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[ETH Trading Strategy | Key Bull-Bear Position Contest]
Current situation: ETH is currently at 4728 points, oscillating and consolidating between 4700-4750 on the daily level. The 4-hour MACD is near the zero axis, and the RSI is at 49, indicating a temporary balance of bullish and bearish momentum. The 4700 integer level has become a short-term dividing line for bulls and bears, and direction choice needs to be monitored.
Core long and short drivers: Bullish logic:
1. Technical support is effective: The 4700 level gathers the 20-day EMA and previous platform support, and on-chain data shows a large number of buy orders accumulating at this position.
2. Positive ecological data: The number of active addresses on the Layer 2 network increased by 15% week-on-week, and low Gas fees benefit ecological development.
3. Continued interest rate cut expectations: Probability of a rate cut in September remains at 90%, and the macro environment continues to support risk assets.
Core long and short drivers: Bullish logic:
1. Technical support is effective: The 4700 level gathers the 20-day EMA and previous platform support, and on-chain data shows a large number of buy orders accumulating at this position.
2. Positive ecological data: The number of active addresses on the Layer 2 network increased by 15% week-on-week, and low Gas fees benefit ecological development.
3. Continued interest rate cut expectations: Probability of a rate cut in September remains at 90%, and the macro environment continues to support risk assets.
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[SOL Trading Strategy | Previous High Pressure Test]
Current Situation: SOL currently reports at 202 points, consistently testing the key pressure zone of 200-205 on the daily chart. The RSI on the 4-hour chart is at 62, and the MACD is flat above the zero axis, with weakening short-term momentum; observation is needed to see if it can break through the 205 previous high resistance with volume.
Core Long and Short Drivers: Long Logic:
1. Strong Ecological Fundamentals: Solana's on-chain TVL remains at a high of 8.6 billion, with a 25% increase in weekly NFT trading volume.
2. Technical Structure Health: Support conversion completed in the range of 195-200, on-chain data shows concentrated buy orders defending the 200 level.
3. Macroeconomic Environment Support: The expectation for a rate cut in September remains at a 90% probability, with continued preference for high-risk assets.
Core Long and Short Drivers: Long Logic:
1. Strong Ecological Fundamentals: Solana's on-chain TVL remains at a high of 8.6 billion, with a 25% increase in weekly NFT trading volume.
2. Technical Structure Health: Support conversion completed in the range of 195-200, on-chain data shows concentrated buy orders defending the 200 level.
3. Macroeconomic Environment Support: The expectation for a rate cut in September remains at a 90% probability, with continued preference for high-risk assets.
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[BTC Trading Strategy | Key Support Defense Battle]
Current Situation: BTC is currently at 112800; after breaking the key support at 115000, it accelerates downward. The 4-hour moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD is below the zero line with a death cross, and RSI has fallen to 38, nearing the oversold area. The short-term technicals are bearish, but caution is needed for a potential oversold rebound.
Core Long and Short Drivers: Long Logic:
1. Oversold Repair Demand: RSI is nearing the oversold area, historical data shows strong support in the 112000-113000 range.
2. Institutional Acquisition Willingness: On-chain data shows a large number of institutional limit buy orders accumulating in the 110000-112000 range.
3. Rate Cut Expectations Support: The expectation of a rate cut in September still holds a 90% probability, with no fundamental change in the macro backdrop.
Core Long and Short Drivers: Long Logic:
1. Oversold Repair Demand: RSI is nearing the oversold area, historical data shows strong support in the 112000-113000 range.
2. Institutional Acquisition Willingness: On-chain data shows a large number of institutional limit buy orders accumulating in the 110000-112000 range.
3. Rate Cut Expectations Support: The expectation of a rate cut in September still holds a 90% probability, with no fundamental change in the macro backdrop.
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[BTC Trading Strategy | Key Support Level Battle]
Current Status: BTC is currently at 115400, at a key watershed on the daily chart. The 4-hour chart is oscillating in the 114800-116800 range, MACD is consolidating near the zero line, RSI is at 52, indicating a brief balance between bulls and bears. The market is still digesting the impact of the Fed's 90% probability of a rate cut in September.
Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers: Bullish Logic:
1. Macroeconomic Support: If subsequent economic data remains moderate, rate cut expectations will continue to support risk assets
2. Institutional Capital Support: Continuous net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, with a large number of institutional buy orders near 115000
3. Technical Structure Intact: The weekly uptrend line (114000) remains intact
Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers: Bullish Logic:
1. Macroeconomic Support: If subsequent economic data remains moderate, rate cut expectations will continue to support risk assets
2. Institutional Capital Support: Continuous net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, with a large number of institutional buy orders near 115000
3. Technical Structure Intact: The weekly uptrend line (114000) remains intact
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[ETH Trading Strategy | Battle for Historical Highs]
Current Situation: ETH is currently at 4800 points, close to the historical high resistance zone. The 4-hour RSI is at 68, MACD shows a golden cross but momentum is converging. The daily chart has tested the 4800-4850 pressure zone unsuccessfully for three consecutive days, and caution is needed for short-term pullback risks.
Core Long/Short Drivers:
Long Logic:
1. Technical Breakout Expectation: If it stabilizes above 4850 with increased volume, it will open up upward space to 5200.
2. Strong Ecological Fundamentals: Total locked value in Layer2 hits a new high, staking APR stabilizes at 3.8%, attracting institutional funds.
3. Interest Rate Cut Expectation Support: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 90%, continuously providing macro benefits.
Short Risk:
1. Heavy Selling Pressure at Historical High: 4800-4850 is a historically dense trading area. Multiple tests without breaking indicate strong resistance.
Core Long/Short Drivers:
Long Logic:
1. Technical Breakout Expectation: If it stabilizes above 4850 with increased volume, it will open up upward space to 5200.
2. Strong Ecological Fundamentals: Total locked value in Layer2 hits a new high, staking APR stabilizes at 3.8%, attracting institutional funds.
3. Interest Rate Cut Expectation Support: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 90%, continuously providing macro benefits.
Short Risk:
1. Heavy Selling Pressure at Historical High: 4800-4850 is a historically dense trading area. Multiple tests without breaking indicate strong resistance.
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[SOL Trading Strategy | Previous High Assault]
🔥 Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers
Bullish Logic:
1. Breakout Momentum Accumulation: SOL ecosystem TVL stays at a high of $8.6 billion, NFT weekly trading volume surged by 40%, strong fundamental support
2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations Support: Federal Reserve's 90% probability of rate cut in September continues to boost preference for high-risk assets
3. Technical Structure Health: 200 has turned from resistance to support, on-chain data shows dense buy orders accumulating in the 202-204 range**
Short Risk:
· Previous High Selling Pressure: The area around 209 is a historical resistance zone, the success rate for the first breakthrough is usually low
· Overheated Leverage: Perpetual contract funding rate reaches 0.08% (in some exchanges), crowded bullish leverage can easily trigger liquidation pullback
Bullish Logic:
1. Breakout Momentum Accumulation: SOL ecosystem TVL stays at a high of $8.6 billion, NFT weekly trading volume surged by 40%, strong fundamental support
2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations Support: Federal Reserve's 90% probability of rate cut in September continues to boost preference for high-risk assets
3. Technical Structure Health: 200 has turned from resistance to support, on-chain data shows dense buy orders accumulating in the 202-204 range**
Short Risk:
· Previous High Selling Pressure: The area around 209 is a historical resistance zone, the success rate for the first breakthrough is usually low
· Overheated Leverage: Perpetual contract funding rate reaches 0.08% (in some exchanges), crowded bullish leverage can easily trigger liquidation pullback
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[BTC Trading Strategy | Rate Cut Game in High Volatility]
Current Situation: BTC currently at 116,500, fluctuating in a historical high range. The 4-hour chart forms a range between 115,000-118,000, with MACD flattening and RSI at 58, indicating a temporary balance between long and short. The market is primarily driven by the Fed's rate cut expectation in September (90% probability), with short-term trends dominated by macro sentiment.
🔥 Core Long-Short Drivers
Long Logic:
1. Rate Cut Expectation Support: If subsequent economic data (especially this week's PCE) is moderate, funds speculating on early rate cuts may continue to flow in
2. Technical Structure Unbroken: 115,000 forms short-term support, daily moving average system remains bullish
🔥 Core Long-Short Drivers
Long Logic:
1. Rate Cut Expectation Support: If subsequent economic data (especially this week's PCE) is moderate, funds speculating on early rate cuts may continue to flow in
2. Technical Structure Unbroken: 115,000 forms short-term support, daily moving average system remains bullish
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【ETH Trading Strategy | Speculating on September Rate Cut Expectations】
Current Situation: ETH currently reports 4813, daily line breaks above the previous high of 4700 and consolidates with reduced volume. The 4-hour RSI is at 62, MACD shows a golden cross but momentum slightly slows, indicating bulls dominate under interest rate cut expectations but are becoming cautious. The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in September.
