June 17th, Fei Ge speaks about coins
Fundamentals:
1. At six o'clock this morning, the explosion in Tehran, the capital of Iran, escalated the conflict with the U.S., intensifying the pressure on high-risk assets, leading safe-haven funds to prefer safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds, yen), while cryptocurrency assets experienced a short-term decline.
2. Goldman Sachs: The Bank of Japan will remain steady, with the next interest rate hike expected next year!
3. The U.S. SEC has delayed a decision on Franklin's spot Ethereum ETF staking options. In the short term, this will put pressure on the Ethereum and related ETF markets, increasing volatility, and some institutional capital will adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in risk appetite. In the medium to long term, a weak SEC may eventually approve staking, and new passive income channels could attract significant institutional investment, potentially leading to more stable and larger capital inflows.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: As mentioned yesterday, the current market is greatly affected by geopolitical instability, leading to weak market sustainability. The profitability of this temporary rising market in the spot market will be very low, making it difficult to secure even small profits. Any slight escalation of this conflict puts significant pressure on the high-risk cryptocurrency market. Yesterday, the daily candlestick rose to about 109, but this morning, due to the escalation of geopolitical conflict, it quickly fell by nearly three thousand points, closing with a long upper shadow bullish candle. The daily closing is above the moving average, currently showing three consecutive bullish candles, with the K-line turning upwards, and there is hope for another rise near the 109-110 level today. Looking at the 4-hour chart, there has been a steady rise starting from yesterday morning for 24 hours, and today there was a large bearish candle, but now it is showing a small upward movement, and the overall minor upward trend remains intact, with more small increases expected during the Asian trading session. In today's operations, pay attention to the resistance at 109-110 above and the support at 106-105 below.
ETH: The daily candlestick rose and then fell, forming a long upper shadow bearish candle, indicating short-term market concerns about breaking the upper resistance. This suggests that without more positive catalysts (like the approval of a staking ETF), a direct breakout is difficult, and short-term sideways consolidation or a retest will be the main theme. In the long-term view, the rising blue trend line remains intact and undamaged, leaning towards bullish in a healthy correction. The 4-hour chart shows a large bearish candle this morning falling back to yesterday's gains; although there is a rebound now, during yesterday's rise, it consolidated for a long time in the 2630-2660 range, which puts pressure on the current rebound. In today's operations, pay close attention to the resistance at the 2630-2660 level above, and the support at the 2580-2550 level below, with the short-term bottom expected near 2500 points.
Altcoins: From the current market performance, it is clear that the pullback is significantly stronger for Ethereum and altcoins compared to Bitcoin. This is mainly due to the influence of geopolitical conflicts, making high-risk altcoins less attractive to the market. The sustainability of their rebound is very weak, and weak rebound trends yield low profitability, with relatively high risks of correction, making it difficult to secure any profits. The best strategy right now is to wait and see, avoid FOMO, and wait for the geopolitical conflicts to ease and for market liquidity to improve before seizing market opportunities.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, caution is needed when entering the market, personal views, not advice, for sharing only.