飞哥-破晓黎明
十二年交易成长史，一朝悟道，化繁为简，去伪存真，攻守兼备，大道简直是交易之道也是人生之道，每日坚持原创分享，质量消息博主，公众号：飞哥言币
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Sleepless Night in the Crypto World! Powell's Speech Determines Life and Death; ETH 2480 Breaking May Trigger a $100 Billion Capital Flight
June 18th Flying Brother Speech Coin
Fundamentals:
1. The Federal Reserve is set to announce interest rates at 2 AM tonight. According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of a rate cut in this meeting is 0. Tonight's focus should be on the dot plot (number of rate cuts this year), economic forecasts, and Powell's press conference (2:30 AM). Capture his inclination through Powell's speech. If he remains dovish and unchanged, with the dot plot indicating 1 or even 2 rate cuts this year, it would be a short-term positive, US Treasury yields may fall, the dollar index may weaken, and risk appetite for crypto assets may increase, leading to mainstream buying opportunities and a rotation in altcoins; if hawkish, the dot plot no longer shows rate cuts this year, and Powell reaffirms anti-inflation as a priority, especially due to the recent oil price increases from the conflict in the Middle East, crypto may face significant short-term pressure.
Fundamentals:
1. The Federal Reserve is set to announce interest rates at 2 AM tonight. According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of a rate cut in this meeting is 0. Tonight's focus should be on the dot plot (number of rate cuts this year), economic forecasts, and Powell's press conference (2:30 AM). Capture his inclination through Powell's speech. If he remains dovish and unchanged, with the dot plot indicating 1 or even 2 rate cuts this year, it would be a short-term positive, US Treasury yields may fall, the dollar index may weaken, and risk appetite for crypto assets may increase, leading to mainstream buying opportunities and a rotation in altcoins; if hawkish, the dot plot no longer shows rate cuts this year, and Powell reaffirms anti-inflation as a priority, especially due to the recent oil price increases from the conflict in the Middle East, crypto may face significant short-term pressure.
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Evening Market Analysis:
BTC: The morning clearly mentioned that the daily line closed with a long shadow after a high point yesterday, with a focus on the 1070-1080 resistance level to look for short positions. The intraday trend fully met expectations. Currently, the daily line has formed a large bearish candle, breaking below the moving average support, and is approaching the recent low point around 103, showing some slight rebound. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, and there has not been a significant volume drop. After a slight rebound in the evening, further declines are expected. In the evening operations, pay close attention to the 1053-1063 resistance level for short positions, and focus on the 1025-1015 support level for long positions.
ETH: The morning research report clearly indicated to focus on the 2630-2660 resistance level above. The morning's highest rebound near 2620 began to decline, with an intraday drop of more than 140 points. The daily line closed with a long shadow bearish candle after a high point, which is a typical bearish signal after a rally. Currently, a larger bearish candle is forming today, and the market has found some support near the recent low point of 2480. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, and there has not yet been a significant volume drop. After a small-level rebound, further declines are still expected. In operations, focus on the 2530-2560 resistance level for short positions above, and pay attention to the 2460-2430 support level below.
#美联储FOMC会议
BTC: The morning clearly mentioned that the daily line closed with a long shadow after a high point yesterday, with a focus on the 1070-1080 resistance level to look for short positions. The intraday trend fully met expectations. Currently, the daily line has formed a large bearish candle, breaking below the moving average support, and is approaching the recent low point around 103, showing some slight rebound. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, and there has not been a significant volume drop. After a slight rebound in the evening, further declines are expected. In the evening operations, pay close attention to the 1053-1063 resistance level for short positions, and focus on the 1025-1015 support level for long positions.
ETH: The morning research report clearly indicated to focus on the 2630-2660 resistance level above. The morning's highest rebound near 2620 began to decline, with an intraday drop of more than 140 points. The daily line closed with a long shadow bearish candle after a high point, which is a typical bearish signal after a rally. Currently, a larger bearish candle is forming today, and the market has found some support near the recent low point of 2480. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, and there has not yet been a significant volume drop. After a small-level rebound, further declines are still expected. In operations, focus on the 2530-2560 resistance level for short positions above, and pay attention to the 2460-2430 support level below.
