5/4$ETH Views and Analysis

Key Technology Signal Analysis

1. Pressure Level Confirmation Failure

- The doji pattern at the 1850 pressure level, accompanied by shrinking volume, forms a typical "spring effect," indicating exhaustion of bullish momentum.

- The length of the upper shadow of this doji needs special attention: if it exceeds twice the body, the reversal signal is stronger.

2. Support Structure Analysis

- 1807 support is a recent triple bottom position, holding psychological significance.

- 1780 is the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level (assuming calculated from the recent low of 1650 to 1850).

- 1730 corresponds to the 50% retracement level and 200-hour moving average support.

3. Volume-Price Divergence Phenomenon

- When hitting the pressure level, the volume did not continue to expand, forming a "rising wedge" prototype.

- The volume of the doji at 14:00 needs to be compared with the average of the previous 3 candlesticks; if it's 30% below the average, it confirms weakness.

Multi-Timeframe Validation

- 4-hour chart: MACD histogram shows a top divergence, fast and slow lines are sticking near the zero axis.

- Daily level: Price is still oscillating between the middle band (1820) and the upper band (1880) of the Bollinger Bands.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Conservative Investors:

1. Current price (assuming 1825) can partially close long positions, retaining 20% of the core position.

2. Set a stop-loss when it rebounds after breaking below 1807, with the stop-loss set at 1815 (considering slippage).

3. Plan for a 30% long position when first touching 1730, with a stop-loss below 1700.

Aggressive Traders:

1. Short at the current price, with a stop-loss at 1855 (1% above the pressure level).

2. Target stair-step settings:

- First target 1807 (risk-reward ratio 1:1).

- Second target 1780 (risk-reward ratio 1:2).

- Ultimate target 1730 (risk-reward ratio 1:4).

3. If there is a volume breakout above 1855, switch to long, targeting 1890.