Current Situation: SOL currently reports at 202 points, consistently testing the key pressure zone of 200-205 on the daily chart. The RSI on the 4-hour chart is at 62, and the MACD is flat above the zero axis, with weakening short-term momentum; observation is needed to see if it can break through the 205 previous high resistance with volume.
Core Long and Short Drivers: Long Logic:
1. Strong Ecological Fundamentals: Solana's on-chain TVL remains at a high of 8.6 billion, with a 25% increase in weekly NFT trading volume.
2. Technical Structure Health: Support conversion completed in the range of 195-200, on-chain data shows concentrated buy orders defending the 200 level.
3. Macroeconomic Environment Support: The expectation for a rate cut in September remains at a 90% probability, with continued preference for high-risk assets.
Short Risk:
1. Significant Previous High Pressure: The 205-209 range is a historical congestion area, and the success rate of the first breakout is usually low.
2. Leverage Overheat: The average funding rate for perpetual contracts reaches 0.07%, indicating crowded long leverage.
3. Linked Risks: If BTC loses the 113000 support, it may lead to a SOL pullback.
Key Levels: Support: 200 (psychological level), 195 (20-day EMA), 190 (bullish lifeline). Resistance: 205 (previous high pressure), 209 (historical high), 215 (Fibonacci extension level).
Operational Strategy: Long Strategy:
1. Pullback Layout: Wait for stabilization after a pullback to the 198-200 area to gradually add long positions (stop loss at 195).
2. Breakout Long: After stabilizing with volume above 205, pursue long positions (stop loss at 200, target 215). Short Hedge: Limited to short-term: If it spikes to the 204-206 area and the 4-hour KDJ shows overbought (>85), consider a light short (stop loss at 209, target 198).
Risk Control Focus:
1. Leverage Control: SOL's volatility can reach 18% in a day; it is recommended to limit leverage to ≤3 times.
2. Event Alert: Focus on this week's PCE data release (August 30).
3. On-chain Monitoring: Track the movements of whales in addresses above 200.
Summary: SOL is at a critical stage for breaking through previous highs, it is recommended to adopt a buy low and sell high strategy in the 198-205 range, with a target of 215 after effectively breaking through 205. Strict stop loss settings are necessary to guard against false breakout risks.