#美联储FOMC会议
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Federal Reserve Mouthpiece: If it weren't for the risks posed by tariffs, the Federal Reserve would be ready to cut interest rates this week
Key Points Breakdown
1. If it weren't for tariff risks, a rate cut should have occurred this week
This indicates that there is already a sufficient inclination within the Federal Reserve to relax monetary policy given the current economic situation;
The current improvement in inflation data has reached the 'rate cut threshold', but external disturbances (Trump's tariffs) have forced it to 'hold steady'.
2. The view on inflation has changed
Old framework: Inflation is driven by money or demand;
New reality: External shocks (such as supply chains, tariffs, geopolitical issues) are the new variables affecting inflation;
The Federal Reserve may become more flexible or lagging in the future, no longer making decisions based solely on the core CPI/PCE indicator.
Short-term impact: The Federal Reserve has met the conditions for a rate cut, and declining inflation pressure is expected to drive a repricing of risk assets, restoring market expectations;
Variables to watch out for:
Implementation of tariff increases: If Trump's tax increases are officially implemented, supply chain costs will rise significantly → A new round of imported inflation may disrupt the market;
Volatility in the U.S. Treasury market: Changes in rate cut expectations + rising U.S. fiscal expenditures could trigger severe fluctuations in Treasury yields, impacting cryptocurrency liquidity;
Dovish stance of the Federal Reserve may be hard to realize: A consensus within the FOMC on 'not taking action for now' will keep the market in a state of 'easing in sight but difficult to realize', leading to wide fluctuations in the market;
#美联储FOMC会议
Key Points Breakdown
1. If it weren't for tariff risks, a rate cut should have occurred this week
This indicates that there is already a sufficient inclination within the Federal Reserve to relax monetary policy given the current economic situation;
The current improvement in inflation data has reached the 'rate cut threshold', but external disturbances (Trump's tariffs) have forced it to 'hold steady'.
2. The view on inflation has changed
Old framework: Inflation is driven by money or demand;
New reality: External shocks (such as supply chains, tariffs, geopolitical issues) are the new variables affecting inflation;
The Federal Reserve may become more flexible or lagging in the future, no longer making decisions based solely on the core CPI/PCE indicator.
Short-term impact: The Federal Reserve has met the conditions for a rate cut, and declining inflation pressure is expected to drive a repricing of risk assets, restoring market expectations;
Variables to watch out for:
Implementation of tariff increases: If Trump's tax increases are officially implemented, supply chain costs will rise significantly → A new round of imported inflation may disrupt the market;
Volatility in the U.S. Treasury market: Changes in rate cut expectations + rising U.S. fiscal expenditures could trigger severe fluctuations in Treasury yields, impacting cryptocurrency liquidity;
Dovish stance of the Federal Reserve may be hard to realize: A consensus within the FOMC on 'not taking action for now' will keep the market in a state of 'easing in sight but difficult to realize', leading to wide fluctuations in the market;
#美联储FOMC会议
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USDC Treasury has burned over 63 million USDC on the Solana chain.
This is another significant supply adjustment following several large-scale burns this year (such as 52M burned in May and 50M burned in March).
This burn indicates a tightening of stablecoin supply, reducing the liquidity of USDC on the SOL chain in the short term.
Key focus points for the afternoon:
BTC: Mainly bearish, with resistance at 107-108 above and support at 1055-1045 below;
ETH: Mainly bearish, with resistance at 2590-2620 above and support at 2540-2510 below;
For detailed analysis, please refer to the morning research report content (previous article analysis)
#美联储FOMC会议
This is another significant supply adjustment following several large-scale burns this year (such as 52M burned in May and 50M burned in March).
This burn indicates a tightening of stablecoin supply, reducing the liquidity of USDC on the SOL chain in the short term.
Key focus points for the afternoon:
BTC: Mainly bearish, with resistance at 107-108 above and support at 1055-1045 below;
ETH: Mainly bearish, with resistance at 2590-2620 above and support at 2540-2510 below;
For detailed analysis, please refer to the morning research report content (previous article analysis)
#美联储FOMC会议
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The loud noise from Iran shatters hopes in the cryptocurrency world, while the SEC watches coldly! BTC plunges from a high platform, ETH struggles against heavy pressure, and altcoins barely survive.
