Macroeconomic Game: With CPI data confirmed, can Bitcoin's 'bull hoof' stand firm?

The U.S. May CPI data released early this morning showed an unadjusted annual rate of 3.2% (higher than the expected 2.5%), with core inflation year-on-year at 3.5%, far exceeding the Fed's target. This data reinforced expectations of 'long-term high interest rates', causing the dollar index to soar in the short term, while Bitcoin's price briefly fell below the critical support level of $108,000 before quickly rebounding.

From an economic perspective, the game of inflation stickiness and expectations for a shift in monetary policy has dominated short-term market sentiment. Despite high inflation suppressing risk asset valuations, Bitcoin has shown resilience—on-chain data shows that whale addresses (holding 10-10,000 BTC) have recently increased their holdings by over 80,000 BTC, and the trend of net outflows from spot ETFs has ended, with long-term allocation demand heating up. If Bitcoin can hold above $105,000 and break the resistance level of $112,000, a new wave of altcoin rallies may follow.



Mainstream Coin Dynamics: SOL, Sui ETF 'dark horse breaks through', Ethereum is poised to take off

  1. Bitcoin (BTC):

    As a market barometer, Bitcoin's sideways fluctuations reveal a sense of directionlessness. Technical analysis indicates that its 4-hour candlestick needs to form a 'bottom division' structure to confirm an upward trend, while on-chain trading volume has dropped to a one-year low, indicating insufficient short-term activity. However, institutional funds continue to flow in (e.g., BlackRock's Ethereum ETF nearing $5 billion) which injects confidence into the market.

  2. Ethereum (ETH):

    ETH's price is hovering around $2500, but positive fundamentals are emerging—Layer 2 ecosystem adoption rates are rising (e.g., Arbitrum), staking yields are stable, and with the potential for spot ETF approval, if ETH breaks through the $2600 resistance, it may challenge $3000.

  3. Solana (SOL) and Sui:

    • SOL due to SEC's request to update the spot ETF application documents, analysts predict approval may come within four months, with prices increasing over 15% in a single week.

    • Sui has become the new focus in the Layer 1 track due to Nasdaq's submission of the 21Shares SUI ETF listing application, with its market capitalization rising to the top 30.



Meme Coin 'Doomsday Carnival': LABUBU's sky-high auction ignites speculation

Recently, the old meme coins have collectively revived due to the LABUBU NFT auctioned at a sky-high price of 1200 ETH. For example:

  • HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu (BITCOIN) surged 22.3% in a single day;

  • BONKrising against the trend, with strong sentiment for 'speculating on new and small' assets.

Economic Warning: The surge of meme coins is essentially a 'fool's game' driven by excess liquidity and market sentiment. Historical data shows that such rallies are often accompanied by high leverage liquidations (over $90 million liquidated in the past 24 hours), and investors need to be wary of the 'passing the parcel' risk.


Risks and Opportunities: Token unlock wave, geopolitical issues, and the 'Trump effect'

  1. Token unlock pressure:

    Today, Aptos (APT) unlocked 11.31 million tokens (worth $52.7 million), and BounceBit (BB) unlocked 42.89 million tokens (worth $4.6 million), which may trigger short-term selling pressure.

  2. Geopolitical disturbances:

    The nationwide 'anti-Trump' protests sparked by Trump's birthday have intensified political polarization. If his policies (such as restrictions on crypto mining) are implemented, it may impact market sentiment.



Investment Strategy: Spot is king, closely monitor three major signals

  1. Short-term: Avoid high leverage, prioritize positions in coins like ETH and SOL that have fundamental support;

  2. Medium-term: If BTC holds above $105,000, consider gradually building positions in PayFi (XRP) and the RWA sector;

  3. Long-term: Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations in September and Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative.

Fable: The dialogue between the old miner and the speculator

An old miner overlooks the chaos of the crypto market from the mountaintop, while a speculator beside him excitedly says: 'Look! Meme coins are up again, I'm going ALL IN tonight!' The old miner shakes his head and hands him a rusty pickaxe: 'A pickaxe can mine, but it can also dig. In a bull market, a pickaxe is a tool; in a bear market, it's a weapon. The market is always there, but your principal may not be.' The speculator ponders for a moment and puts away the leveraged contract interface.

Tip:

  • Follow this account for daily analysis of key market signals;

  • This article does not constitute investment advice; the market is risky, and decisions should be made with caution.


$BTC