June 18th Flying Brother Speech Coin
Fundamentals:
1. The Federal Reserve is set to announce interest rates at 2 AM tonight. According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of a rate cut in this meeting is 0. Tonight's focus should be on the dot plot (number of rate cuts this year), economic forecasts, and Powell's press conference (2:30 AM). Capture his inclination through Powell's speech. If he remains dovish and unchanged, with the dot plot indicating 1 or even 2 rate cuts this year, it would be a short-term positive, US Treasury yields may fall, the dollar index may weaken, and risk appetite for crypto assets may increase, leading to mainstream buying opportunities and a rotation in altcoins; if hawkish, the dot plot no longer shows rate cuts this year, and Powell reaffirms anti-inflation as a priority, especially due to the recent oil price increases from the conflict in the Middle East, crypto may face significant short-term pressure.
2. The US SEC has delayed the approval of Franklin's XRP and Solana spot ETFs!
3. The US Senate has passed the stablecoin (GENIUS Act), shifting the focus to the House of Representatives. This is an important milestone for the institutionalization of stablecoins, and if the House follows suit smoothly, it will have a profound positive impact in the fields of crypto + payment + DeFi.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The daily line closed with a large bearish candle yesterday, continuing the decline from the previous day. The technical analysis indicates a break below the moving average support, with the seven-day moving average turning downward again forming a death cross. The overall trend of the daily line leans towards bearish, but there is significant support at the recent low point around 103, considered an important defense line. From the 4-hour line perspective, there was a nearly five thousand point drop over the last 24 hours, with a rebound after dipping down to the 103 support level. Observing the recent rebound rhythm, the rebound highs are decreasing, indicating heavy pressure on the market trend. For intraday operations, pay close attention to the resistance levels of 1055-1065 above and the support levels of 1035-1025 below.
ETH: From the daily line perspective, the last two days saw a rise and then a fall, closing with a bearish candle. The seven-day moving average continues to extend downward, forming a golden cross downward, indicating a weak trend. However, the defense at the lower low point around 2480 is still struggling to hold. Once broken, the bearish market may intensify, with support seen at 2280 below. From the 4-hour line perspective, after last week's new high, the overall market entered a phase of fluctuating decline, with significant support at the 2480 level in the early morning, showing some rebound, but trading volume is shrinking. For intraday operations, pay close attention to the resistance levels of 2540-2570 above and the support levels of 2490-2460 below.
Altcoins: The rebound from the day before yesterday saw many coins performing quite well, with many people experiencing FOMO. Recently, I have emphasized one point in the altcoin sector: the current instability leads to heavy pressure on risk assets, especially high-risk asset trends being very unstable, where a day's drop may erase several days of gains. The outlook for altcoins in the entire market is very poor, and the only profits are difficult to secure. Currently, under the pressure of geopolitical conflicts and the SEC's delay on spot ETFs, altcoins must be patient, waiting for market sentiment to ease, and liquidity to emerge for the market's sustainability to show up, thus generating profitability.
The cryptocurrency market is volatile, proceed with caution when entering, this is a personal opinion and not advice, for sharing purposes only.