June 17th, Fei Ge speaks about coins
Fundamentals:
1. At six o'clock this morning, the explosion in Tehran, the capital of Iran, escalated the conflict with the U.S., intensifying the pressure on high-risk assets, leading safe-haven funds to prefer safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds, yen), while cryptocurrency assets experienced a short-term decline.
2. Goldman Sachs: The Bank of Japan will remain steady, with the next interest rate hike expected next year!
3. The U.S. SEC has delayed a decision on Franklin's spot Ethereum ETF staking options. In the short term, this will put pressure on the Ethereum and related ETF markets, increasing volatility, and some institutional capital will adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in risk appetite. In the medium to long term, a weak SEC may eventually approve staking, and new passive income channels could attract significant institutional investment, potentially leading to more stable and larger capital inflows.
Fundamentals:
1. At six o'clock this morning, the explosion in Tehran, the capital of Iran, escalated the conflict with the U.S., intensifying the pressure on high-risk assets, leading safe-haven funds to prefer safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds, yen), while cryptocurrency assets experienced a short-term decline.
2. Goldman Sachs: The Bank of Japan will remain steady, with the next interest rate hike expected next year!
3. The U.S. SEC has delayed a decision on Franklin's spot Ethereum ETF staking options. In the short term, this will put pressure on the Ethereum and related ETF markets, increasing volatility, and some institutional capital will adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in risk appetite. In the medium to long term, a weak SEC may eventually approve staking, and new passive income channels could attract significant institutional investment, potentially leading to more stable and larger capital inflows.
See original
Evening Market Analysis:
BTC: Currently approaching the 108,000 point area mentioned in this morning's discussion, the daily line has formed a solid bullish candlestick, breaking through the upper moving average resistance, indicating a strong trend. The 4-hour chart shows a general upward trend with fluctuations, and the upward movement is relatively stable, suggesting that the market may continue to rise. This evening, pay close attention to the resistance at the 109,000-110,000 level above, and the support at the 107,000-106,000 level below.
ETH: The daily chart currently shows a significant bullish candlestick, stagnating near the 7-day moving average, indicating that there is evident pressure during the upward process. The overall trend of the daily chart has begun to turn upwards. From the 4-hour perspective, the morning saw a double bottom with a bullish candle, and the market trend is relatively strong. During the evening session, the price repeatedly surged near 2,640 and then retreated; if it breaks 2,660 again in the early morning, we can see the area around 2,720, but be cautious of a spike at the 2,750 level. In terms of evening operations, focus on the resistance at the 2,720-2,750 level with a bearish outlook, while paying attention to the support at the 2,610-2,580 level with a bullish outlook!
#加密市场反弹
BTC: Currently approaching the 108,000 point area mentioned in this morning's discussion, the daily line has formed a solid bullish candlestick, breaking through the upper moving average resistance, indicating a strong trend. The 4-hour chart shows a general upward trend with fluctuations, and the upward movement is relatively stable, suggesting that the market may continue to rise. This evening, pay close attention to the resistance at the 109,000-110,000 level above, and the support at the 107,000-106,000 level below.
ETH: The daily chart currently shows a significant bullish candlestick, stagnating near the 7-day moving average, indicating that there is evident pressure during the upward process. The overall trend of the daily chart has begun to turn upwards. From the 4-hour perspective, the morning saw a double bottom with a bullish candle, and the market trend is relatively strong. During the evening session, the price repeatedly surged near 2,640 and then retreated; if it breaks 2,660 again in the early morning, we can see the area around 2,720, but be cautious of a spike at the 2,750 level. In terms of evening operations, focus on the resistance at the 2,720-2,750 level with a bearish outlook, while paying attention to the support at the 2,610-2,580 level with a bullish outlook!
#加密市场反弹
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Whales crazily absorb 240 million USD worth of ETH! Do Ceffu and Binance's large transfers hint at the calm before the storm?
