Macro Interpretation: Early this morning, Israel's precision strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military command systems #以色列空袭伊朗 ignited Tehran's vow of revenge to make 'the aggressors pay a heavy price,' while also initiating a silent asset migration in the crypto market. As countries urgently closed their airspaces and diplomatic rhetoric intensified, on-chain data indicated that the 24-hour trading volume of 'gold tokens' PAXG and XAUT exceeded $410 million, validating the safe-haven attributes of digitized gold in the midst of warfare. Bitcoin's performance in this crisis reveals deeper asset logic, #BTC with prices dropping to a critical support level of $102,600 after the outbreak of hostilities; U.S. stocks related to cryptocurrencies generally fell, with #strategy down 2.8%, and Coinbase down 1.89%.
BlackRock's dollar institutional digital liquidity fund (BUIDL) had already shown capital shifts before the conflict broke out—growing 200% to $2.89 billion since March 26, capturing 40% of the tokenized government bond market. As the traditional bond market experiences extreme volatility due to war risk premiums, regulated high-yield cash instruments on the blockchain are becoming a safe haven for institutional funds. This migration is not an isolated phenomenon: the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan' proposed by the Polkadot community aimed to gradually convert 500,000 #dot (approximately $25 million) into decentralized Bitcoin assets tBTC through the Hydration protocol, marking the first systematic allocation of BTC as a risk-resistant asset by public chain treasuries.
CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham's statements at the Coinbase Summit form a stark contrast: the declaration that 'supporting innovation does not equal condoning illegal behavior' denies the overly expansive regulatory logic of the Biden era while clarifying the compliance red line under the Trump administration's open policies. This tendency towards 'depoliticized regulation' coincides with the key trends revealed in Coinbase's research report: the increased likelihood of a soft landing for the U.S. economy and the accelerated allocation of corporate crypto assets create a delicate balance, while stablecoin legislation progress will become the core variable of market structure in the second half of the year. The CFTC's regulatory focus on combating market fraud may accelerate the internal revaluation of the crypto market. The performance divergence between altcoins and mainstream coins becomes increasingly evident during crises, as Coinbase warned that 'altcoin performance is more dependent on individual factors.' This divergence will intensify as the regulatory framework clarifies, with the SEC's decisions on key applications such as physical purchase ETFs, staking mechanisms, and composite funds (expected to be completed by the end of 2025) potentially becoming a watershed moment for altcoin survival.
The Rolling DCA mechanism adopted in the Polkadot proposal automatically executes small DOT-tBTC conversions every 20 blocks, creating compound returns in conjunction with lending functions, showcasing the deep coupling of DeFi and traditional asset management strategies. This 'algorithmic crisis response' innovation, along with the miracle of BlackRock's BUIDL fund tripling in size over 90 days, collectively corroborates the core judgment of the Coinbase report: as macro uncertainty becomes the norm, strategies for automated asset allocation on-chain will reshape the landscape of the asset management industry. The actions of public chains like Polkadot incorporating BTC into their strategic reserves may trigger similar moves from other blockchain projects, forming a historic cycle of 'decentralized organizations increasing their holdings of decentralized assets.'
The smoke-filled streets of Tehran and the quietly operating blockchain nodes at this moment form a special footnote in the evolution of digital civilization. As the Iranian permanent mission to the United Nations submitted an emergency meeting request to the Security Council, the on-chain real-time settlement of government bond tokens was completing value exchanges at a rate of one million times per second; when Trump declared, 'We are ready to protect Israel,' the Polkadot community was still calmly debating whether the proportion of Bitcoin in the treasury allocation should be raised to 3%. This disconnect and coexistence between the physical and digital worlds will ultimately reshape humanity's understanding of wealth security—when sovereign nations draw boundaries with airspace bans, crypto protocols use mathematical rules to build financial bunkers that transcend borders.
Historical turning points often emerge at the intersection of gunfire and code. On June 13, 2025, as Israeli fighter jets drew fire lines across the night sky of the Persian Gulf, the blockchain quietly recorded the collision of two parallel worlds: the old order struggling to maintain itself amid military strikes and economic sanctions, while the new system accelerated its formation through tokenized government bonds and Bitcoin reserve proposals. This crisis will ultimately prove that, beyond sovereign credit and military deterrence, a value storage network based on mathematical rights is becoming humanity's third choice in responding to uncertainty.
BTC Data Analysis:
Influenced by Israel's strikes against Iran, gold prices rose while U.S. stock index futures and the crypto market fell sharply, with BTC dropping to around $102,600 at its lowest. CoinAnk data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the crypto market reached $1.013 billion, of which the liquidation amount for long positions was about $937 million, and for short positions, approximately $75.5 million. The liquidation amount for BTC was $419 million, and for ETH, around $215 million.
The escalation of the Middle Eastern situation has a typical characteristic of geopolitical risk transmission on financial markets, also reflecting the increasing divergence between safe-haven assets and risk assets. Israel's military actions against Iran triggered panic, with gold rising significantly as a traditional safe-haven asset, continuing the historical pattern of 'buying gold in chaotic times' during Middle Eastern conflicts. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures fell across the board, reflecting investors' selling behavior towards risk assets, consistent with the market reaction logic when Iran attacked Israel in April 2024, when the U.S. stock market dropped 475 points in a single day.
Bitcoin plummeted, with the entire network experiencing liquidations of $1.013 billion, of which long positions accounted for 92.4%, highlighting the fragility of leveraged funds during sudden geopolitical events. This phenomenon echoes the historical case of $966 million in liquidations in a single day during the Middle Eastern conflict in April 2024, indicating that the crypto market has not yet escaped its high-risk speculative nature. Notably, the imbalance in long and short liquidations (with long positions exceeding 90%) reflects most investors' misjudgment of the hedging function, with the actual trend diverging from traditional safe-haven asset gold.
Although some studies claim that Bitcoin possesses 'digital gold' attributes, this incident once again validates that during sudden geopolitical crises, cryptocurrencies are more prone to amplify volatility due to liquidity squeezes and leveraged liquidations, and their hedging function remains unstable. The current divergence between gold and cryptocurrency trends essentially reflects the differences in risk pricing between traditional hedging mechanisms and emerging assets, advising investors to be cautious of asset mismatch risks in geopolitical risks.
