Current Situation: ETH is currently at 4800 points, close to the historical high resistance zone. The 4-hour RSI is at 68, MACD shows a golden cross but momentum is converging. The daily chart has tested the 4800-4850 pressure zone unsuccessfully for three consecutive days, and caution is needed for short-term pullback risks.

Core Long/Short Drivers:

Long Logic:

1. Technical Breakout Expectation: If it stabilizes above 4850 with increased volume, it will open up upward space to 5200.

2. Strong Ecological Fundamentals: Total locked value in Layer2 hits a new high, staking APR stabilizes at 3.8%, attracting institutional funds.

3. Interest Rate Cut Expectation Support: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 90%, continuously providing macro benefits.

Short Risk:

1. Heavy Selling Pressure at Historical High: 4800-4850 is a historically dense trading area. Multiple tests without breaking indicate strong resistance.

2. Overheated Derivatives: Average funding rate of perpetual contracts reaches 0.06%, indicating crowded long leverage.

3. Market Linkage Risk: If BTC loses the key support at 115000, it will drag ETH down.

Key Position:

Support: 4750 (breakout confirmation level), 4680 (20-day EMA dynamic support).

Resistance: 4850 (historical high), 5000 (psychological round number).

Long Strategy:

1. Pullback Long: Wait for the price to stabilize in the 4750-4780 area before placing long orders (stop loss at 4700).

2. Breakout Long: After stabilizing above 4850 with increased volume, pursue long positions (stop loss at 4780, target 5000).

Short Hedge:

Limited to Short-term: If it rises to the 4840-4860 area and the 4-hour KDJ indicates overbought (>90), a small short position can be tried (stop loss at 4900, target 4780).

Risk Control Focus:

1. Leverage Control: ETH volatility continues to amplify, recommended leverage ≤ 3 times.

2. Event Warning: Focus on PCE data on August 30th; if it exceeds expectations, it may suppress interest rate cut expectations.

3. On-chain Monitoring: Track the transfer behavior of whale addresses above 4800 to prevent concentrated selling pressure.

Summary: ETH is in a decisive battle at historical highs. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 4750-4850 range. If it effectively breaks 4850, target 5000. Strict stop-loss is required to guard against false breakout risks.$ETH