On the morning of May 26, 2025, the entire crypto market is in a resonance zone of "double high pressure" - high capital inflow and high technology iteration: Bitcoin ETF has attracted more than $3.6 billion in a single month and driven BTC to $107,000. Ethereum's Pectra upgrade has "doubled" the L2 capacity as soon as it landed. BNB is approaching its historical high again with ecological expansion and regulatory benefits. Solana is pushing privacy and speed to "extreme racing" with Accelerate 2025. At the same time, PEPE on the meme track has once again exceeded the $5 billion market value, and Hyperliquid's previous 5× short-selling whale suffered a $23.5 million liquidation, which has become emotional fuel. The following seven points are used to dismantle today's market and the economic logic behind it.
1. Macro Fund Pulse: US Dollar Liquidity and ETF Effect
Since May, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of $3.63 billion, pushing total ETF assets under management to over $126.8 billion, or 5.97% of BTC’s market cap.
Bitwise's latest report further raised expectations: it may attract $120 billion by the end of 2025, and the cumulative inflow is expected to reach $300 billion in 2026 (Cointelegraph).
The explosion of capital flows confirms the theory of liquidity preference (Liquidity Preference) - when the risk-free interest rate falls and ETFs provide a compliant entry, venture capital re-leverages and first chases "digital gold" to hedge against inflation.
2. Bitcoin (BTC): Chips flow from "diamond hands" to "institutional hands"
BTC is currently trading at $107,598, up 13.7% on the month.
BlackRock's IBIT attracted another $287 million in a single day, with a total inflow of $46.15 billion, demonstrating the moat effect of economies of scale on ETFs.
If estimated by Metcalfe's law, the effective network value grows with the square of the number of addresses holding coins. The expansion of ETF holdings and the increase in the number of main chain addresses give a medium-term valuation range of "accumulating momentum above 110K US dollars."
3. Ethereum (ETH): Pectra upgrade immediately releases "double bandwidth"
Pectra was activated on May 7, merging 11 EIPs from "Prague + Electra". The core is to double the Blob capacity, introduce smart accounts EIP-7702 and a large node limit of 2,048 ETH.
After the upgrade, the Layer-2 throughput limit per second is directly ×2, and the verified rates of Base and other Rollups have been reduced by 30%+, verifying the analogy of Moore's Law - technological iteration also produces a cost-half-attenuation effect on the chain.
The market expects ETH to return to $5,400 by the end of the year, and the current $2,505 is considered the "upgrade discount zone."
4. BNB: Ecological Flywheel and "Regulatory Comfort Zone"
BNB reported $669, Binance Square The author summarized three major drivers: BSC DeFi activity, North American compliance progress, and intensive exposure of large-scale conferences in late May.
As a transaction fee and staking fuel, BNB has the advantage of "asset substitution cost" in the Tobin's Q ratio - the stronger the on-chain demand, the lower its "minting cost" is below the market price, attracting arbitrage funds to continue to push up prices.
5. Solana (SOL): Accelerate 2025: Maximizing “Speed and Privacy”
Accelerate 2025 (May 19–26) demonstrated IBRL instant latency, confidential transfers, and the Firedancer client, aiming to reduce block latency to sub-second levels.
Many institutions have included SOL assets in their ETF reserves; if the US version of the SOL ETF is approved this year, analysts will raise the target range to US$150 → US$250.
Based on Network Externalities, high TPS + institutional acceptance = a positive feedback loop, boosting on-chain value capture.
6. Meme & copycat popularity: PEPE and Hyperliquid become emotion amplifiers 🐸
PEPE——“Frog Faith” once again reaches a market value of 5 billion
PEPE’s current price is $0.00001293, with a market value of $5.44 billion and a 30-day increase of 45.7%.
The price of Meme tokens is highly dependent on the "coordinated equilibrium" in game theory: as long as community consensus is maintained, speculative funds will maintain the price center of gravity.
Hyperliquid — A whale lost $23.5 million
HYPE soared 17.9% in one day to $35.93, and the DeFi perp market share reached 82.6%; a 5× short whale was forced to close his position and lost 7% of his original capital (The Market Periodical).
Under the Liquidation Cascade framework, leveraged short squeezes often trigger additional upside, and short-term volatility risks need to be vigilant.
7. Policy Radar: GENIUS Stablecoin Bill Meets Another Obstacle
The GENIUS Act received only 49 votes in the first round of voting in the Senate on May 8; it returned to the Senate for debate on May 19, but still lacked the 60-vote threshold due to Trump's conflict of interest in the USD1 stablecoin.
In the short term, regulatory uncertainty may leave a “gray period” for the US dollar stablecoin, and the record high volume of USDC also confirms the demand for safe-haven assets.
Conclusion & Investor Notes 📝
Go with the trend: ETF funds are still the most certain source of incremental growth in the first half of 2025, and BTC is still in an upward channel; but option suppression near 110K increases, and volatility shocks should be paid attention to.
Layout upgrade dividends: After the launch of the new Pectra and Solana clients, pay attention to the "selling shovel" opportunities in the L2 and high-performance application tracks.
Control emotional leverage: Meme and high-beta assets are suitable for small positions; the case of whale liquidation reminds us that leverage ≠ shortcuts.
Beware of policy turning points:If the GENIUS Act is close to passage, it may change the valuation benchmark of stablecoins, and USDC and compliant nUSD assets will benefit.
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Risk Warning: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The price of digital assets fluctuates greatly. Please make decisions prudently based on your own risk tolerance.
