Current situation: ETH is currently at 4728 points, oscillating and consolidating between 4700-4750 on the daily level. The 4-hour MACD is near the zero axis, and the RSI is at 49, indicating a temporary balance of bullish and bearish momentum. The 4700 integer level has become a short-term dividing line for bulls and bears, and direction choice needs to be monitored.

Core long and short drivers: Bullish logic:

1. Technical support is effective: The 4700 level gathers the 20-day EMA and previous platform support, and on-chain data shows a large number of buy orders accumulating at this position.

2. Positive ecological data: The number of active addresses on the Layer 2 network increased by 15% week-on-week, and low Gas fees benefit ecological development.

3. Continued interest rate cut expectations: Probability of a rate cut in September remains at 90%, and the macro environment continues to support risk assets.

Short risk:

1. Heavy upward resistance: The 4750-4800 range is a previous area of intensive trading, and multiple unsuccessful attempts to break through indicate significant pressure.

2. Bearish sentiment in derivatives market: The perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative, and bearish sentiment has increased.

3. Market linkage pressure: If BTC loses the key support at 113000, it may lead to a synchronous pullback in ETH.

Key positions: Support: 4700 (bull-bear dividing line), 4650 (dynamic strong support), 4600 (200-day EMA) Resistance: 4750 (immediate resistance), 4800 (previous high resistance), 4850 (trend line pressure).

Operational strategy: Bullish strategy:

1. Defensive long: Set up long positions after stabilizing in the 4690-4710 range (stop loss at 4650).

2. Long on breakout: Go long after stabilizing above 4760 with increased volume (stop loss at 4710, target at 4850). Short strategy:

3. Short on rebound: Lightly short when the price rebounds to the 4740-4760 range and shows signs of stagnation (stop loss at 4800).

4. Shorting on breakout: Short after effectively breaking below 4680 (stop loss at 4720, target at 4600).

Key risk control:

1. Position management: It is recommended that the position size for a single trade does not exceed 5%, and total leverage is controlled within 3 times.

2. Event warning: Pay close attention to the release of PCE data on August 30, which may trigger significant volatility.

3. Stop loss discipline: Stop losses must be set for both long and short positions to guard against one-sided market risks.

Summary: ETH is at a critical stage of contest at the 4700 level. It is recommended to wait for a clear direction before making a move. A breakout above 4760 could lead to bullish positions, while a drop below 4680 should prompt a temporary wait-and-see approach. Pay close attention to the impact of the evening PCE data on market sentiment.