5/6$ETH Market Trend Analysis

Core Trading Logic

1. Trend Judgment

- Short-term Weakness: After the first dip to 1854, there was no strong rebound. If the daily line closes below this level, it may further test the 1750-1730 support range.

- Key Support Zone: 1750-1730 is a convergence area of multiple daily lows since May 2024, possessing technical buying potential.

2. Long Position Opportunities

- Ideal Entry: Gradually build positions when the price reaches the 1750-1730 range (for example, one order at 1735 and another at 1740), with a stop-loss set below 1720 (effectively breaking below the previous low).

- Rebound Targets:

First Target 1800 (short-term take profit for part of the position);

Second Target 1850-1870 (daily level resistance area, need to observe breakthrough strength).

- Risk-Reward Ratio: Taking an entry at 1730 and a stop-loss at 1720, the potential risk-reward ratio is approximately 1:3 (10 dollars risk vs 30 dollars or more space).

3. Response to Breakouts

- If it breaks below 1720: Confirm support failure, exit short positions, and pay attention to 1660 (March fluctuation platform low), can wait for stabilization signals before re-establishing positions.

4. Auxiliary Strategies and Risk Control

- Bearish Hedge:

If ETH rebounds to the 1850-1870 range and stagnates, a light short position can be taken with a stop-loss at 1885 and a target of 1780.

- Volume-Price Verification:

Stabilization Signal: In the 1750-1730 range, observe for: Long lower shadow candlestick (such as a hammer); Increased trading volume accompanying price recovery.

Breakout Signal: Continuous 4-hour candlesticks closing below 1720, or a volume breakout below 1730.

5 Technical Indicator References

- RSI (Daily): Currently around 40, if it drops to the 30 oversold zone and shows a bottom divergence, rebound probability increases.

- EMA Moving Average: When the 50-day moving average (currently around 1900) crosses below the 200-day moving average forming a 'death cross', be cautious of mid-term adjustment risks.

Note: Current market sentiment is influenced by BTC dominance, and it is necessary to simultaneously monitor whether BTC stabilizes in the 91,600-92,700 range. If BTC breaks out, ETH may decline in tandem.