1. Background of the event:

On the morning of June 13, 2025 (Beijing time), Israel announced airstrikes on multiple military targets inside Iran, including missile bases and military facilities. This action is seen as a direct response to Iran's recent nuclear activities and military provocations from regional proxies (such as Hezbollah and the Houthis). Iran's defense system is in 'full combat readiness', the risk level in the Middle East has soared, and the U.S. military has stated it will maintain a 'regional deterrence posture' but has not directly intervened.

2. Market response: Risk assets collectively fell, with significant impacts on the crypto market.


Bitcoin fell by 3.9% in 24 hours, with a maximum drop of nearly 6000 points;

Ethereum fell by 5.2% in 24 hours, with a maximum drop of nearly 350 points;

Altcoins fell by 8-20% in 24 hours;

Stablecoin premiums rose to 100.8%, as investors sought short-term safe havens, leading to high sentiment for selling non-mainstream assets;

3. Why is the crypto market experiencing such drastic fluctuations?

1. In the event of a short-term escalation of conflict, the market prefers quick realization and low-volatility assets (cash in USD, short-term bonds, gold, crude oil), leading to BTC performing worse than expected.

2. The altcoin ecosystem is gathering a large number of leveraged long positions, and sudden geopolitical risks trigger a chain liquidation, exacerbating the depth of the decline.

3. ETF funds have not yet widely penetrated into altcoins, failing to form a buffer zone.

4. Market outlook: War escalation vs. ceasefire relief, script simulation

Script A: Conflict is controllable in the short term (probability about 50%)

BTC/ETH quickly stabilized, and market sentiment is recovering;

Funds may take the opportunity to adjust positions, altcoins may welcome a rebound after overselling;

If ETH can hold above $2480-$2500, it will become a leading indicator for market recovery.

Script B: Conflict escalation, involving U.S. military/oil facilities (probability about 30%)

Financial markets have entered a deeper state of 'risk aversion';

U.S. stocks, crude oil, gold, and the entire crypto market are experiencing intensified fluctuations;

BTC may have a 'false safe-haven' performance, but altcoins will face a secondary valuation kill;

BTC may test the $98000-$95000 area, and ETH may drop towards the $2280-$2380 support range.

Script C: Mid to long-term confrontation may turn into a protracted war (probability about 20%)

The 'new geopolitical cold war' pattern continues to affect global liquidity;

ETF institutional accumulation slows down, combined with U.S. debt risks, the market continues to fluctuate and build a bottom;

Sector rotation will be more selective, Narrative-driven will rely more on endogenous benefits;

The ETH ETF catalyst will become the only expected structural upward trend.


The Middle East conflict is just a surface issue, the deeper signal is: the crypto market is shifting from a Narrative speculation cycle to a liquidity and geopolitical sensitivity cycle. The current situation is not 'buying panic', but 'waiting for signals'. Remember this: "In war, those who survive first are qualified to talk about financial freedom."

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#以色列伊朗冲突 #加密市场回调