June 14, Feige's words on currency
Fundamentals:
1. Just two and a half months after the ACT flash crash, ZKJ experienced a flash crash at eleven o'clock in the evening, with a drop of over 80% within an hour. The trigger for this flash crash was mainly due to its liquidity being drained and the chain reaction of token unlocks leading to massive sell-offs. It also reveals the high vulnerability of small coin projects in terms of incentive mechanisms and weak on-chain liquidity. Once they encounter mechanism adjustments or large holder operations, it can trigger panic across the entire chain. For retail investors, recognizing these structural traps and avoiding involvement in markets prone to collapse is a strategy to preserve capital.
2. This week will see a large unlocking of tokens such as ZK, ZKJ, and ARB; please pay attention to risk control!
3. The Israel-Palestine conflict has escalated, and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza is worsening. In the short term, risk appetite is sharply declining, with large-scale capital withdrawal, exacerbated declines due to leveraged liquidations, and increasing doubts about the safe-haven qualities of digital gold. Crypto assets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks; when geopolitical conflicts erupt, risk appetite declines, and crypto assets are the first to suffer. If the conflict escalates and the impact expands, crypto assets may continue to be under pressure.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Last week's weekly line surged and then fell back, forming a long upper shadow bearish candle. This week's opening price is the first time in two and a half months that it has fallen below the seven-day moving average. Starting from the 17th, small cycle U.S. Treasury bonds will gradually mature, while long-term bonds are maturing in early July. The maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds will be favorable for non-U.S. products. However, the current geopolitical conflict environment may lead some funds to the U.S. dollar or gold, thus weakening this favorable aspect. On the daily level, affected by geopolitical conflicts, the coin price has significantly dropped, piercing near 103, and the market has entered a phase of adjustment. From the small cycle rebound rhythm of the past few days, it can be seen that the pressure above is still relatively large, with multiple surges to 106 and pullbacks to 104. For the subsequent market, the only way to profit is for Bitcoin to undergo a deep adjustment, which would be the most suitable! Without new funds entering the market, such as interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is unlikely to break out of a breakthrough market, and the market's fear of heights makes the sustainability of the market difficult to last; this kind of profit is fleeting. The 4-hour chart shows a slight rebound with a low trading volume this morning, but there is significant pressure above. For today's operations, key attention should be paid to the pressure at the 1065-1075 position above, and support at the 1045-1035 position below.
ETH: Last week's weekly line surged and then fell back, forming a long upper shadow small bullish candle. Currently, the K-line is still on the lower moving average support, maintaining an overall upward trend. However, the market environment is poor, making it difficult for the market to break out into a significant upward trend; a catalyst for future rises is still needed. The daily chart has recorded four consecutive bearish candles, and the support in the 2480-2500 range below is clearly effective, with the market stabilizing somewhat, but the shrinking volume is causing sideways movement. On the 4-hour chart, this morning's double-bottom rebound has formed a small bullish entity, and the market still has room for further rebound, but the extent of the rebound will not be large. For today’s operations, focus on the pressure at the 2630-2600 position above, and the support at the 2530-2500 position below.
Altcoins: As mentioned in the fundamentals, the tokens that are about to be unlocked this week require careful risk control to guard against market chain reactions. Following up on the previous point, without the entry of new funds such as interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is unlikely to achieve a high level, and the market's risk aversion will make high-risk altcoins even harder to strengthen. Currently, the market's profit potential is low, and the altcoin market is fleeting; the limited profits are hard to secure! Be patient and let the bullets fly.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; proceed with caution when entering. This is a personal opinion and not advice, for sharing purposes only.