Event information review:
2025/06/16 15:32
34,000 ETH transferred from
Ceffu
to an unknown wallet
2025/06/16 04:08
32,042 ETH transferred from
Binance
to an unknown wallet
Interpretation and analysis:
1. Non-exchange → unknown wallet, leaning towards 'long-term holding' or 'OTC purchase' signals
Such transfer behavior is usually not for market-making/trading preparation, but for withdrawals. The main force transfers coins from exchanges to cold wallets or unknown addresses, with three possible reasons:
Large holders or institutions are accumulating ETH
OTC transactions followed by withdrawals to reduce the impact on market prices
Hedging asset transfer, with heightened perception of regulatory and market uncertainty
2025/06/16 15:32
34,000 ETH transferred from
Ceffu
to an unknown wallet
2025/06/16 04:08
32,042 ETH transferred from
Binance
to an unknown wallet
Interpretation and analysis:
1. Non-exchange → unknown wallet, leaning towards 'long-term holding' or 'OTC purchase' signals
Such transfer behavior is usually not for market-making/trading preparation, but for withdrawals. The main force transfers coins from exchanges to cold wallets or unknown addresses, with three possible reasons:
Large holders or institutions are accumulating ETH
OTC transactions followed by withdrawals to reduce the impact on market prices
Hedging asset transfer, with heightened perception of regulatory and market uncertainty
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Warning of Cryptocurrency Unlock Storm! $260 million tokens 'collectively released,' and these projects may be overwhelmed by a 'flood of selling'!
I. The unlocking of FTN, valued at approximately $88.8 million, will occur next week, accounting for 2.0% of the total supply.
Next week, five cryptocurrency projects will unlock tokens, releasing a total value of approximately $260 million.
On June 16, ARB unlocked approximately 93.12 million tokens (about $30.55 million, accounting for 1.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 0.931% of the total supply.
On June 17, ZK unlocked approximately 770 million tokens (about $39.17 million, accounting for 20.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 3.66% of the total supply.
On June 18, QAI unlocked approximately 560,000 tokens (about $5.474 million), accounting for 5.657% of the total supply.
On June 20, ZRO unlocked approximately 25.7 million tokens (about $49.87 million, accounting for 20.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 2.571% of the total supply.
Next week, five cryptocurrency projects will unlock tokens, releasing a total value of approximately $260 million.
On June 16, ARB unlocked approximately 93.12 million tokens (about $30.55 million, accounting for 1.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 0.931% of the total supply.
On June 17, ZK unlocked approximately 770 million tokens (about $39.17 million, accounting for 20.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 3.66% of the total supply.
On June 18, QAI unlocked approximately 560,000 tokens (about $5.474 million), accounting for 5.657% of the total supply.
On June 20, ZRO unlocked approximately 25.7 million tokens (about $49.87 million, accounting for 20.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 2.571% of the total supply.
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A series of black swan events in the crypto circle! After ZKJ's 80% flash crash, this week may face a double whammy of 'unlock wave + war', forcing BTC/ETH into a 'death corner': the 100,000 defense battle may become a 'meat grinder slaughterhouse'!
June 14, Feige's words on currency
Fundamentals:
1. Just two and a half months after the ACT flash crash, ZKJ experienced a flash crash at eleven o'clock in the evening, with a drop of over 80% within an hour. The trigger for this flash crash was mainly due to its liquidity being drained and the chain reaction of token unlocks leading to massive sell-offs. It also reveals the high vulnerability of small coin projects in terms of incentive mechanisms and weak on-chain liquidity. Once they encounter mechanism adjustments or large holder operations, it can trigger panic across the entire chain. For retail investors, recognizing these structural traps and avoiding involvement in markets prone to collapse is a strategy to preserve capital.
Fundamentals:
1. Just two and a half months after the ACT flash crash, ZKJ experienced a flash crash at eleven o'clock in the evening, with a drop of over 80% within an hour. The trigger for this flash crash was mainly due to its liquidity being drained and the chain reaction of token unlocks leading to massive sell-offs. It also reveals the high vulnerability of small coin projects in terms of incentive mechanisms and weak on-chain liquidity. Once they encounter mechanism adjustments or large holder operations, it can trigger panic across the entire chain. For retail investors, recognizing these structural traps and avoiding involvement in markets prone to collapse is a strategy to preserve capital.
