June 13th, Feige's Words on Coins
Fundamentals:
1. The US SEC has postponed its decision on the Bitwise Dogecoin, Grayscale Hedera, and VanEck Avalanche ETFs.
2. Coinbase adds Sonic (S) to its listing roadmap.
3. The US SEC has officially abolished the expanded (custody rules) proposal and (rule 3b-16), along with other rules from the Gensler era, representing a shift in regulation from 'strict enforcement' to 'governance-style regulation.' This transition will significantly lower the compliance barriers for institutions entering and DeFi projects in the medium term, injecting confidence and liquidity into the market. It marks a gradual shift in regulatory direction from the high-pressure law enforcement of the Gensler era to more pragmatic, industry-friendly strategies.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The June interest rate meeting did not lower interest rates, and the expectation for a July rate cut has been postponed to the end of Q3 or Q4, which constitutes a phase of liquidity pressure on the crypto market. Geopolitical factors are influencing the situation, panic sentiment is rising, and safe-haven funds are flowing back into gold and oil, while Bitcoin is still treated as a high-risk asset and is under pressure in the short term. However, if the situation spreads, oil prices rise, and global inflation expectations restart, it may once again trigger the logic of 'anti-dollar + anti-inflation assets' in the medium term, which would be bullish for Bitcoin. On the daily level, yesterday closed with a large bearish candle, breaking below technical moving average support, and this morning saw a significant drop, briefly piercing the low point of 103 for nearly a month. The K-line for the past three days has shown high-level fluctuations and declines, with a significant bearish volume, indicating insufficient bullish momentum, a cooling of market risk appetite, and active selling pressure. Currently, Bitcoin is in a short-term pressure release phase, but the mid-term structure has not been severely damaged. If it can build a support platform around the 95 area, combined with macro catalysts (ETF funds returning, a shift in Fed easing), it is expected to challenge previous highs again. For short-term operations today, pay close attention to support around the 102-103 positions and resistance around the 105-106 positions.
ETH: The daily volume surged but failed to effectively hold above 2800 points, indicating that the main force's trial was unsuccessful and the main upward phase has not yet started. This pullback is accompanied by a certain volume, indicating that funds are actively taking profits or reducing positions. If it bounces back within the 2380-2480 range with diminishing volume, it would present a buying opportunity; if it breaks down again with increased volume, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a trend reversal. Currently, the price of Ethereum is at the bottom of a one-month box fluctuation near the 2480 line, and there has been a slight rebound, indicating that this position has clear support, and the market is expected to test this support for a rebound. In the short term, if it holds above 2480, one can start entering the market; in the medium term, if it stabilizes above 2700 with increased volume, the target is 3050; in the later stage, if it strengthens structurally in Q3 and reaches 3050, it can enter the second phase of the bull market, coupled with ETF approvals and macro easing, Ethereum will aim for the 34-35 range. For short-term operations today, pay close attention to support around the 2480-2450 positions and resistance around the 2560-2580 positions.
Altcoins: A systematic correction has occurred against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical risks, with altcoins, as high-risk assets, experiencing a significantly greater overall decline than mainstream coins, reflecting a sudden surge in risk-averse sentiment. The large volume drop over the past 24 hours shows that risk assets are retreating, shifting towards mainstream or waiting on the sidelines, particularly in the recent active MEME, L2 scaling, and AI sectors, which have experienced sharp declines. In the short term, if Bitcoin falls below 103 and Ethereum falls below 2480, altcoins will accelerate their decline. In the absence of new incremental capital (similar to a large influx of stablecoins) and with market panic sentiment unsettled, it is advisable to maintain high vigilance and stay on the sidelines. In the medium term, as we approach late June when US Treasury bonds mature, if the market can show an attractive pull for capital, and if Ethereum stabilizes, it may be led by top L1 or L2 projects, especially if individual quality projects are listed on exchanges, there may be significant explosive potential in the short term.
The crypto market is highly volatile; caution is needed when entering the market. This is a personal opinion and not advice, for sharing purposes only.