5/4$BTC Views and Analysis

Based on the current situation where the Bitcoin price is hovering around 95600, combined with technical analysis, the following are the optimized trading strategies and risk management suggestions:

Key Trading Scenarios and Response Strategies

1. Actions after a four-hour candlestick closes below 95000

- Entry Signal: Wait for the four-hour candlestick closing price to confirm below 95000 (exclude lower shadow interference).

- Initial Positioning: Enter a short position after 95000 is broken, with an initial stop loss set above 96400 (previous resistance level + buffer space).

- Adding to Position on Rebound: If the price rebounds to around 96400 and faces resistance (showing bearish patterns such as pin bar, engulfing, etc.), you can add to the short position, adjusting the stop loss to 97000 (confirming strength by breaking the previous high).

- Target Levels:

First Target 91600 (previous low support), reduce position by 50%;

Second Target 88500 (mid-term support), close the remaining position.

2. Price directly rebounds to around 96400

- High Probability Short Zone: If it bounces back to 96400 without breaking 95000 first, you can directly enter a short position, with a stop loss at 97000, and targets as mentioned above.

- Verification Signal: Observe the rebound momentum (such as RSI overbought, shrinking trading volume) or appearance of topping patterns (double top, divergence).

3. After breaking 95000, if not entered, wait for a rebound to fill the short

- Secondary Entry Point: If you missed the first break, wait for the price to retrace to 95000 (which has turned into resistance) to enter a short position, with a stop loss at 96400, and target at 88500.

- Filter False Breakouts: Confirm that the rebound is weak (small body candlesticks, long upper shadow) before entering.

4. Key Points of Risk Management

- Position Control: Initial position not exceeding 2% of total capital, total risk exposure < 5% after adding positions.

- Dynamic Stop Loss: After the price falls to 91600, move the stop loss down to 95000 (break-even point) to protect profits.

- Breakout Stop Loss Discipline: If the price stabilizes above 96400, strict stop loss is required to avoid holding positions.