Current Situation: BTC is currently at 112800; after breaking the key support at 115000, it accelerates downward. The 4-hour moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD is below the zero line with a death cross, and RSI has fallen to 38, nearing the oversold area. The short-term technicals are bearish, but caution is needed for a potential oversold rebound.

Core Long and Short Drivers: Long Logic:

1. Oversold Repair Demand: RSI is nearing the oversold area, historical data shows strong support in the 112000-113000 range.

2. Institutional Acquisition Willingness: On-chain data shows a large number of institutional limit buy orders accumulating in the 110000-112000 range.

3. Rate Cut Expectations Support: The expectation of a rate cut in September still holds a 90% probability, with no fundamental change in the macro backdrop.

Short Risk:

1. Technical Breakdown Pressure: A valid drop below 112000 may trigger algorithmic sell orders, looking down to the psychological level of 110000.

2. Leverage Liquidation Chain Reaction: The long-short ratio across the network rises to 1.3, putting significant pressure on long leverage liquidations.

3. Market Sentiment Weakening: The Fear and Greed Index drops to 45 (fear), and capital outflow hits a monthly high.

Key Levels: Support: 112000 (weekly trend line), 110500 (previous low platform), 109000 (200-day EMA) Resistance: 114500 (4-hour MA30), 116000 (previous support turned resistance)

Operational Strategy: Long Strategy:

1. Gamble on Sharp Drop: Gradually enter long positions in the 111000-112000 area (stop loss at 109500).

2. Breakthrough and Retest: If the rebound breaks above 114500 and retests for confirmation, follow up (stop loss at 113000).

Short Strategy:

1. Short on Rebound: Light short positions when rebounding to the 114000-114500 area (stop loss at 116000).

2. Follow Short on Breakdown: Follow short after a valid drop below 111500 (stop loss at 113000, target at 109500).

Risk Control Focus:

1. Strict Stop Loss: Control single trade losses within 3% of total funds.

2. Event Warning: Focus on tomorrow's PCE data release, as volatility may spike.

3. Leverage Management: It is recommended to use ≤2x leverage to prevent spike risks.

Summary: BTC is in a critical support defense stage, and the gain or loss at the 112000 level will determine the medium-term direction. It is recommended to wait for the PCE data release before making any moves; if it drops sharply below 111000, consider gradually entering long positions, and if it rebounds near 114500, consider reducing positions.