1.23 billion in a week, DEX trading volume surged by 35%, and NFT market activity rebounded. After breaking through $170, the next resistance range is $180-$188. If ecological projects continue to innovate, it may offset the remaining selling pressure of $320 million from FTX liquidation.
3. The 'Platform Coin King Logic' of Binance Coin (BNB)
BNB rose 6.9% today to $669, with a cumulative increase of 14.6% over the past 30 days. The driving factors behind this include:
The cumulative net inflow of Binance spot ETFs has surpassed $40.8 billion, setting a new historical high.
Regulatory Easing: The U.S. OCC has relaxed restrictions on banks holding crypto assets, benefiting compliant exchanges.
Ecological Feedback: New projects on Binance Launchpool have driven staking demand, with derivative trading volume increasing by 23%.
The technical analysis shows that BNB has bottomed out at $605 and may aim for a target of $650 after stabilizing above $630. However, attention should be paid to the potential negative news regarding anti-money laundering regulations for exchanges from the G7 finance ministers' summit.
4. The 'Trump Carnival' of Meme Coins and Risk Warnings.
The most outrageous today belongs to Trump-themed coins: TRUMP coin surged 17% in a single day due to dinner marketing, while MAGA coin rose over 20% stimulated by campaign policies, and there was even an absurd project of 'locking up Yuya for 2069.' This combination of political speculation and celebrity effect has turned meme coins into an outlet for retail FOMO sentiment, but the underlying risks cannot be ignored:
• Regulatory Sword: The U.S. Democratic Party has proposed banning politicians from issuing meme coins, and the SEC may strengthen the review of tokenized assets.
Chip manipulation: Some addresses bought MELANIA coins in advance and sold at high prices, making over $100 million in profits.
Liquidity trap: Although fully circulating meme coins are popular, over 60% of projects will go to zero within a month.
5. Macro Changes: The Long and Short Game under Fed Rate Cut Expectations.
The core contradiction in the current market lies in the tug-of-war between a 68% probability of interest rate cuts in June and the risk of inflation rebound.
Positive Factors: Japan's CPI has fallen to 2.5%, boosting arbitrage trading, while expectations for interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada are heating up, placing pressure on the dollar index.
Black Swan Warning: Events such as the outcomes of U.S.-China trade talks, G7 consensus on taxing crypto assets, and North Korean hackers using anonymous coins for financing may trigger severe volatility.
From the perspective of behavioral finance, the current fear and greed index has reached 73, indicating that the market has entered the 'optimistic bubble' stage. I recommend investors adopt a 'core + satellite' strategy: allocate 60% to mainstream assets like BTC/ETH, 20% to speculate on SOL/BNB ecosystem dividends, and tightly control stop losses with the remaining 20% to participate in short-term fluctuations of meme coins.
Conclusion: Finding a balance between madness and rationality.
The crypto market has never been a black-and-white battlefield. When Bitcoin's market value surpasses Google, and Ethereum's weekly increase outperforms the Nasdaq index, we must recognize the long-term value of blockchain technology reshaping financial infrastructure while being wary of speculative risks from Trump-themed coins, regarded as 'political tulips.'
Remember: In a bull market, you earn money from trends; in a bear market, you earn money from awareness. But only those who survive can laugh last.
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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and caution is needed when entering. Market conditions change rapidly, so please refer to real-time data.