🔥 Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers
Bullish Logic (Expectation Dominates):
1. Strengthening Rate Cut Expectations: If economic data (especially this week's PMI/employment data) aligns, there is sufficient momentum to speculate on a rate cut in advance
2. Technical Structure Solid: 4700 has turned from resistance to support, the breakout validity is high, and on-chain data shows a large amount of buy orders accumulated at 4750-4780
🔥 Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers
Bullish Logic (Expectation Dominates):
1. Strengthening Rate Cut Expectations: If economic data (especially this week's PMI/employment data) aligns, there is sufficient momentum to speculate on a rate cut in advance
2. Technical Structure Solid: 4700 has turned from resistance to support, the breakout validity is high, and on-chain data shows a large amount of buy orders accumulated at 4750-4780
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[SOL Breakthrough Trading Strategy | Aiming for Previous High]
$SOL Current Status: SOL currently at $199.7, strongly breaking through the previous high resistance of $195, the 4-hour chart shows a bullish alignment of moving averages, MACD golden cross with increased volume, RSI rising to 65 (not overbought), short-term momentum is strong. If the daily close can stabilize above $200, it will open up a new round of upward space.
Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers:
1. Bullish Dominance:
· Technical Breakthrough Valid: A volume breakout above the key resistance of $195 may continue the short squeeze scenario.
· ETF Expectations Strengthened: Market's optimism towards Solana's spot ETF continues to ferment, becoming a core narrative.
· Ecological Hegemony Solidified: DeFi TVL, NFT trading volume, and new protocol launches still lead public chains, with strong fundamental support.
Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers:
1. Bullish Dominance:
· Technical Breakthrough Valid: A volume breakout above the key resistance of $195 may continue the short squeeze scenario.
· ETF Expectations Strengthened: Market's optimism towards Solana's spot ETF continues to ferment, becoming a core narrative.
· Ecological Hegemony Solidified: DeFi TVL, NFT trading volume, and new protocol launches still lead public chains, with strong fundamental support.
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[SOL Intraday Trading Strategy | Staying Close to Key Support]
Current situation: SOL is currently priced at $180.5, accurately touching the key daily support zone ($180-$182). The 4-hour MACD has a death cross below the zero line, but the green bars are decreasing in volume. RSI is approaching 40, indicating a short-term oversold condition with a demand for rebound, but a stabilization signal needs to be confirmed.
Core bullish and bearish drivers:
1. Bullish factors:
· $180-$182 serves as a strong daily support level, including the 20-day moving average and previous high platform, providing a technical basis for a rebound.
· The Solana ecosystem's TVL remains at a historic high (over $8.6 billion), and the fundamentals have not deteriorated.
· If the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are dovish, it may drive a market rebound, and SOL will have greater elasticity.
Core bullish and bearish drivers:
1. Bullish factors:
· $180-$182 serves as a strong daily support level, including the 20-day moving average and previous high platform, providing a technical basis for a rebound.
· The Solana ecosystem's TVL remains at a historic high (over $8.6 billion), and the fundamentals have not deteriorated.
· If the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are dovish, it may drive a market rebound, and SOL will have greater elasticity.
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[ETH Intraday Trading Strategy | Instant Analysis]
Current Situation: ETH is currently at $4229, facing resistance at the $4280 level on the 4-hour chart, with daily support still holding at the key level of $4150. MACD is converging near the zero line, RSI is at 48, with bullish and bearish momentum temporarily balanced, waiting for a direction choice.
Core Bull-Bear Drivers:
1. Bullish Factors:
· The net inflow of Ethereum ETFs remains positive, and institutional holdings are stable.
· If it breaks $4280 or triggers a short squeeze, it could accelerate upward.
2. Bearish Factors:
· The rising expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September suppresses risk assets, putting pressure on the market.
· If it loses support at $4150, it may trigger technical selling, probing down to $4050 (50-day moving average).
