🔥 Core Bullish and Bearish Drivers
Bullish Logic:
1. Breakout Momentum Accumulation: SOL ecosystem TVL stays at a high of $8.6 billion, NFT weekly trading volume surged by 40%, strong fundamental support
2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations Support: Federal Reserve's 90% probability of rate cut in September continues to boost preference for high-risk assets
3. Technical Structure Health: 200 has turned from resistance to support, on-chain data shows dense buy orders accumulating in the 202-204 range**
Short Risk:
· Previous High Selling Pressure: The area around 209 is a historical resistance zone, the success rate for the first breakthrough is usually low
· Overheated Leverage: Perpetual contract funding rate reaches 0.08% (in some exchanges), crowded bullish leverage can easily trigger liquidation pullback
· Market Correlation Risk: If BTC loses the 115,000 support, SOL will face correlated downward pressure
🎯 Key Position
· Support: 202 (breakthrough confirmation level), 198 (20-day EMA dynamic support), 195 (bullish lifeline)
· Resistance: 209 (historical previous high), 215 (Fibonacci extension level)
🚀 Operational Strategy
Bullish Strategy (Buying the Dip Over Buying the High):
· Aggressive Long Position: Current price 206, light position trial long (≤3% position), stop loss at 202, target 209→215
· Steady Long Position: Wait for a pullback to stabilize in the 200-202 area (4-hour chart EMA30 support), stop loss at 197, target 215
· Breakout Buy: Increase long position after a strong hold above 210, stop loss at 205, target 225
Short Hedge Opportunity:
· For Professional Traders Only: If the price rises to 208-209 and a 4-hour chart RSI divergence occurs, a light short position can be taken (stop loss at 212, target 202)
⚡ Risk Control Focus
1. Leverage Control: SOL volatility can reach 15% intraday, suggest leverage ≤3 times
2. Event Alert:
· August 30 U.S. PCE Data (if stronger than expected, will suppress interest rate cut expectations)
· September 6 Non-Farm Data (last key indicator before interest rate cut)
3. On-chain Monitoring: Pay attention to large whale addresses in the SOL ecosystem, especially large transfers above 200