Fundamental Analysis:
1. Ethereum core developers plan to launch the Fusaka development network (fusaka-devnet-0) on May 26, 2025. This is an important testing network following the Pectra upgrade, aimed at introducing several key improvements to the Ethereum mainnet. These features are expected to be deployed to the mainnet by the end of 2025 to pave the way for mainnet upgrades, enhance network performance and security, and promote developer and community participation.
2. A U.S. House committee approved Trump's tax cut bill in preparation for a potential vote this week.
3. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that if countries do not reach a trade agreement with the U.S., tariffs will revert to equal levels.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Six consecutive weekly gains, last week closed with a 'hammer' candlestick (long lower shadow, real body bullish candle). Currently in a major upward trend, the overall trajectory maintains a stepwise increase! In daily trends, after a week of phased adjustments, there was a significant rise of over three thousand points yesterday, closing with a solid bullish candlestick, achieving a recent breakthrough. However, the coin price is close to historical highs, with a large pullback in smaller time frames. It is currently stabilizing at the 7-day moving average on the daily chart, and bulls continue to focus on support near 103K. As long as this position holds, the overall upward pattern will not be damaged. In the 4-hour chart, after a volume contraction adjustment near 103K over the weekend, it began to surge with volume. Last night, the market experienced a sharp rise and fall; it remains unclear whether this is a major player's high-level washout or a chance to offload at high positions. Focus on defending the 103 level, with daily closing signals being primary. For intraday operations, pay attention to support at 103-102, and resistance at 105-106.
ETH: After a significant rise in the weekly chart, it has entered a phase of adjustment. Last week, it closed with a long upper and lower shadow bearish candlestick, consistent with Ethereum's phase of upward movement. If Ethereum can close with a long lower shadow this week, it will usher in a new round of upward movement. In daily trends, Ethereum has been in a phase of adjustment for eight days, and the technical gap has been repaired. Last week, it was mentioned that Ethereum might build a new base between 2350-2280. At 4 AM, a sharp rebound occurred near 2320, and it is currently undergoing a second test. If this second test rebounds and the daily closes with a long lower shadow, it indicates that this drop was a washout by the main players, marking the end of this phase of Ethereum's adjustment. The 4-hour chart shows sharp rises and falls, indicating that the current behavior of Ethereum leans towards washout actions. The important defense line is at 2300-2280. For intraday operations, focus on support at 2350-2320, beware of sharp dips at 2280, and pay attention to resistance at 2480-2520.
Altcoins: The current adjustment space for altcoins is nearing 30%, with most having retraced to the top of the second wave of increases. This adjustment is a healthy phase adjustment! If the market continues to decline, it will damage the upward channel of most altcoins. Today, partial positions can be tried for entry. The launch of the Fusaka development network is beneficial for further expansion and cost reduction of L2 scaling solutions, strengthening Ethereum's data layer functionality, and providing writing space for modularization. Relevant tokens such as op, arb, zk may see increased trading activity due to technical benefits, warranting close attention.
He Yue: Recently, I plan to allocate positions in three altcoin swings, controlling the space to 10%. Coupled with Ethereum's bottoming signals, I will reallocate for Ethereum's volatility. For intraday short-term operations, refer to the analysis points above and pay attention to stop-loss on breakouts!
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; proceed with caution. Personal opinions, not advice, for sharing purposes only.