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"Institutions are going crazy!" - Multiple listed companies are scrambling to acquire Ethereum, what signals does this reveal?
Since the US SEC approved Ethereum spot ETFs in April 2025, several listed companies and financial institutions globally have publicly disclosed or been captured by on-chain data, continuously increasing their ETH holdings, including but not limited to the following cases:
South Korean listed company Hanwha Investment & Securities has been reported to increase its ETH holdings through its subsidiary, intending to lay out Web3 fund products;
US-listed company Semler Scientific (SMLR) is considering expanding to ETH while disclosing its Bitcoin holdings;
Canadian listed mining company Hive Digital is adjusting its mining strategy to include ETH staking and related revenue strategies;
South Korean listed company Hanwha Investment & Securities has been reported to increase its ETH holdings through its subsidiary, intending to lay out Web3 fund products;
US-listed company Semler Scientific (SMLR) is considering expanding to ETH while disclosing its Bitcoin holdings;
Canadian listed mining company Hive Digital is adjusting its mining strategy to include ETH staking and related revenue strategies;
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The CEO of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) recently stated that the next focus will be on regulating virtual asset over-the-counter (OTC) platforms and custodians!
OTC is an important entry point for many high-net-worth users and institutions in Asia to conduct large-scale cryptocurrency transactions, and it is also a gray area for many "money laundering" operations. Once strict regulations are implemented, OTC platforms will be forced to operate in a compliant and transparent manner, and many non-compliant channels may be eliminated.
Custody, as a bridge between DeFi and CeFi, has previously lacked a clear regulatory framework. Recently, Hong Kong has attempted to introduce a "Qualified Custodian" standard. This could enhance institutional participation willingness and is expected to facilitate the safer inflow of traditional financial capital into Web3.
Short-term impact:
Some small and medium-sized OTC channels will voluntarily go offline, affecting off-chain liquidity in the Asia region. Due to tightening compliance, purchasing difficulty may temporarily increase. Investors will be more cautious about their holding paths, and trading volume may temporarily decline.
Medium to long-term impact:
This will help promote the compliance and capital absorption capability of leading cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. It incentivizes Hong Kong to become the first "regulatory oasis" for virtual assets in the Asia-Pacific region, attracting more TradFi capital.
Potential benefiting sectors and projects:
Compliant exchanges: such as Binance, will directly benefit from regulatory trust and user inflow.
On-chain custody & MPC: such as Fireblocks-related tokens, Qredo, aligned with regulatory custody standards, have potential.
Compliant wallets and off-chain identity verification: such as Civic, Polygon ID ecosystem, with increased KYV demand.
Cross-border settlement tools and stablecoins: such as USDC, TUSD, XSGD, with increased compliance scenario usage rates.
#加密市场回调 #美国加征关税
OTC is an important entry point for many high-net-worth users and institutions in Asia to conduct large-scale cryptocurrency transactions, and it is also a gray area for many "money laundering" operations. Once strict regulations are implemented, OTC platforms will be forced to operate in a compliant and transparent manner, and many non-compliant channels may be eliminated.
Custody, as a bridge between DeFi and CeFi, has previously lacked a clear regulatory framework. Recently, Hong Kong has attempted to introduce a "Qualified Custodian" standard. This could enhance institutional participation willingness and is expected to facilitate the safer inflow of traditional financial capital into Web3.
Short-term impact:
Some small and medium-sized OTC channels will voluntarily go offline, affecting off-chain liquidity in the Asia region. Due to tightening compliance, purchasing difficulty may temporarily increase. Investors will be more cautious about their holding paths, and trading volume may temporarily decline.
Medium to long-term impact:
This will help promote the compliance and capital absorption capability of leading cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. It incentivizes Hong Kong to become the first "regulatory oasis" for virtual assets in the Asia-Pacific region, attracting more TradFi capital.
Potential benefiting sectors and projects:
Compliant exchanges: such as Binance, will directly benefit from regulatory trust and user inflow.
On-chain custody & MPC: such as Fireblocks-related tokens, Qredo, aligned with regulatory custody standards, have potential.
Compliant wallets and off-chain identity verification: such as Civic, Polygon ID ecosystem, with increased KYV demand.