Core Bull-Bear Drivers:
1. Bullish Factors:
· The net inflow of Ethereum ETFs remains positive, and institutional holdings are stable.
· If it breaks $4280 or triggers a short squeeze, it could accelerate upward.
2. Bearish Factors:
· The rising expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September suppresses risk assets, putting pressure on the market.
· If it loses support at $4150, it may trigger technical selling, probing down to $4050 (50-day moving average).
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[BTC Intraday Trading Strategy] August 22: Focus on the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, with the $113,000 level becoming a short-term focal point.
The overall market is influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, with trading sentiment being cautious and volatility being high. CME Bitcoin futures main contracts fell 1.63% yesterday.
Core long and short factor analysis
1. Macroeconomic pressures dominate sentiment: This week's core focus is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting (August 21-23), where the market hopes to gain clues about the timing of interest rate cuts. This event has made traders nervous and is the main factor putting pressure on the market recently.
2. Technicals are weak but nearing oversold: The 4-hour BTC chart shows a bearish short-term trend. The RSI indicator is at 34, approaching the oversold zone, indicating a potential technical rebound opportunity in the short term. However, the MACD indicator has crossed below the zero line and entered negative territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Analysts believe that BTC may test support near $111,000 before rebounding.
Core long and short factor analysis
1. Macroeconomic pressures dominate sentiment: This week's core focus is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting (August 21-23), where the market hopes to gain clues about the timing of interest rate cuts. This event has made traders nervous and is the main factor putting pressure on the market recently.
2. Technicals are weak but nearing oversold: The 4-hour BTC chart shows a bearish short-term trend. The RSI indicator is at 34, approaching the oversold zone, indicating a potential technical rebound opportunity in the short term. However, the MACD indicator has crossed below the zero line and entered negative territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Analysts believe that BTC may test support near $111,000 before rebounding.
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【Bitlayer: New Frontier of Bitcoin Ecosystem】As the first Bitcoin Layer 2 built on BitVM and compatible with EVM, Bitlayer Labs is gaining significant attention. Its core token BTR aims to ensure network security and governance. The project emphasizes achieving the same level of security as the Bitcoin mainnet through BitVM, and supports seamless cross-chain native assets. Currently, the ecosystem's TVL has surpassed $150 million, with multiple protocols being deployed. If you are optimistic about the rise of Bitcoin Layer 2, BTR is worth adding to your watchlist. Please note that this project is still in its early stages, highly volatile, and requires careful research. @BitlayerLabs $LAYER
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【Trend Analysis】SOL Contract Long/Short Battle at $186: Key Technical Levels and Macro Game
Good morning, community colleagues. SOL has failed to maintain its independent strong momentum, getting stuck around $186. Like the broader market, its contract market is facing a dual squeeze from macro headwinds and key technical level tests. This post will continue using a structured analytical framework to deeply analyze the current long/short landscape of the SOL contract market from technical, funding sentiment, and macro perspectives.
Core Long/Short Factor Analysis
1. Technical Analysis: Daily trend diverges from four-hour chart
· Daily chart (Daily Chart) - Bullish structure not broken, but showing fatigue: At the daily level, SOL is still in a clear uptrend channel, with the moving average system showing a bullish arrangement. However, prices have consistently formed upper shadows in the historical high region, indicating heavy selling pressure at high levels. The current core support has moved up to the $175-$178 area (MA20 moving average and previous platform), which can be seen as the lifeline of this medium-term trend. If breached, it will trigger a deeper technical pullback, looking down to $165 (MA50).
Core Long/Short Factor Analysis
1. Technical Analysis: Daily trend diverges from four-hour chart
· Daily chart (Daily Chart) - Bullish structure not broken, but showing fatigue: At the daily level, SOL is still in a clear uptrend channel, with the moving average system showing a bullish arrangement. However, prices have consistently formed upper shadows in the historical high region, indicating heavy selling pressure at high levels. The current core support has moved up to the $175-$178 area (MA20 moving average and previous platform), which can be seen as the lifeline of this medium-term trend. If breached, it will trigger a deeper technical pullback, looking down to $165 (MA50).
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$SOL SOL is currently reported at 186 USD, at a crossroads of a short-term battle between bulls and bears. The previous analysis framework needs to be comprehensively updated based on the latest price levels. Below, from both the bull and bear perspectives, combined with key technical levels and market sentiment, we will provide you with a clear trading decision reference.
