May 5th $BTC Opinions and Analysis 1. Technical Confirmati | 大大大小王 on Binance Square

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May 5th $BTC  Opinions and Analysis1. Technical Confirmation:
   - After breaking the level, observe the volume changes during the hourly rebound. If the rebound reaches the 95100-95400 range with reduced volume or shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows, engulfing patterns, etc.), consider entering a short position.
   - If the MACD indicator remains below the zero line during the rebound and the histogram shortens, or if the RSI fails to break above the 50 midpoint, it will strengthen the short signal.
2. Key Levels:
   - Resistance Zone: 95100-95400 (previous support turned resistance, Fibonacci 23.6%-38.2% retracement level)
   - Stop Loss Recommendation: Above 95500 (set stop loss 3-5 dollars above the upper breakout range) still allows for shorting above 96400 after stop loss.
   - Target Levels: 94000 (previous low), 93000 (next support level), 91600 (final defense level for bulls)
3. Risk Management:
   - Position size should be controlled at 1%-2% of total capital, ensuring any single loss does not exceed 5% of the account.
   - If the price quickly breaks above 95400 and stabilizes for 1 hour, strict stop loss must be observed.

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5/4$BTC Views and Analysis

Based on the current situation where the Bitcoin price is hovering around 95600, combined with technical analysis, the following are the optimized trading strategies and risk management suggestions:
Key Trading Scenarios and Response Strategies

1. Actions after a four-hour candlestick closes below 95000
- Entry Signal: Wait for the four-hour candlestick closing price to confirm below 95000 (exclude lower shadow interference).
- Initial Positioning: Enter a short position after 95000 is broken, with an initial stop loss set above 96400 (previous resistance level + buffer space).
- Adding to Position on Rebound: If the price rebounds to around 96400 and faces resistance (showing bearish patterns such as pin bar, engulfing, etc.), you can add to the short position, adjusting the stop loss to 97000 (confirming strength by breaking the previous high).
- Target Levels:
First Target 91600 (previous low support), reduce position by 50%;
Second Target 88500 (mid-term support), close the remaining position.

2. Price directly rebounds to around 96400
- High Probability Short Zone: If it bounces back to 96400 without breaking 95000 first, you can directly enter a short position, with a stop loss at 97000, and targets as mentioned above.
- Verification Signal: Observe the rebound momentum (such as RSI overbought, shrinking trading volume) or appearance of topping patterns (double top, divergence).

3. After breaking 95000, if not entered, wait for a rebound to fill the short
- Secondary Entry Point: If you missed the first break, wait for the price to retrace to 95000 (which has turned into resistance) to enter a short position, with a stop loss at 96400, and target at 88500.
- Filter False Breakouts: Confirm that the rebound is weak (small body candlesticks, long upper shadow) before entering.

4. Key Points of Risk Management
- Position Control: Initial position not exceeding 2% of total capital, total risk exposure < 5% after adding positions.
- Dynamic Stop Loss: After the price falls to 91600, move the stop loss down to 95000 (break-even point) to protect profits.
- Breakout Stop Loss Discipline: If the price stabilizes above 96400, strict stop loss is required to avoid holding positions.

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