Cross-border settlement tools and stablecoins: such as USDC, TUSD, XSGD, with increased compliance scenario usage rates.
#加密市场回调 #美国加征关税
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Netanyahu's Office: Israel is ready for the possibility of a full-scale war with Iran
For an analysis of its impact, see the picture below, or read the previous post for explanation!
#TrumpTariffs #IsraelIranConflict
For an analysis of its impact, see the picture below, or read the previous post for explanation!
#TrumpTariffs #IsraelIranConflict
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The Middle East powder keg has been ignited: Israel's airstrike on Iran causes a global market shock; why has digital gold failed to become a 'safe haven'?
1. Background of the event:
On the morning of June 13, 2025 (Beijing time), Israel announced airstrikes on multiple military targets inside Iran, including missile bases and military facilities. This action is seen as a direct response to Iran's recent nuclear activities and military provocations from regional proxies (such as Hezbollah and the Houthis). Iran's defense system is in 'full combat readiness', the risk level in the Middle East has soared, and the U.S. military has stated it will maintain a 'regional deterrence posture' but has not directly intervened.
2. Market response: Risk assets collectively fell, with significant impacts on the crypto market.
On the morning of June 13, 2025 (Beijing time), Israel announced airstrikes on multiple military targets inside Iran, including missile bases and military facilities. This action is seen as a direct response to Iran's recent nuclear activities and military provocations from regional proxies (such as Hezbollah and the Houthis). Iran's defense system is in 'full combat readiness', the risk level in the Middle East has soared, and the U.S. military has stated it will maintain a 'regional deterrence posture' but has not directly intervened.
2. Market response: Risk assets collectively fell, with significant impacts on the crypto market.
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Explosive Cosmic Event! Feige 6.13 Confidential Letter: SEC Abolishes Ironclad Rules, BTC Drops to Unrecognizable Levels, ETH Plummets to 2480, Altcoins in a Great Escape?
June 13th, Feige's Words on Coins
Fundamentals:
1. The US SEC has postponed its decision on the Bitwise Dogecoin, Grayscale Hedera, and VanEck Avalanche ETFs.
2. Coinbase adds Sonic (S) to its listing roadmap.
3. The US SEC has officially abolished the expanded (custody rules) proposal and (rule 3b-16), along with other rules from the Gensler era, representing a shift in regulation from 'strict enforcement' to 'governance-style regulation.' This transition will significantly lower the compliance barriers for institutions entering and DeFi projects in the medium term, injecting confidence and liquidity into the market. It marks a gradual shift in regulatory direction from the high-pressure law enforcement of the Gensler era to more pragmatic, industry-friendly strategies.
Fundamentals:
1. The US SEC has postponed its decision on the Bitwise Dogecoin, Grayscale Hedera, and VanEck Avalanche ETFs.
2. Coinbase adds Sonic (S) to its listing roadmap.
3. The US SEC has officially abolished the expanded (custody rules) proposal and (rule 3b-16), along with other rules from the Gensler era, representing a shift in regulation from 'strict enforcement' to 'governance-style regulation.' This transition will significantly lower the compliance barriers for institutions entering and DeFi projects in the medium term, injecting confidence and liquidity into the market. It marks a gradual shift in regulatory direction from the high-pressure law enforcement of the Gensler era to more pragmatic, industry-friendly strategies.
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May 20th Fei Ge's Cryptocurrency Insights: Bitcoin reaches a new high, Ethereum's daily line gap is repaired, altcoins form a phase adjustment bottom line. Is the market about to take off?
Fundamentals:
1. Robinhood has submitted a proposal to the U.S. SEC to establish a framework for RWA tokenization, aimed at promoting tokenization in the U.S. securities market.
2. The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on the XRP and Dogecoin ETF proposals and is seeking public opinion.
3. SEC Chair: Promoting transparency and accountability mechanisms in cryptocurrency regulation.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Yesterday, during the Asian and European trading sessions, it experienced a downward adjustment, testing around 104, which completely aligns with the expected support level discussed yesterday. During U.S. trading hours, it began a slow ascent, reaching a recent high of around 1075. The daily line closed with a lower shadow bullish candle, maintaining an overall upward oscillating trend. The 4-hour line showed a surge followed by a retreat, and after testing below the moving average, it continues to push upward; the bullish structure remains healthy. For intraday operations, focus on support at the 1063-1053 position below and key resistance at the 1078-1088 position above.