Plan 1: When the price rebounds to the resistance zone of 189-191 USD and shows obvious signs of stagnation (such as a long upper shadow), take a light short position, with the primary target looking towards 182 USD, a secondary target at 178 USD, and set a firm stop-loss above 195 USD.
Plan 2: If the price retraces to the support area of 180-182 USD and shows a bullish engulfing or hammer candlestick pattern on the 1-hour chart, a light long position can be taken to capitalize on the rebound, with a target of 189 USD and a stop-loss set below 178 USD.
Plan 1: When the price rebounds to the resistance zone of 189-191 USD and shows obvious signs of stagnation (such as a long upper shadow), take a light short position, with the primary target looking towards 182 USD, a secondary target at 178 USD, and set a firm stop-loss above 195 USD.
Plan 2: If the price retraces to the support area of 180-182 USD and shows a bullish engulfing or hammer candlestick pattern on the 1-hour chart, a light long position can be taken to capitalize on the rebound, with a target of 189 USD and a stop-loss set below 178 USD.
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[The battle between bulls and bears in ETH contracts intensifies] The four-hour line faces pressure, the daily trend remains intact, how to position?
$ETH Fellow traders, ETH is stuck around 4300 USD, with both bulls and bears fiercely battling. Simply shouting long or short is irresponsible.
1. Four-hour chart (4H Chart) - Bears currently hold the advantage, key support is critical.
· Pattern: The price has broken below the lower boundary of the short-term rising channel since the end of July, which is a short-term weakening signal. It is currently attempting to build a short-term 'descending flag' or a consolidation platform.
· Key position:
· Resistance: 4350 - 4400 USD (previous support turned resistance, also the lower boundary pressure of the channel)
· Core support: 4200 USD (recently tested low point, also a psychological level). Once effectively broken, short-term downward space will open up, with the next target in the 4050 - 4080 area.
1. Four-hour chart (4H Chart) - Bears currently hold the advantage, key support is critical.
· Pattern: The price has broken below the lower boundary of the short-term rising channel since the end of July, which is a short-term weakening signal. It is currently attempting to build a short-term 'descending flag' or a consolidation platform.
· Key position:
· Resistance: 4350 - 4400 USD (previous support turned resistance, also the lower boundary pressure of the channel)
· Core support: 4200 USD (recently tested low point, also a psychological level). Once effectively broken, short-term downward space will open up, with the next target in the 4050 - 4080 area.
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NewHighOfProfitableBTCWallets
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Bitcoin Wallets Take Profit at the All-Time High?
$BTC
📊 Bitcoin (BTC: $110,332.46, -2.58% #NewHighOfProfitableBTCWallets )
recently hit a fresh all-time high (ATH), sparking debate across the crypto market: Did major wallets cash out, or are they still holding for bigger gains?
🔎 Profit-Taking Behavior at ATH
Whale wallets (holding thousands of BTC) have historically trimmed positions at ATHs. On-chain data shows noticeable spikes in exchange inflows whenever Bitcoin breaks records, confirming that some whales did take profits.
Long-term holders (LTHs), however, rarely sell during highs. For them, Bitcoin represents a long-term store of value — ATHs are milestones, not exit points.
💹 Exchange Activity & On-Chain Signals
Exchange inflows: Slight uptick near ATH → short-term traders locking in gains.
Exchange outflows: Strong outflows continued → signals ongoing accumulation and conviction.
Dormant coins reactivated: Some older coins moved → selective profit-taking from early holders.
👥 Who’s Selling vs. Who’s Holding?
Retail traders: Quick to book profits on ATH rallies.
Institutional investors: More likely to hedge with futures/options rather than sell spot BTC.
Whales: Often take partial profits, but still maintain large positions for the next cycle.
📈 What This Means Going Forward
Profit-taking at ATH is a healthy reset, preventing overheated momentum.
Sustained bull runs often require this balance between selling pressure and fresh accumulation.
The key signal: if whales start reaccumulating after selling, it could confirm confidence in Bitcoin heading toward new record highs.
⚡ Bottom Line: Yes — some wallets took profits at the ATH, but the majority of BTC supply remains tightly held. The market now stands between short-term consolidation and the potential launchpad for the next leg higher.
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