Macroeconomic interpretation: The macroeconomic environment provides a fundamental support for crypto assets, but the expectation game is somewhat complex. The latest U.S. CPI for May showed a slight increase of only 0.1% month-on-month, with core CPI at 2.8% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations, indicating that inflation continues to moderate. Following the data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened, boosting traditional risk assets. Some market analysts believe that the slowdown in inflation may lay the foundation for a higher spike, and institutional confidence recovery along with state-level Bitcoin reserve projects may accelerate capital inflow. However, the reality is that the crypto market has reacted relatively restrainedly, with the Fed likely to maintain interest rates unchanged at the June meeting, and the expectation of rate cuts being generally pushed back to after September, with policy uncertainty continuing to suppress bullish momentum.
New progress has been made in China-U.S. economic and trade consultations, with both sides reaching a principled consensus on implementing the leaders' consensus, injecting stability expectations into the global market. More interestingly, the recent domestic political dynamics in the U.S.: Vice President Vance has been actively mediating the relationship between Musk and Trump, emphasizing a “hope to ensure Musk supports the presidential agenda.” Considering Musk's influence in the technology and cryptocurrency fields, this political alliance could have far-reaching impacts on future policy directions. Meanwhile, the U.S. and U.K. have swiftly advanced the 'cars for agriculture' trade agreement, reducing British car tariffs in exchange for U.S. agricultural market access, showcasing the Trump administration's efficient and pragmatic economic strategy.
Regulatory and compliance processes show 'East-West differentiation,' and the wave of institutionalization is irreversible. Singapore's dramatic regulatory policy shift has caused industry turbulence, significantly increasing compliance costs with its 'no transition period' new regulations, forcing some Web3 companies to exit the market. In contrast, the Western regulatory framework is rapidly taking shape: Societe Generale announced it will issue a USD stablecoin in July, and the G7 summit plans to promote multinational crypto asset regulatory cooperation. This divergence confirms that the global crypto ecosystem is undergoing a brutal compliance screening, with deep involvement from traditional financial giants paving the way for institutional development in the industry.
Institutional dominance is expanding and restructuring the market landscape, with stablecoins becoming the vanguard of capital entry. The latest data shows that centralized institutions (including governments, ETFs, and listed companies) have controlled 31% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin, worth as much as 668 billion USD, growing by 924% over the past decade. Among them, exchanges account for a significant share, with the top three entities controlling 65%-90% of the holdings, indicating that early institutions are still leading the market structure. Notably, Bitcoin held by the government 'rarely moves and is decoupled from price cycles,' with its potential influence akin to a sword of Damocles. At the same time, the market capitalization of stablecoins has surged to a record 228 billion USD, with a rapid increase of 33 billion USD (17% rise) in a short time, becoming the core channel for traditional capital entry, benefiting directly from the clarity of U.S. regulations and the explosion of payment scenarios.
Bitcoin hovered around 107,700 USD in June 2025, down about 2.3% from previous highs, while Ethereum remained stable around 2,800 USD. On the surface, the crypto market is experiencing a high-level consolidation, and declining trading volumes reveal cautious capital sentiment. However, a deeper analysis shows that multiple forces are pushing the market toward a new situation. The pre-market decline of U.S. stock crypto concept stocks (such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy down 1%-2%) also reflects market concerns.
In the short term, Bitcoin's consolidation above 100,000 USD is a natural process for the market to digest policy expectations and institutional reallocation. In the medium to long term, three trends are irreversible: the proportion of institutional holdings has crossed the critical point (31%), changing the market volatility logic; the compliance expansion of stablecoins continues to broaden funding channels; and global regulation is shifting from confrontation to establishment, which will eliminate speculative capital. It is worth noting that the Singapore-style regulatory surprise indicates that the sharp rise in compliance costs will become the norm, while the 'silent state' of U.S. government Bitcoin reserves may create expectation differences in the future.
As traditional financial giants deeply bind the crypto market through stablecoins and ETFs, as sovereign nations incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheets, and as political leaders actively embrace crypto opinion leaders. These signals collectively point to one conclusion: Crypto assets are no longer drifting outside the mainstream system, but are seeking a new balance within the institutional framework and capital games. Whether Bitcoin can break through the 120,000 USD mark may depend on the matching of inflation decline and the Fed's pivot timing, but longer-term price discovery will rely on the evolution of institutional holding structures and the ultimate definition of compliance paths by geopolitical factors. The market waits cautiously for the next opportunity for consensus fracture.
BTC 4H market analysis:
According to CoinAnk AI intelligent analysis, the market analysis report is as follows:
Main support level: 106462.07 USD (S1)
Main resistance level: 109512.07 USD (R1)
Current trend: Slightly bearish oscillation
1. Comprehensive technical indicators:
Moving average system: Forming a bearish arrangement, the short-term trend is weak. The current price is below all moving averages, indicating strong resistance above.
MACD: The death cross state continues, with bearish momentum prevailing.
BOLL: The price is running close to the lower band (106481.23), with a %B value of 0.24%, nearing the oversold area, but has not effectively broken through the lower band support. The middle band (108730.52) is sloping down, indicating a slightly bearish medium-term trend.
RSI: RSI6 (29.51) has entered the oversold range, but RSI12 (45.22) and RSI14 (47.44) are still in the neutral zone, with no significant divergence formed, need to be wary of short-term rebounds.
KDJ: K (17.81) and D (31.08) are operating at low levels, with J value (0.00) touching the bottom, indicating a short-term possible rebound demand, but needs to be confirmed with other indicators.
2. Capital and volume-price analysis:
Funding rate: 0.00748900% (neutral), no extreme long or short sentiment has appeared.
Trading volume: Recent declines have been accompanied by increased volume (e.g., trading volume near the 24h low has surged to 76338.48), indicating strong bearish power. The volume during rebounds is insufficient (e.g., the latest 4h K-line trading volume is only 43730.984), lacking sustained buying support.
Capital flow: Contract capital has seen a net outflow of 1083.5M USDT in 24 hours, with a continuous outflow in the short term (5m-12h), indicating leveraged funds are exiting.
Spot capital has seen a net outflow of 140.1M USD in 24 hours, but there has been slight inflow in 4h/6h, possibly signaling buying on dips.
3. Key patterns and behaviors:
The candlestick chart shows consecutive bearish candlesticks breaking previous lows (107259.30), forming a descending channel. The latest 4h candlestick closed with a long upper shadow (108515.1→107358.40), indicating that the rebound encountered resistance, with bears still in control.
Analysis results:
Direction: Cautious wait for a rebound to short (need to be wary of oversold rebounds). Reminder: If the price stabilizes above 108730 (MA20) or RSI6 quickly rebounds above 40, it is necessary to close positions and observe.
Risk warning: Current oversold signals (RSI6, KDJ) may trigger a rebound, strict stop-loss is necessary!
