🔥 Summary
On May 22, Bitcoin broke the historical high of $110,804, Ethereum bulls are betting heavily on options for $6,000, BNB broke through $650 under 'Maxwell hard fork' expectations, Solana DeFi locked up over $9 billion, driving spot rebounds, while former President Trump personally hosted a dinner for TRUMP meme coin whale investors, igniting emotions to the extreme. This article dissects this 'crypto chaos' from network effects, liquidity cycles, to policy games, helping ordinary investors find balance between frenzy and risk.
📈 Market Overview
🟠 Bitcoin: A typical 'reflexive cycle'
Spot prices approach $110,804, hitting a new high for the year.
The overall realized price across the network is about $93,266, with average holders having a floating profit of 12%, and profitability driving positive emotional feedback.
Metcalfe's LawIn resonance with the continuous capital inflow into ETFs, institutional target ranges are concentrated between $118k–$130k, but the options market has already seen long-term bets above $180k.
Strategy Tip: When the price is above realized costs, short-term pullbacks are often seen as a 'buying insurance' window, rather than the start of a bear market.
🟣 Ethereum: From 'Fat Protocol' to Options Games
In May, it surged from $1,800 to $2,500 before entering a range, with institutions predicting a fluctuation range of $2,150–$2,900.
Paradigm appeared with a $7 million scale of 3,500/6,000 bull market spread, betting on reaching $6,000 by the end of the year.
From a Tobin q perspective, fee income is still below the 2021 bull peak, meaning that valuation premiums need to be realized through network upgrades.
🏦 BNB: Buyback burn + Chain upgrade as dual engines
BNB breaks through $650, technical pattern 'Flag' completes, and the market looks toward a $750 target.
The June Maxwell hard fork plans to reduce block time to 0.75 seconds, increasing TPS and reducing gas slippage.
Quarterly burn is equivalent to stock buybacks, combined with the usage increment brought by upgrades, forming the crypto version of Modigliani–Miller's so-called 'usefulness' of capital structure.
⚡ Solana: The liquidity flywheel of a low-latency network
SOL rises from $159 to $173, gaining 6% in two days, looking towards $183 after breaking key resistance at $175.
DeFi locked value (TVL) remains at $900 million, doubling compared to the end of 2024, with on-chain income climbing in tandem.
Coase's Transaction Cost Theory: Faster confirmations = lower 'internal costs', attracting high-frequency market making and cross-chain arbitrage, amplifying liquidity network effects.
🐸 Meme Coin Carnival: A perfect plot of politics and speculation
Trump announced on May 22 at a Virginia golf club to host the top 220 TRUMP coin holders, while promising a White House tour, triggering an ethical and compliance storm.
The latest action of the GENIUS stablecoin bill is 'Motion to proceed considered' on May 20, followed by final approval and review by the House of Representatives.
Keynesian 'Beauty Contest' Game: The price of meme coins depends more on collective expectations than fundamentals, and a collapse could happen at any time due to regulatory or emotional reversals.
🏛️ Policy and Macro Context
Regulatory Threshold: Although the GENIUS bill has broken through obstacles in the Senate, it still needs to be reviewed by the House of Representatives; if the text is further amended, it may trigger a 'coordinating meeting' delay between the two chambers.
Traditional Financial Penetration: Coinbase joins the S&P 500, marking the crypto industry gaining a 'ticket' to the mainstream asset pool.
Liquidity Cycle: The market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the fall, as historically, easing windows often push up β assets.
🧭 Investment Roadmap
Rebalancing Frequency: Bitcoin's annualized volatility is ~70%, suggesting minor weekly rebalancing to lock in excess returns.
Compliance Check: Verify contract code and token concentration (Gini > 80% needs to be cautious) before purchasing.
📢 Conclusion
The cheers of a bull market often accompany bubbles. From an economic perspective, you will see the driving gears behind the prices: network effects, capital costs, policy expectations, and crowd psychology. When you are driven by FOMO emotions, don't forget that risk management is the eternal alpha.
👉 Follow this account for timely updates on the next wave of market interpretations!
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is for learning and communication purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The prices of digital assets are highly volatile; please make cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance.