One, Market Tremors Before the Federal Reserve Decision: The Bull-Bear Battle of BTC and ETH

Today is June 18, 2025, and the cryptocurrency market is experiencing severe fluctuations ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $104,600, with a 24-hour drop of 1.2%, while Ethereum (ETH) has fallen below the $2,500 mark, down 2.3%. Technical analysis shows that BTC has three consecutive daily declines but is still holding above the 20-day moving average ($102,800), and ETH's RSI indicator has entered the oversold area, indicating short-term rebound demand.

Key Driving Factors:

  1. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but the 'hawkish adjustment' in the dot plot for the rate cut path (with the 2025 rate cut expectation reduced from 50 basis points to 25 basis points) has become a trigger for suppressing risk assets.

  2. Geopolitical Risks: Iran's missile attack on Tel Aviv has increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets, indirectly causing capital outflow from the crypto market.

  3. On-chain Data Divergence: Despite falling prices, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow for 33 consecutive days (BlackRock's IBIT attracted $267 million in a single day), and institutional holdings have reached a historic high (over 20,000 addresses holding more than $10 million), suggesting that 'smart money' is accumulating at lower prices.

Operational Logic: In the short term, it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the range of $103,500-$106,200 for BTC and $2,500-$2,580 for ETH, with strict stop-loss; if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance (e.g., hints at interest rate cuts within the year), consider increasing positions.

Two, Stablecoin Bill Passed: A 'Watershed Moment' for the Crypto Industry

Early this morning, the U.S. Senate passed the (GENIUS Act) with a vote of 68:30, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins for the first time, requiring issuers to back their coins with U.S. dollars or Treasury bonds and disclose regularly. This bill is seen as a milestone for the legitimation of the crypto industry but has sparked bipartisan controversy: Democrats criticize it for insufficient regulation, while Republicans emphasize 'promoting innovation.'

Impact Analysis:

  1. Stablecoin Market Size May Explode: Current size is $247 billion, Standard Chartered predicts it could reach $2 trillion by 2028, with demand for U.S. Treasury bonds possibly surging simultaneously.

  2. Industry Restructuring: Increased compliance thresholds may eliminate small to medium issuers, with leading stablecoins like USDT and USDC benefiting from market share concentration.

  3. Political Game: The Trump family's crypto holdings expand, and the passage of the bill may provide financial support for his re-election campaign, further reinforcing the connection between crypto and political cycles.

Three, Altcoin Hotspots: The SOL Ecosystem and Meme Coins in a Tale of Two Extremes

  1. Solana (SOL): Stimulated by expectations of an impending ETF, ecosystem tokens such as JTO rose more than 16% today, but caution is advised due to the large unlock of ARB, ZK, and other tokens on June 17 (approximately 92.65 million ARB unlocked, worth $30.2 million), which may create selling pressure.

  2. Meme Coin Risks: ZKJ plummeted 30% in a single day due to the project's sell-off, triggering $100 million in liquidations, confirming the iron law that 'leverage is a graveyard' under high volatility.

A Short Story: Old Zhang's 'Roller Coaster' Lesson

Old Zhang is an ordinary investor who, after seeing ZKJ surge yesterday, went all-in with leverage and ended up getting wiped out this morning due to the project's sell-off. He lamented, 'The market is always one step ahead of the news; instead of chasing hot trends, it's better to protect your capital.'

Four, Investment Strategy: How to Capture Opportunities Amid Uncertainty?

  1. Core Position (BTC + ETH): Gradually build positions when prices pull back to $102,000-$105,000 (BTC) and $2,400-$2,500 (ETH), with targets of $110,000 and $3,000 respectively.

  2. Satellite Configuration: SOL ecosystem (waiting for rotation opportunities after the BTC dominance period ends), compliant stablecoins (institutional demand surges post-bill passage).

  3. Risk Control: Single position ≤ 2%, leverage ≤ 3x, dynamic stop-loss (BTC 3%, ETH 5%).

Conclusion


Today's market is a stark portrayal of 'Fear and Greed.' After the Federal Reserve's policy implementation, if BTC holds steady at $106,000, it may trigger a new round of rebounds; if it falls below key support, we must beware of a deeper correction. Remember: Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, and die in euphoria.

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(This article does not constitute investment advice; the market is risky, and decisions should be made cautiously)

$BTC