1. Robinhood has submitted a proposal to the U.S. SEC to establish a framework for RWA tokenization, aimed at promoting tokenization in the U.S. securities market.
2. The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on the XRP and Dogecoin ETF proposals and is seeking public opinion.
3. SEC Chair: Promoting transparency and accountability mechanisms in cryptocurrency regulation.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Yesterday, during the Asian and European trading sessions, it experienced a downward adjustment, testing around 104, which completely aligns with the expected support level discussed yesterday. During U.S. trading hours, it began a slow ascent, reaching a recent high of around 1075. The daily line closed with a lower shadow bullish candle, maintaining an overall upward oscillating trend. The 4-hour line showed a surge followed by a retreat, and after testing below the moving average, it continues to push upward; the bullish structure remains healthy. For intraday operations, focus on support at the 1063-1053 position below and key resistance at the 1078-1088 position above.
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May 20th Feige's Thoughts on Cryptocurrency: Ethereum's daily double bottom test, aggressive washout ends, next attack target 3050
Fundamentals:
1. LIDO has released a framework for Ethereum auxiliary proposer mechanisms, which is beneficial for adapting to the evolving Ethereum framework and strengthening investor confidence in the tokens.
2. The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on the Solana ETF application.
3. New York Fed President Williams: Inflation has been slowly and gradually declining.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Yesterday on the daily chart, it dipped to the 102 position, and on the smaller time frames, multiple touches were seen without breaking. In the evening during U.S. trading hours, it began to rise again, touching near the previous day's high. The daily line closed with a long lower shadow small bearish candle, overall maintaining a trend of upward volatility, and the candlestick is still within an upward channel, having adjusted to fill the gap from the rapid rise earlier in the month. On the 4-hour chart, yesterday there was a double bottom touch at the 102 position, followed by a rapid and significant rise, with the price approaching the previous day's high again. The 4-hour line has seen some pullback after touching, with significant resistance above. For intraday operations, focus on the support at 105-104 below, and the resistance at 1065-1075 above. Recently, Bitcoin has been in a high-level consolidation, so operate cautiously and be strict with point requirements!
1. LIDO has released a framework for Ethereum auxiliary proposer mechanisms, which is beneficial for adapting to the evolving Ethereum framework and strengthening investor confidence in the tokens.
2. The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on the Solana ETF application.
3. New York Fed President Williams: Inflation has been slowly and gradually declining.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Yesterday on the daily chart, it dipped to the 102 position, and on the smaller time frames, multiple touches were seen without breaking. In the evening during U.S. trading hours, it began to rise again, touching near the previous day's high. The daily line closed with a long lower shadow small bearish candle, overall maintaining a trend of upward volatility, and the candlestick is still within an upward channel, having adjusted to fill the gap from the rapid rise earlier in the month. On the 4-hour chart, yesterday there was a double bottom touch at the 102 position, followed by a rapid and significant rise, with the price approaching the previous day's high again. The 4-hour line has seen some pullback after touching, with significant resistance above. For intraday operations, focus on the support at 105-104 below, and the resistance at 1065-1075 above. Recently, Bitcoin has been in a high-level consolidation, so operate cautiously and be strict with point requirements!
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May 19th Feige's Cryptocurrency Insights: Bitcoin's breakthrough rise and subsequent pullback – is it a breakthrough increase or high-level offloading?
Fundamental Analysis:
1. Ethereum core developers plan to launch the Fusaka development network (fusaka-devnet-0) on May 26, 2025. This is an important testing network following the Pectra upgrade, aimed at introducing several key improvements to the Ethereum mainnet. These features are expected to be deployed to the mainnet by the end of 2025 to pave the way for mainnet upgrades, enhance network performance and security, and promote developer and community participation.
2. A U.S. House committee approved Trump's tax cut bill in preparation for a potential vote this week.
3. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that if countries do not reach a trade agreement with the U.S., tariffs will revert to equal levels.
1. Ethereum core developers plan to launch the Fusaka development network (fusaka-devnet-0) on May 26, 2025. This is an important testing network following the Pectra upgrade, aimed at introducing several key improvements to the Ethereum mainnet. These features are expected to be deployed to the mainnet by the end of 2025 to pave the way for mainnet upgrades, enhance network performance and security, and promote developer and community participation.
2. A U.S. House committee approved Trump's tax cut bill in preparation for a potential vote this week.
3. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that if countries do not reach a trade agreement with the U.S., tariffs will revert to equal levels.
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May 16th, Feige's Currency Talk: FTX will carry out a second debt distribution of over $5 billion on May 30, and the market is about to face significant selling pressure and emotional hedging in the short term.
May 16th, Feige's Currency Talk
Fundamentals:
1. FTX's main repayment will begin on May 30, with total distributed funds exceeding $5 billion. Due to FTX needing to sell assets to raise compensation funds, it may exert selling pressure on the market in the short term; the mid-term impact could increase market liquidity as compensation funds return to the market; in the long term, it will help restore investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Hackers have been able to access Coinbase customer data since January this year, and Coinbase expects the data breach to result in losses of up to $400 million.
3. Federal Reserve's Barr: Supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation.
Fundamentals:
1. FTX's main repayment will begin on May 30, with total distributed funds exceeding $5 billion. Due to FTX needing to sell assets to raise compensation funds, it may exert selling pressure on the market in the short term; the mid-term impact could increase market liquidity as compensation funds return to the market; in the long term, it will help restore investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Hackers have been able to access Coinbase customer data since January this year, and Coinbase expects the data breach to result in losses of up to $400 million.
3. Federal Reserve's Barr: Supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation.
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May 13th Feige's Cryptocurrency Commentary: Is Bitcoin's current market trend reaching a peak or is it a normal phase adjustment before a surge to 110,000?
Fundamentals:
1. The SEC Chairman may overhaul the rules for crypto economic merchants, potentially abolishing the current framework that allows brokers to act as custodians of digital assets, while also considering allowing hedge funds to self-custody crypto assets. This statement is favorable for large funds to directly participate in the crypto market, expected to boost liquidity and trading volume; it will also combat the phenomenon of 'compliance arbitrage', posing a threat to existing custodial institutions and enhancing market trust. In the short term, this may lead to fluctuations in some currencies and platform tokens, especially significant declines in tokens related to custody concepts.
1. The SEC Chairman may overhaul the rules for crypto economic merchants, potentially abolishing the current framework that allows brokers to act as custodians of digital assets, while also considering allowing hedge funds to self-custody crypto assets. This statement is favorable for large funds to directly participate in the crypto market, expected to boost liquidity and trading volume; it will also combat the phenomenon of 'compliance arbitrage', posing a threat to existing custodial institutions and enhancing market trust. In the short term, this may lead to fluctuations in some currencies and platform tokens, especially significant declines in tokens related to custody concepts.
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April 17th Feige's Insights on Cryptocurrency: The Federal Reserve maintains its independence regarding current monetary policy, supports cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin is in a dilemma, initially dropping before rebounding.
Fundamentals:
1. Powell: The independence of the Federal Reserve is not influenced by politics; the impact of tariffs on inflation may be more lasting; the labor market is stable, maintaining balance; artificial intelligence is in its early stages; don’t expect the Federal Reserve to step in to save the market, Trump changes every day; cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, and bank regulation will experience 'some easing'.
2. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 83.2%;
3. After Powell's speech, US stocks began to widen their declines, the three major indices continued to fall and closed with large bearish candlesticks. Gold continued to hit new highs, and Bitcoin fell before rebounding.
1. Powell: The independence of the Federal Reserve is not influenced by politics; the impact of tariffs on inflation may be more lasting; the labor market is stable, maintaining balance; artificial intelligence is in its early stages; don’t expect the Federal Reserve to step in to save the market, Trump changes every day; cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, and bank regulation will experience 'some easing'.
2. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 83.2%;
3. After Powell's speech, US stocks began to widen their declines, the three major indices continued to fall and closed with large bearish candlesticks. Gold continued to hit new highs, and Bitcoin fell before rebounding.
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